tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-279510782024-03-12T20:02:04.677-06:00IncomingSorting through the information flood for usable knowledge for our farmJohn Phippshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03245790061133614986noreply@blogger.comBlogger3996125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27951078.post-54951118298845176842020-03-18T07:37:00.000-06:002020-03-18T09:19:16.633-06:00<span style="font-size: large;"><b>Looking for food in all the wrong places</b></span><br />
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<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>(Revised 10:20 AM 18 March 2020 - bad math now corrected - I think)</b></div>
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UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="heading 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="heading 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="heading 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="heading 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="heading 9"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="index 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="index 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="index 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="index 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="index 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="index 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="index 9"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="toc 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="toc 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="toc 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="toc 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="toc 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="toc 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="toc 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="toc 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="toc 9"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal Indent"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="footnote text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="annotation text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="header"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="footer"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="index heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="35" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="caption"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="table of figures"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="envelope address"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="envelope return"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="footnote reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="annotation reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="line number"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="page number"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="endnote reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="endnote text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="table of authorities"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="macro"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="toa heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="10" QFormat="true" Name="Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Signature"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="11" QFormat="true" Name="Subtitle"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="FollowedHyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="22" QFormat="true" Name="Strong"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="20" QFormat="true" Name="Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Plain Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="E-mail Signature"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Top of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal (Web)"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Acronym"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Address"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Cite"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Code"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Keyboard"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Preformatted"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Typewriter"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal Table"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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Name="Table Elegant"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="Table Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Placeholder Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" QFormat="true" Name="No Spacing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Revision"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="34" QFormat="true"
Name="List Paragraph"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="29" QFormat="true" Name="Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="30" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 3"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Bibliography"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="41" Name="Plain Table 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="42" Name="Plain Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="43" Name="Plain Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="44" Name="Plain Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="45" Name="Plain Table 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="40" Name="Grid Table Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="Grid Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3"/>
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<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
I’m writing this on Wednesday, 18 March 2020. Restaurants in
Illinois closed to dining-in two days ago, followed shortly by Indiana. We’ve
made all the jokes about having to learn to cook and toilet paper, and I think
we’re about to have a come-to-Jesus moment about how flexible our food system
is.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
This is what woke me up at 3 am. this morning.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgIERMsO4RS5TGAEqBQzUHHG800pfMI0tSeic6Ez7PT7G8XSR2xkrWayUeHdFzFtzRsK1w1M8KWwRzZcnuqSNM_sK4f_bqNnMpCrk9S6cts7fovyYZ5a8NLgreeqQ6NJl-VKtSnuw/s1600/food+out.jpeg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="290" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgIERMsO4RS5TGAEqBQzUHHG800pfMI0tSeic6Ez7PT7G8XSR2xkrWayUeHdFzFtzRsK1w1M8KWwRzZcnuqSNM_sK4f_bqNnMpCrk9S6cts7fovyYZ5a8NLgreeqQ6NJl-VKtSnuw/s400/food+out.jpeg" width="400" /></a><br />
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
We’ve talked about this trend for the last few years, but it
has been little more than an indicator of consumer prosperity, the decline of
cooking, and any other cultural or economic observation one we wanted to validate.
What never crossed our mind – or should have – is what happens when half the
food delivery system is crippled by, say, a pandemic closing restaurants, just
picking a disruptor at random.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
To reach any useful conclusions let’s make some crude engineer-type
approximations. First, money spent on food is not the same as <i>amount</i> of
food. Obviously, food in restaurants is more expensive per calorie or ounce
than a supermarket due to more processing: cooking serving, etc.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
So the first step is to try to estimate how much volume of
food is delivered by each branch. The best numbers I could find for Cost-of-Goods
for supermarkets is ~70%. This figure includes shampoo and yes, toilet paper,
but work with me for a moment.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi2e060NrSgl6W80F1Lk0DpsahJu-h6St5hvPx-T8SSP101wbByxbz__fE3y9QUmc4o-XNq4UaYJa9h_2ADykj2bgjqEXYBSn2DnXBqh4kN6eEynWqfDYQjhVwSqf9lRglidGqDOQ/s1600/Screen+Shot+2020-03-18+at+5.39.11+AM.png" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi2e060NrSgl6W80F1Lk0DpsahJu-h6St5hvPx-T8SSP101wbByxbz__fE3y9QUmc4o-XNq4UaYJa9h_2ADykj2bgjqEXYBSn2DnXBqh4kN6eEynWqfDYQjhVwSqf9lRglidGqDOQ/s400/Screen+Shot+2020-03-18+at+5.39.11+AM.png" width="400" /></a><br />
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
For supermarkets that means about 35% of total food dollars
are spent on actual food. Let’s assume that is roughly indicative of volume.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<a href="https://www.7shifts.com/blog/restaurant-costs/">For
restaurants, food costs can be 25-40%.</a><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnQY6ch1H-B4zFyoUyUKEnBFX80skmz8ApX9jkaJdT7Bw2cS2HdLV2p1UGZ_ZNSz7uz04o6pox8vhJUZEJgEvSFN6_BWnAenBrTw3B6HO13lp9Ubf3lBU2X0a8ly61FFMJ6foE-w/s1600/Restaurant-Operating-Costs-Breakdown.png" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="146" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnQY6ch1H-B4zFyoUyUKEnBFX80skmz8ApX9jkaJdT7Bw2cS2HdLV2p1UGZ_ZNSz7uz04o6pox8vhJUZEJgEvSFN6_BWnAenBrTw3B6HO13lp9Ubf3lBU2X0a8ly61FFMJ6foE-w/s400/Restaurant-Operating-Costs-Breakdown.png" width="400" /></a><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Using 30%, that means 15% of consumer food dollars are used
in restaurants for actual victuals.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The ratio for the two branches is then 15:35, so 30% of food
goes through restaurants and 70% through groceries.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Now let’s look at the restaurant industry structure by type.
Segment analysis of restaurants turns out to be hard to find – or hard for me
to find, anyway. The best I could come up with is ~60% of restaurant sales are “QSR”,
quick-service restaurants. Let’s go with that. This means 18% of food volume is
fast food, and the remaining 12% something else.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Next, how much does loss of dining-in decrease
outside-the-home food delivery? <a href="https://smallbusiness.chron.com/percentage-sales-drive-through-windows-fast-food-restaurants-75713.html">For
McDonald’s drive-thru is about 65%.</a> But other fast food varies from 35-60%.
So say 50% for the whole QSR segment in normal times. How much could they ramp
up? My wild guess is 50% more across the industry so churning this all out
maybe fast food can increase their output to customers. Crunching all these
numbers means QSR drive-thru/pickup (D/P) might be able to expand from 9% of
total food volume to 13% in very round numbers. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
But what about non-QSR? Their D/P is much lower – Olive Garden
and Texas Roadhouse really can’t easily expand D/P and I would think be
reluctant to even try, since the pandemic closures could be over in a few weeks.
I think the 12% of non-QSR food volume will shrivel drastically with loss of
dining-in. Let’s put in 3% for a total of 16% of consumer food dollars (and
hence food) could flow through restaurants.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>The result is instead of 30% food volume from restaurants,
consumers will only be getting at most 16%. The remaining 14% will have to come
from groceries/supermarkets. This would be a throughput jump of 14/70 = 20%.
That’s a whopping step-change for any industry.<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
But wait, I have more bad news. The products between the two
types of food are not interchangeable – no consumer buys hamburger buns in
trays of several dozen like are delivered at McD’s. In fact, many of the ingredients
are specifically made for a given chain, and the recipes carefully protected.
It’s a SPECIAL sauce, remember. Restaurant supply delivery trucks can’t just
divert to the supermarket.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Moreover, the food processing industry will hesitate to
convert production lines to different products with different packaging, ands
could even decide to simply wait out the virus. Nor does this part of the food
chain have a lot of extra capacity sitting idle – price competition has forced
our whole food chain to be as lean as possible [pun intended]. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><i>My semi-informed prediction is this inflexibility chokepoint
for food caused by our bifurcated and specialized food chain will NOT adapt
easily or quickly.</i></b> Wholesale supermarket suppliers will strain capacity
but not expand. Specialized wholesalers will hunker down, lay off, and clamor
for a bailout.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
What does this mean for consumers? Your plans may vary, but
here is my approach.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->Keep in mind that supermarkets will strain for
the duration of restaurant closure to supply consumers. Hoarding and panic
buying will exacerbate this problem.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->Shop often; buy what’s there, keep a list of all
products you normally use and add those of people who need help sourcing food.
Buy what you can when you can. Expand your diet to include stuff that is there.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->If you can afford it, buy premium products
(steaks) and leave low priced groceries (hamburger) for those struggling. <a href="https://92moose.fm/shoppers-should-leave-wic-products-for-eligible-recipients/">DO
NOT BUY “WIC” marked products</a>, unless you are in that program of course. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->If you can afford it, buy drive-through/pickup
more often than usual. This is a headache when you live outside the edible-temperature
zone (20 miles is too far for French fries, for example). Our experience is
fried chicken, pizza, and Chinese can be reheated to palatable condition. Remember
this is where the unused capacity is in the food chain.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->Try not to overbuy. This will be extremely difficult
to resist, especially on your third try to get hamburger or pasta.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->Brace yourself for rudeness, selfishness, and
fear in the supermarket. The <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scarcity_(social_psychology)">scarcity mindset</a>
will take hold faster than you think, since we have little familiarity with shortages
of any kind, let alone food. Remember people’s attitudes during your last long
electricity blackout and multiply by 5. Food has a deep-seated urgency
hard-wired into our brains. Ag’s relentless boasting about our food supply is
about to be revealed as riddled with inherent weakness. Supply we’ve got – but the
links to that supply are perhaps more important.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I think rural America may experience disruption worse than
many places, since our market is already barely served. Watch out for hidden
hunger. Teachers are a great source for finding out what families could use
help. Don’t ask if they need help. Take food over and hand it to them.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The worst part is it will be hard for the system to
re-allocate more than ample supplies because systemic changes could need to be
reversed at any time. Watching COVID19 infection rates may be the best clue as
to when restaurants could re-open, but in areas where they are closed, we are
just beginning to glimpse the strains on the food chain. If the closures last
into summer, food processing and logistics may be forced to realign, bringing
some relief.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
And for farmers, maybe now we will finally realize food is
not just about us. In fact, it’s not much about us. Producing turns out to be
the easy part. <o:p></o:p></div>
<!--EndFragment--><br />John Phippshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03245790061133614986noreply@blogger.com38tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27951078.post-83250576755856771232016-01-20T09:50:00.001-06:002016-01-20T09:50:35.661-06:00<span style="font-size: large;"><b>New Transparenseed Link...</b></span><br />
<br />
<a href="https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20212794/transparenseed216.xlsx">Here</a><br />
<br />
Not much response, but thanks to those who did.<br />
<br />John Phippshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03245790061133614986noreply@blogger.com250tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27951078.post-10246614174220541232016-01-20T07:37:00.000-06:002016-01-20T07:37:41.977-06:00<span style="font-size: large;"><b>Memories of a similar time...</b></span><br />
<br />
I linked to an old Top Producer column from 2004 in my post on <a href="http://johnwphipps.blogspot.com/2016/01/accountable-ag.html">Accountable Ag</a>. When checking the link, I read through it, and almost <b>recaptured how I felt twelve years ago</b>. For those of you who did not click through, here is how I saw the world then:<br />
<br />
<br />
<div class="p1" style="text-align: center;">
<span class="s1" style="background-color: #d9ead3;"><i><b>Left behind – and I’m not enraptured</b> </i></span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1" style="background-color: #d9ead3;"><i><br /></i></span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1" style="background-color: #d9ead3;"><i>Being in the middle of groups has a naturally comforting feel. Looking at the ubiquitous newspaper pie charts indicating public sentiment on everything from trade issues to toilet paper, we often are relieved when others agree with our opinion. </i></span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1" style="background-color: #d9ead3;"><i>More frequently, however, I find myself tending to the margins – holding positions that are mildly out of the mainstream. On a few issues I seem to have wandered into the fringe. The manly response is to assert loudly that I don’t care about the opinions of the masses; that I am an independent thinker. This is nonsense, of course – we all care about what others think. This separation can occur not only when I adopt unpopular beliefs, but also when mass opinion shifts and I do not. In the realm of popular issues, I am less alarmed. I don’t watch enough TV to keep up with rapidly shifting controversies. Howard Dean came and went before I really had formed a judgment, for example. The situations that perplex me are not spelled out in polls but corporate decisions or organizational policy signals. </i></span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1" style="background-color: #d9ead3;"><i>For example, I have been a happy owner of a Case 2366 combine. It is the largest combine I have ever owned and its performance has been more than I hoped, not withstanding the unloading auger-power pole incident which I now admit was not a design flaw. Its capacity is more than enough for our 1350 acres. </i></span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1" style="background-color: #d9ead3;"><i>I was stunned to hear that CNH will not be continuing this machine size, only larger harvesters. To me it indicated I was no longer a target market for them. I do not fault their marketing, but all the charts and graphs about where farm size is going don’t begin to have the impact of discovering your operation is too small to be of interest to long-term suppliers. </i></span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1" style="background-color: #d9ead3;"><i>Nor am I whining about loyalty. I have to make reciprocal decisions to protect my own business viability as well. Nonetheless it is a sobering wakeup call to my self-serving view of the world to find that agriculture is moving on without me. </i></span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1" style="background-color: #d9ead3;"><i>A similar incident occurred at the AFBF (Farm Bureau) meeting recently. It has been a singular privilege to have been active in Farm Bureau at numerous levels, and I have many valued friends in the organization. I am fairly familiar with their policy from my days as a county president. One of these positions was a firm belief that free trade optimizes the outcome for all involved. </i></span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1" style="background-color: #d9ead3;"><i>This changed in 2004. The AFBF delegate body approved a blatantly protectionist stance on selected commodities. Although the vote was razor thin, the fact that any majority at all was assembled revealed to me how far from the pack I was. Of course this is just one issue, but added to other subtle shifts lately, I think we are “drifting apart”, to use modern relationship jargon. </i></span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1" style="background-color: #d9ead3;"><i>Nor is it a direction I wish to go to in order to stay in the group. Loyalty to core beliefs is often more important than loyalty to groups or individuals. Farm Bureau shrewdly makes it difficult to register my disapproval by binding insurance policies to membership. Finding a new insurance agent when I really like the one I have is another hurdle altogether. So as far as the membership statistics the outside world sees, I remain another happy Farm Bureau member satisfied with policy decisions. </i></span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1" style="background-color: #d9ead3;"><i>To be sure, I have the option of mounting a grass-roots campaign to reverse this decision, but frankly, I sense the weight of insurance customers moving in the opposite direction. My best use of time is probably to start pricing a new farm policy. Either way, I am obviously no longer in sync with much of my profession. </i></span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1" style="background-color: #d9ead3;"><i>The latest jolt though, was President Bush’s 2005 budget. My position on the political chart has always been in the conservative Republican camp. This is where I thought the guy I voted for was anchored as well. But if planning more tax cuts in the face of $500B deficits, erecting trade barriers for politically powerful industries, attacking sincere dissent as craven disloyalty are the beliefs of conservative Republicans today, then I must be something else. Maybe I’m a liberal…Republican. I’ve heard there may be as many as 6 or 7 of us. </i></span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1" style="background-color: #d9ead3;"><i>Now all these perceptions could simply be fusty middle-aged crankiness. Perhaps I am just not well-informed or smart enough to understand my principles are outdated. Regardless, my painfully-acquired intellectual tools and moral compass are all that I have to guide my decisions. CNH, Farm Bureau, and the Republican Party are going where my conscience or circumstances prohibit. I suspect they won’t miss me at all. </i></span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1" style="background-color: #d9ead3;"><i>Nevertheless, I shall miss them. </i></span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1" style="background-color: #d9ead3;"><i><br /></i></span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1" style="background-color: white;">It is important to note <b>I was mistaken about CNH</b> - I did not know they were simply rolling out Class V and VI combines after the big boys. But not knowing this put a different machine on our farm.</span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1" style="background-color: white;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1" style="background-color: white;">Given the continued and intensified rightward drift of FB and its domination by insurance votes from the south, it may be well past time for me to switch to another insurance company. (Nope - still haven't moved) For that matter, I could be paying way too much for farm insurance for all I know.</span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1" style="background-color: white;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1" style="background-color: white;">Finally, to admit to being even a liberal Republican after the last few weeks makes me queasy. This is the party I should be affiliated with? I don't think I'm angry enough to fit in, and my interest in policy and problem-solving fits poorly with a group fascinated by passion and pessimism. </span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1" style="background-color: white;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1" style="background-color: white;">Heck, I'm probably embarrassing <b><i>them</i></b>!</span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1" style="background-color: white;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1" style="background-color: white;"><br /></span></div>
John Phippshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03245790061133614986noreply@blogger.com13tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27951078.post-42565136391512253562016-01-19T15:03:00.001-06:002016-01-19T16:10:15.459-06:00<span style="font-size: large;"><b>What the heck is Beck's Seed doing?...</b></span><br />
<br />
I am clearly out of the undergound ag rumor circuit, so I have only caught dibs and drabs of agribiz doings as I speak across the Midwest. And after a certain age, you distill most of those whispers down before acceptance.<br />
<br />
But Chip Flory talked about a new Beck's incursion into Iowa recently on AgriTalk Free-For-All, and today I learned they bought <b>a nearby former Syngenta seed processing facility in Paris, IL</b>. This is really <a href="http://www.agprofessional.com/news/beck%E2%80%99s-purchases-former-syngenta-facility-paris-ill">good news for my area</a>, but makes me wonder why Beck's seems to be charging ahead when other seed companies are seemingly cutting back.<br />
<br />
I'm not offering answers - just soliciting input.<br />
<br />
<b><i>Did I miss a memo?</i></b><br />
<br />John Phippshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03245790061133614986noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27951078.post-1876670346636437612016-01-18T17:18:00.001-06:002016-01-19T07:21:23.548-06:00<span style="font-size: large;"><b>Monday Fun Read: Chapter 12 Bankruptcy...</b></span><br />
<br />
A brief <a href="https://twitter.com/jwphipps/status/689122819247046656">Twitter exchange</a> prompted me to brush up on my farm bankruptcy basics. As is now too often the case, what I thought I knew was shaky, and what I didn't know/remember considerable.<br />
<br />
First, I hazily remember farmers getting their own special category of bankruptcy during the depths of the '80s.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="background-color: #d9ead3;"><span class="s1"><b><i>Chapter 12 Bankruptcy: Adjustment of Debts of a Family Farmer with Regular Income</i></b></span><span class="s1"><i>Chapter 12 Bankruptcy provides debt relief to family farmers with regular annual income. Chapter 12 Bankruptcy is very similar to Chapter 13 Bankruptcy because both of these bankruptcy options allow the debtor to propose a plan of debt repaymentover a period of three to five years, as well as a trustee is assigned to the case who is responsible to oversee the bankruptcy process and disbursement of payments to the creditors. Chapter 12 Bankruptcy allows a family farmer to continue to operate the farm while the plan is being carried out. [<a href="http://www.the-bankruptcy-directory.com/overview.html">More</a>]</i></span></span></blockquote>
<br />
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"> The biggest differences are debt limits, costs, and creditor rights. In Chapter 12 all these favor the farmer more than the alternatives. A partial summary:</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"><br /></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVcoIh-S5Q79rRRwxg7VHUIBnm0nDtfrlD8h3mUxjxbpOD4guESTBcU0va6IEh5zCAje7KPQyEsV8zF19C6oN3zTRU01RsohsUaz_ObZvC99AeuJE5tKun-vNRLnY3lD1q-xEsrg/s1600/BTHPC-Bankruptcy-Eligibilty-Comparison-Table.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVcoIh-S5Q79rRRwxg7VHUIBnm0nDtfrlD8h3mUxjxbpOD4guESTBcU0va6IEh5zCAje7KPQyEsV8zF19C6oN3zTRU01RsohsUaz_ObZvC99AeuJE5tKun-vNRLnY3lD1q-xEsrg/s400/BTHPC-Bankruptcy-Eligibilty-Comparison-Table.jpg" width="361" /></a></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"><br /></span></div>
<div class="p2">
[<a href="http://hemphill-attorney.com/bankruptcy-eligibility-can-i-file-bankruptcy/">Source</a>][click image to embiggen]</div>
<div class="p2">
<br /></div>
<div class="p2">
Some more detail (11, 12, 13 - l to r):</div>
<div class="p2">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgMv9mhJrT3_tiAmqiMBmvuM2p_aedSvBgvojmxvITDbcCAi0XMXVb8oCMkizuixEcyYbInuaoXJ-mperiEdVtfNJiBHpIvNvFuSPIhyphenhyphenhfxds0vnWQ7dzwaJdSP1ViXTZWG33LP8g/s1600/Screen+Shot+2016-01-18+at+4.27.13+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgMv9mhJrT3_tiAmqiMBmvuM2p_aedSvBgvojmxvITDbcCAi0XMXVb8oCMkizuixEcyYbInuaoXJ-mperiEdVtfNJiBHpIvNvFuSPIhyphenhyphenhfxds0vnWQ7dzwaJdSP1ViXTZWG33LP8g/s400/Screen+Shot+2016-01-18+at+4.27.13+PM.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<div class="p2">
<br /></div>
<div class="p2">
[<a href="http://www.ers.usda.gov/media/479214/aib788_1_.pdf">Source</a>]</div>
<div class="p2">
<br /></div>
<div class="p2">
The other thing that I noticed is <span style="color: #38761d;">creditors don't get to approve Ch 12 plans - only the trustee</span> (court appointed). This prevents battles between creditors forcing dissolution.</div>
<div class="p2">
<br /></div>
<div class="p2">
This whole discussion began when lawyers pressed the Chair of the Senate Judicial Committee.</div>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="background-color: #d9ead3;"><span class="s1"><i>With agricultural lenders fearing a tidal wave of farm bankruptcies as soon as this spring, lawyers in the Midwest say they want U.S. Senator Chuck Grassley of Iowa to raise the debt limit for so-called "family farmer" bankruptcies.</i></span><span class="s1"><i>Farmers in states like Illinois, Indiana and Iowa are scrambling to secure lending for the 2016 growing season at a time when prices for their corn have halved from three years ago.</i></span><span class="s1"><i>Many younger farmers, who tend to be more cash poor than their elders, are expected to be among the hardest hit by stubbornly high input costs such as fertilizer and seeds and souring export sales.</i></span><span class="s1"><i>As they seek restructuring advice, many are told their debts surpass the $4 million limit for a Chapter 12 family farm bankruptcy, said at least five lawyers who represent either debtors or creditors.</i></span><span class="s1"><i>They say the $4 million cap is out of touch with most farms' current operating size, often thousands of acres of land paid for by expensive leases and worked using tractors that can cost more than $250,000.</i></span><span class="s1"><i>"The debt limit for Chapter 12 bankruptcies should be raised to at least $10 million," said Joseph Peiffer, a bankruptcy attorney in Cedar Rapids, Iowa. [<a href="http://www.agprofessional.com/news/fearing-wave-bankruptcies-us-corn-belt-wants-new-debt-cap">More</a>]</i></span></span></blockquote>
<div class="p2">
</div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1">I'm not sure if Grassley is hearing increased rumors of rising numbers of farmers seeking debt relief, but this move is rooted in a familiar pattern: <b>farmer wealth is not like other wealth</b>.</span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"><br /></span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1">This makes no sense economically or financially, but it sure resonates with farmer feeling of exceptionalism. It is the same bias that generates disturbingly self-righteous statements about estate taxation, for example. Our wealth (land) is different because we use it for our way of life, unlike mere stocks or cash. (<a href="https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20212794/TP%20archives/pdf/Have%20cake.pdf">I've dealt with this in TP before</a>).</span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"><br /></span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"><i>But that's an old debate.</i> What is more useful perhaps is to <b>see if this is a fight worth having</b>. Do farmers use Chapter 12 often? Are we going to battle for a tiny number? More to the point, does CH 12 have better results?</span></div>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="background-color: #d9ead3;"><span class="s1"><i>Farmer bankruptcies have always been a very small proportion of total farm numbers. Bankruptcies have been relatively more numerous, as would be expected, in periods of farm sector financial problems following periods in which debt had increased substantially. But the farmer bankruptcy cases per year are typically less than 0.1 percent of the total number of farmers and are measured in bankruptcies per 10,000 farms. The number of farmer bankruptcies occurring from year to year appears to lag behind the movement of farm prices, farm income, and other economic conditions that are the primary causes of insolvency. </i></span><span class="s1"><i>Bankruptcy law is a blunt policy instrument overhanging the workings of the credit markets, rather than being finely tuned to specific subgroups. Bankruptcies occur during both prosperous and troubled economic times, but the effect of the law obviously is much more noticeable when times are hard. <b>Chapter 12 has allowed some financially stressed farmers to continue farming, but the shortrun gain to financially stressed farmers comes at the expense of some creditors and, ultimately, other borrowers.</b> </i></span><span class="s1"><i>Chapter 12, a special section in the Bankruptcy Code enacted in 1986 in response to the farm financial crisis, was originally scheduled to expire on October 1, 1993. But it has been extended 10 times and has succeeded in keeping some farmers in business and encouraged informal lender-farmer settlements out of court. However, it increases costs by encouraging both inefficient farmers who would otherwise liquidate and efficient farmers who would otherwise continue their operations at greater expense to reorganize their businesses and charge off part of their debts under the protection of bankruptcy. Some of these costs could be mitigated by allowing lenders the option of recapturing writedowns of secured debt if asset values increase subsequent to the writedown. </i></span><span class="s1"><i>Chapter 12 gives family farmers in financial stress more power to demand concessions from lenders than does Chapter 11. Chapter 12 was not necessarily designed to frame creditor negotiations, but it has had that effect. Under Chapter 11, where farmers desiring to reorganize typically filed before Chapter 12 became effective, creditors could more easily block the debtor’s plan and force liquidation. The availability of Chapter 12 to eligible farmers encourages creditors to negotiate debt-restructuring arrangements outside bankruptcy. But the effect may also include lenders’ restricting credit and raising interest rates to some degree. The decreasing discharge rate over time may indicate that more farm debtors are negotiating successfully with their creditors outside of Chapter 12. </i></span><span class="s1"><i>Chapter 12 thus has had a larger historical impact than what is indicated by the number of cases filed annually. The threat of possible Chapter 12 actions by farmers is an enduring possibility facing agricultural lenders. But debt-restructuring laws, such as Chapter 12, requiring debt writedown do not necessarily mean higher loan losses, as long as the value of restructured debt is greater than the amount the lender would receive through foreclosure. However, the risk of future default on the restructured debt is still present, and is an unknown cost to the lender. Because the lender in Chapter 12 loses the opportunity to recoup loan losses when restructured loan collateral appreciates in value, <b>these higher costs are borne by the lender</b>. [<a href="http://www.ers.usda.gov/media/479214/aib788_1_.pdf">More</a>][<b>My emphasis</b>]</i></span></span></blockquote>
<div class="p1">
</div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"><b><span style="color: #38761d;">So, unless Sen Grassley has reason to think a much larger than usual numbers of large farmers are in serious difficulties, this looks to me like simple constituent politics. Perhaps some powerful farm donors have whispered in his ear, but without more information this seems like a gift to a favored few producers ( and their lawyers).</span></b></span></div>
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John Phippshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03245790061133614986noreply@blogger.com43tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27951078.post-50339812757892470392016-01-13T09:30:00.000-06:002016-02-14T12:46:20.284-06:00<span style="font-size: large;"><b>Accountable Ag...</b></span><br />
<br />
The longer I watch the <a href="http://johnwphipps.blogspot.com/2015/07/what-am-i-missing.html">WOTUS hysteria</a> roll on, the more convinced I am that farmers want nothing less than blanket immunity from pollution that occurs from their actions. In addition, we adamantly refuse to take any responsibility for anthropogenic climate change or even acknowledge that there are inherent production risks that should be coped with individually like other businesses do - insisting on heavily subsidized crop insurance and other economic guarantees we despise in other industries. We have become a fact-resistant echo-chamber that inhibits new ideas and supports an incredibly boring one-sided discussion of our future.<br />
<br />
Our new motto as an industry: <b>Nothing Is Our Fault</b>. To be fair, this rather juvenile intransigence has worked pretty well, even as we brag about being the best farmers in the galaxy. But it is taking an increasing toll.<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>We are neutralizing the economic tools that select within our ranks the best-performing farmers. If we are shielded from dealing with the costs of lobbing <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Externality">economic externalities</a> to the public purse via farm policy, we actually penalize producers who do work to minimize the effects of their actions on those around them - from noise to nitrates. We've all grumbled about or been run over by slash-and-burn competitors whose presence next to you impacts other producers, soil health, and community life quality, and yet at the same time railed against any effort to make the consequences of bad actions fall at the feet of the perpetrators. While I believe this will eventually be corrected, it will take decades and require heavy lifting to rebuild the resources we now abandon at the altar of personal freedom. At the same time, we are enabling such operators to expand at our own expense.</li>
<li>Just like the Republican Party, we have made team loyalty the highest ethic. I had my epiphany <a href="https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20212794/TP%20archives/pdf/left%20behind.pdf">in 2004</a>, but this November may be a watershed moment for ag conservatives as they step into the voting booth. If parroting the party line - or Trumpisms - takes precedence over moral judgment and economic rationality, we need to abandon, at least in our own minds, any pretense of principle. We believe in<b><i> apparent short-term gain</i></b>. Period. Worse still, from my perspective we are bad at calculating what that gain actually is.</li>
<li>Our insistence on being counted as victims is not simply a <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cognitive_dissonance">cognitive dissonance</a> challenge as we strut about looking down at everyone who doesn't farm, it also prevents us from innovating answers to the real problems that we struggle with. Why work on soil erosion if nutrient runoff is really caused by climate change [which doesn't exist]? (I have had this argument seriously posed to me, BTW) But posing as hapless dupes or helpless pawns to avoid responsibility is an exhausting and humiliating deception that erodes our self-respect and ravages our heritage of self-reliance. Great-grandpa would be aghast.</li>
</ul>
<div>
Personally, I have been reluctant to put this train of thought into words. It is part of the reason I found blogging more a chore than before. It will only test the few friendships I cherish within the business. It seems high-handed and preachy, not to mention self-aggrandizing. So for these past few months I have assumed my simmering resentment against what I see as the hijacking of our professional ethics by right-wing know-nothings a temporary aberration of our history.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
I still think that, but it has dawned on me as I listen to the the increasingly strident language of outraged entitlement in our industry, that those other times in history when we veered from the path of reason and compromise were not corrected solely by the passive passage of time, but by real people offering real resistance to something they believed wrong and harmful.</div>
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<br /></div>
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And like Obama, I don't have many f***s left to give. [Pardon the language but it strikes me as the most apt]</div>
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That said, it is not enough to simply find fault, or shout in anger. <b><i>I'm a frickin' engineer/farmer - we try to fix things</i></b>. So here is a different approach/mindset for our business that I think offers all of us a chance to regain our self-respect.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
I call it <b>Accountable Agriculture</b>. Here is what it means.</div>
<div>
<ol>
<li><b>On my farm, it's my fault. </b>All of it. My farm is my responsibility. Not USDA. Not Mother Nature. It is my job to manage the risks of weather, markets and economics of production. This is how I earn my living. Conversely, I claim no right to decree what rules are right for other farms and producers. </li>
<li><b>The impact of my actions shall be benign beyond the boundaries of my farm</b>. If my spray drifts, you will get an apology for unprofessional performance and compensation to make you whole without anger or hassle. If my P & N pollutes your water, I will find an answer. Moreover, I will not support blanket absolution for our industry when we overreach into your property by irresponsible production practices.</li>
<li>I have a duty to sustain <b><span style="color: #38761d;">not just fertile fields, but clean water and clear air</span></b>. I use natural resources to produce and I take care of all those assets.</li>
<li>I am equally indebted to those who walked this land before me and those who follow. For the extraordinary privilege of living this life, I deserve to be judged by my payments on those debts.</li>
<li>My commitment to these principles is the same on every acre I tread, whether owned or rented. This level of performance is not without cost, so I will probably not be the absolute highest bidder for every field. This is a relatively cheap promise, since owners who demand the top dollar usually aren't worth the anxiety load. There has to be some "economy" in those "economies of scale".</li>
<li>Regardless of how agriculture strives to offload the costs of accountability, we cannot escape them over the long haul economically or ethically. Accountable agriculture thinks in terms of decades and generations, not USDA fiscal years.</li>
<li>I don't want to tell you my story. <b>Accountable agriculture is measured by works, not words.</b></li>
<li>I choose my policy and political positions by balancing what is fair not just for me but for the rest of America. I know farming is a tiny part of our population and economy, but like other tiny industries, we still matter, and so do they. I respect others who serve their professions with integrity and diligence - including government.</li>
<li>My professional standards are informed by my faith, but not defined by religious dogma. Additionally, my position in our national and global culture does not grant me any relief from full accountability. I had no hand in being born white and middle-class, after all. </li>
<li>This is my path. You may have a better idea. I'd like to hear about it, and how it's working for you. Fair warning: I have no compunctions about stealing your best ideas if they make more sense than mine.</li>
</ol>
<div>
This post could fairly be seen as just another rant by a fringe wacko. No problem. It has been tremendously liberating to compose however, and I don't plan in inflicting it <i>ad nauseum</i> in the future.</div>
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Feel free to comment/criticize. I don't care to argue, however. Nobody changes their mind anymore.</div>
John Phippshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03245790061133614986noreply@blogger.com23tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27951078.post-77003037261522599032016-01-11T09:24:00.004-06:002016-01-20T09:48:54.728-06:00<span style="font-size: large;"><b>Transparenseed 16 - still trying...</b></span><br />
<br />
<b>I'm struggling to keep promises. </b><br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>TV takes more time than I thought.</li>
<li>Twice weekly AgriTalk Free-For-Alls (Tues/Fri) </li>
<li>Land purchase details</li>
<li>Close out old year and plan 2016</li>
<li>More speeches than I anticipated</li>
<li>Tweeting/following timeline (@jwphipps)</li>
<li>Trying to get back to Incoming</li>
<li>Transparenseed 16</li>
<li>Woodworking!</li>
</ul>
<div>
I changed <b>Transparenseed</b> to a <a href="https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20212794/transparenseed216.xlsx">public DropBox file</a> you can check whenever you want. </div>
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Please encourage others to<a href="http://johnwphipps.blogspot.com/2015/12/transparenseed-2016.html"> send in info</a>. I'll be emailing past players.</div>
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Thanks for you help.</div>
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<b><i><span style="color: #38761d;">Is this what retirement is supposed to look like?</span></i></b></div>
John Phippshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03245790061133614986noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27951078.post-37847634344487621492015-12-24T12:11:00.001-06:002015-12-24T12:11:53.429-06:00<span style="font-size: large;"><b>Try as I might...</b></span><br />
<br />
I cannot post with an iPad. Tap tap tap ...<br />
<br />
I'll be back home 12/26 and will explain the republican primary race, who is most likely to crash in Ag in 2016, and the meaning of life.<br />
<br />
Meanwhile send in your seed prices, please.John Phippshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03245790061133614986noreply@blogger.com9tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27951078.post-11685340380196831402015-12-20T08:32:00.003-06:002015-12-20T08:32:41.649-06:00<span style="font-size: large;"><b>Learning to love climate change...</b></span><br />
<br />
Stay with me here. My compadres on <a href="http://www.agweb.com/agritalk/">AgriTalk</a> are no strangers to climate change denial. In fact, Chip recently invoked a classic counterpoint: natural causes. Luckily there has been enough research done <a href="http://www.skepticalscience.com/its-not-us-advanced.htm">to put that to bed</a>.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjaZxoPA9PSPZAWy9dvqt5C2crWRZmy-rCJTKeYOXUH7F4Xr_EhM3EoelSnrdrKV0T1ReRyZpuJ2X_ZCSApgtDZ7jkS-ODXxfR4ocVYlIp_vo9RTYIqWfd3Y76fR4xi-iyDhyphenhyphenGm2Q/s1600/Attribution50-65.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="271" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjaZxoPA9PSPZAWy9dvqt5C2crWRZmy-rCJTKeYOXUH7F4Xr_EhM3EoelSnrdrKV0T1ReRyZpuJ2X_ZCSApgtDZ7jkS-ODXxfR4ocVYlIp_vo9RTYIqWfd3Y76fR4xi-iyDhyphenhyphenGm2Q/s400/Attribution50-65.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<br />
Mostly I'm noticing many farmers in various levels of the classic climate change<a href="http://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2013/sep/16/climate-change-contrarians-5-stages-denial"> 5-Step Program</a>.<br />
<br />
<ol>
<li>Deny the problem.</li>
<li>OK, there's a problem, but we're not the cause.</li>
<li>OK, it's happening and we're the big cause but we'll just adapt.</li>
<li>OK, it's real and we cause it, but it's too big to fix.</li>
<li>OK, it's real, we cause it, but it's too late.</li>
</ol>
<br />
Mostly I just avoid the issue for now. But regardless where producers are, Sen. Grassley made a curious statement that I think <b>could change a lot of farmer minds</b> overnight.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="background-color: #d9ead3;"><span class="s1"><i>Grassley said the Resource Conservation Act, requiring some conservation practices with government programs, has led to reduced soil erosion and loss of nutrients with it.</i></span><span class="s1"><i>"That's one example where the law works. But where a law isn't going to work: Do people think government can do anything when it's going to rain 10 inches?</i></span><span class="s1"><i>"It's not the fault of the farmer. God determines if it's going to rain 10 inches. It's a little like EPA wanting to establish a rule over fugitive dust," an abandoned proposal that would have required farmers to limit how much dust they create. "Do you realize that only God determines when the wind blows? And when soybeans are 13 percent (moisture), you have to combine. And when you combine, you're going to have dust.</i></span><span class="s1"><i>"You can't have some silly regulation out of Washington, telling you what to do and what not to do," Grassley said. [<a href="http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/money/2015/11/23/grassley-regulations-cant-control-god/76257732/">More</a>]</i></span></span></blockquote>
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<div class="p1">
<b><span style="color: #38761d;">It's only a small step from here to blaming nutrient runoff on climate change.</span></b> In the process, I think a lot of farmers would like to finally get past the uncomfortable anti-science position that currently passes for ag dogma on climate change. If we can dodge responsibility for where our fertilizer and manure end up, then a) we can argue we shouldn't have to stop doing what we want, and b) if we do, somebody else (like, say taxpayers) should pay us to do so. </div>
<div class="p1">
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<div class="p1">
Since it's not our fault.</div>
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<div class="p1">
It's Climate Change.</div>
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<div class="p1">
Which we would have always believed in, but it just wasn't explained to us right.</div>
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<span class="s1"><br /></span></div>
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John Phippshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03245790061133614986noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27951078.post-60695744460202423352015-12-19T08:33:00.001-06:002015-12-19T08:33:46.083-06:00<span style="font-size: large;"><b>Twitter is not enough...</b></span><br />
<br />
I going to try to fire <b><i>Incoming</i></b> up again. Maybe I just needed a rest, but it is also my research file so I can find stuff I've pondered. No promises, but also please follow me on Twitter (@jwphipps) for quick links to stuff.<br />
<br />
Thanks for all the support.John Phippshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03245790061133614986noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27951078.post-42469344571148778612015-12-19T08:13:00.003-06:002015-12-19T08:54:46.826-06:00<span style="font-size: large;"><b>TransparenSeed 2016 (revised)...</b></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Although I was not encouraged by the response to <a href="http://johnwphipps.blogspot.com/2015/06/tranparenseed-ii-improved.html">the original idea</a>, I've had lots of bad ideas before, and was not particularly surprised. But over the last few weeks I'm hearing all kinds of rumors about deep discounts in seed prices: Becks in IA, for example. And then Jim burbled about deep discounts from clients at his meetings <a href="http://www.agweb.com/agritalk/">(FFA 12/18)</a>*.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">So here's the deal. <b><span style="color: #38761d;">I'm going to try it again</span></b>. If you <a href="mailto:transparenseed@gmail.com">send me</a> info about your seed prices - just the numbers, I'll take your word - you will receive NOT ONLY periodic updates as new info comes in BUT ALSO my coveted <b><i><span style="color: red;">Christmas 2015 Newsletter</span></i></b> (suitable for framing). [Your email address will not be sold or leave my gentle care].</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">To get more accuracy for comparison, please use the following format:</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><b>Company - Hybrid Number - Traits - Seed Treatment - Cost (80K) - Pay Date - Location - Any Special Notes</b></span><br />
<br />
So an entry will look like:<br />
<br />
<b>Pioneer - 1939 - HX, LL, RR2, RSVP - Ponchivo XP - $485.70 - Jan pay - ECIL - 60K bags, special deal from brother-in-law dealer</b><br />
<br />
Frankly put, unless there is some transparency in this market, it will become as non-functional as <a href="https://t.co/KkdZA8Biij">medicine</a>. And unless we are willing as consumers to do something other than what we've done before, we deserve it.<br />
<br />
<i>*BTW, if you're not listening to the <b>Free-For-All on Agritalk</b>, give it a try. Three right-wing, but thoughtful gentlemen and I discuss current events. To be fair, I participate with one hand tied behind my back. You can also listen via FarmRadio as a podcast.</i>John Phippshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03245790061133614986noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27951078.post-61600007912931908352015-07-04T15:17:00.003-06:002015-07-04T15:17:48.127-06:00<span style="font-size: large;"><b>Archival revival...</b></span><br />
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I am in the process of translocating all my articles from Farm Journal and Top Producer to new blogs/websites. It will take some time, but I'll be able to link to them like I used to when they were on a database service that has ended. The constant upgrading at Agweb has disabled their archives as well.<br />
<br />
You can find them here:<br />
<br />
<a href="http://johnsworldarchives.blogspot.com/">Farm Journal (John's World)</a><br />
<br />
<a href="http://tpperspectives.blogspot.com/">Top Producer</a><br />
<br />
I'm starting back at 1994 and working toward the present.<br />
<br />John Phippshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03245790061133614986noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27951078.post-43102731689606044712015-07-03T06:20:00.002-06:002015-07-03T06:20:33.448-06:00<b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">It's a start, anyway...</span></b><br />
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One of the buzzwords inserted liberally in everything from corporate sales pitches to farmer humblebrags is<b><span style="color: #38761d;"> "sustainability"</span></b>. But like <a href="http://johnwphipps.blogspot.com/2015/07/what-am-i-missing.html">"WOTUS"</a> we all think we know what it means, but try nailing it down.<br />
<br />
I stumbled on this definition by accident, and thought it useful:<br />
<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span class="s1" style="background-color: #d9ead3;"><i>According to Herman Daly, an early pioneer in the sustainability movement, sustainability means three things: 1) For renewable resources, the rate of harvest should not exceed the rate of regeneration; 2) for pollution, the rates of waste generation should not exceed the assimilation capacity of the environment (sustainable waste disposal) and 3) for nonrenewable resources, the depletion of the nonrenewable resources (that is, fossil fuels) should require comparable development of renewable substitutes for that resource. Achieving such sustainability will enable the Earth to continue to support life. Thus, teaching sustainability is common sense. It is our responsibility; it is not a “plot” to brainwash students. [<a href="http://www.startribune.com/counterpoint-sustainability-is-not-an-evil-plot/311320441/">More</a>]</i></span></blockquote>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1">While seemingly straightforward, the trick, of course is how to measure all of these rates. Still, I think it is helpful and offers a template to guide your own definition.</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"><br /></span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1">The interesting angle for me is the linkage to nutrient management. This pollution, and that label is inescapable, I think, is the result of exceeding the assimilation rate for the soil and water. The is a point beyond which our fields cannot hold more N and P, it seems.</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"><br /></span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1">Unfortunately, the default way to<b> measure sustainability is a weird kind of destructive testing</b> - keep increasing the load until something gives. We used to joke about testing bridges this way in <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statics">Statics </a>classes in college.</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"><br /></span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1">I don't know whether we'll be able to agree on better metrics for sustainability, but if we could get some slightly clearer benchmarks, much of the uproar over regulation would at least diminish. It becomes a problem to be solved, rather than a threat to be imagined.</span></div>
John Phippshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03245790061133614986noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27951078.post-36224302335928879862015-07-02T08:54:00.000-06:002015-07-02T08:54:05.181-06:00<b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">What am I missing?...</span></b><br />
<br />
OK, I am <b>obviously clueless about the impact of the CWA WOTUS ruling</b>. The ag community is apoplectic about its "overreaching" and "land grabbing". But time and again, when I ask <b><i>what does this mean</i></b> in how I farm...I get nothing.<br />
<br />
Incidentally, there seems to be a common script with <span style="color: #38761d;">required phrases</span> when expressing your outrage. Note these examples:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="background-color: #d9ead3;"><span class="s1"><i>Blake Hurst, President of the Missouri farm Bureau, publicly applauded Koster’s suit.</i></span><span class="s1"><i>“We applaud Attorney General Koster for filing this lawsuit against EPA and hope the courts will act quickly to halt implementation of the WOTUS rule as the issue works its way through the legal system. The EPA is guilty of a massive overreach, and we fully expect the courts will once again instruct the EPA to follow the intent of Congress.” [<a href="http://themissouritimes.com/19174/koster-sues-epa-over-new-waters-rule/">More</a>]</i></span></span></blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="background-color: #d9ead3;"><span class="s1"><i>Stenehjem, a Republican, said the rule usurps state authority over broad swaths of water, subjecting landowners to federal red tape, additional permit requirements and costly permit delays, and steep penalties and possible jail time for noncompliance.</i></span><span class="s1"><i>“This federal power grab is unnecessary and unlawful and will do nothing to increase water quality in our state,” he said. [<a href="http://www.jamestownsun.com/news/state/3776763-north-dakota-takes-lead-lawsuit-against-epa-over-wotus-rule">More</a>]</i></span></span></blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="background-color: #d9ead3;"><span class="s1"><i>The claim is that the rule would extend the EPA and Corps regulatory reach tremendously by allowing regulation under the Clean Water Act of areas where water is found only a few months out of year such as roadside ditches and field waterways as well as regulation of small bodies of water including farm ponds. The claim also is that any work by farmers that might alter water flow on their property in any manner might be subject to extensive paperwork for permitting.</i></span><span class="s1"><i>The EPA claims the rule was issued to bring clarity to the terminology and specifics of where the Clean Water Act pertains, including private property. But those state officials filing suit on behalf of their constituencies see the rule as a tremendous overreach of authority by the EPA. The rule has not gone into force yet, and the lawsuits are asking for it to be declared illegal and or an injunction against it ever going into effect in its current form. [<a href="http://www.agprofessional.com/news/least-three-multiple-state-lawsuits-against-wotus-rule">More</a>]</i></span></span></blockquote>
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<span class="s1">OK, the last account suggests that if I alter water flow on my farm I'll need to get a permit. That is one of the few specifics I have ever seen in the debate. I'll point out the EPA <a href="http://www2.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2015-05/documents/fact_sheet_agriculture_final.pdf">says that's not true</a>, but the common reply is "The EPA is lying. "</span></div>
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<span class="s1">What if, for the purposes of argument, I just stipulate all these dire predictions are true. <b>What does the WOTUS APOCALYPSE look like?</b> Is there a fear that the EPA will dictate how much we can spray and apply and when and how? How would that work? Who would enforce it?</span></div>
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The most frequent semi-answer is "we'll have to get permits". But as I understand it, that's true only if you are going to do something bad that could <b><i>end up in water that leaves your property</i></b>. </div>
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<span class="s1" style="background-color: #d9ead3;"><i>Agriculture groups raised important questions about what it means for waters to be “covered” under the Clean Water Act. The Act requires a permit if a protected water is <b>going to be polluted or destroyed</b>, however, agricultural activities like planting, harvesting, and moving livestock across a stream have long been excluded from permitting, and that won’t change under the rule. In other words, farmers and ranchers won’t need a permit for normal agricultural activities that happen in and around those waters. [<a href="http://www2.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2015-05/documents/fact_sheet_agriculture_final.pdf">Same</a>] <b>[My emphasis</b>]</i></span></blockquote>
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Lost in all the hand-wringing is the idea of clean water. That's the point we're missing. If you aren't polluting, you're not a target, it seems to me.</div>
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The idea of leaving it up to states to handle has its own problems. Budgets for one. And what do you do if the state upstream has more lax rules than your state? The idea of 50 little EPA's making 50 sets of rules doesn't seem like a good thing to me. Besides, if we're going to get paid to comply, which we will insist on and probably get, we'd better tap into the federal jugular, not say, <a href="http://www.kansascity.com/opinion/opn-columns-blogs/yael-t-abouhalkah/article25871074.html">the Kansas fiasco</a>.</div>
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The EPA budget is almost entirely consumed with responding to lawsuits. There is no enforcement legion to patrol the backroads and strip-search farmers planting corn. If we do have to have permits to spray everything because of ditches (remember, EPA lies) how would we get them? Can the EPA even begin to handle that admin load? I doubt it.</div>
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<b>So all farming comes to a halt while we stand in line for permits.</b> Since this is the case constantly being predicted by opponents, a strategy springs to mind:</div>
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</div>
<ol>
<li>Get long everything.</li>
<li>Don't sell anything from now until then.</li>
<li>Get good at getting permits. (Huge rewards to people who can handle bureaucracy, just like crop insurance or PIK certs)</li>
<li>Rent ground away from those guys in DC picketing. (Just kidding, of course, but if such a world is inevitable, bitter-enders will be subject to replacement by early collaborators)</li>
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<b>I exaggerate, of course</b>. A lot. But the Doomsday scenarios seem to be suggesting this. The question is why. I offer these guesses.</div>
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<b>First, we know this is about stuff we put in the water</b>: N, P, and pesticides are too high even following current rules and prudent practices. There is no "land being grabbed", there is something even worse: owner/operator responsibility for what leaves our farm in the water. I think one unspoken motive here is to make sure no blame can be tracked back to me. This may seem like a good defense, but doesn't that simply leave control measures that treats good actors and bad alike? Without further delineation, probably it will be done by waters that the EPA clearly does have jurisdiction over, like the Mississippi River, and hence the whole watershed. Imagine the ruling is overturned/negated somehow, and the EPA simply says to the states, "The water flowing out of your Miss. River boundary has too much X. Take measures to drop it 50% or the AG will call you."</div>
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<b>Second, I think there is an visceral fear that the EPA wants us all to be bucolic, organic small farmers.</b> OK, again let's <i>imagine</i> this is the real hidden agenda. How we get there? If they stipulate no chemicals, less fertilizer, etc. our grain production plummets. While I can't imagine this kind of economic disruption is even faintly possible, there is an uneasiness because we know much of the public really wants cute farmers growing food. It irritates us so much we spend mucho time and dollars educating them how mistaken they are. Still, we are constantly reminded the longing for agrarian production is persistent and widespread among consumers. Totally, overlooked, IMHO, is what is the EPA just wants the water to be cleaner - not pristine - just better. Why shoot for impossible domination when you really want less stuff in the water? These imaginings are politically-fed paranoid fantasies that have tapped into a deep resentment that folks don't love us like they did when we were all labor and 4-crop rotations.</div>
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<b>Third, deep, deep down, we know our current path is not good</b>. All corn all the time is great for suppliers and users, but probably not as sustainable as we thought a few years ago. In fact, it appears to me, only by <i>offloading our economic externalities downstream</i> can we force land to produce at the 300 bpa levels we think is our goal. Our outraged response to being called to responsibility for what we do to water leaving our land is maybe a way to take our mind off the truth that <b>we wouldn't want to be downstream of us either.</b></div>
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All of these scenarios are unsupported by any shred of feasibility or evidence. The agpocalyptic future being touted is laughably impracticable, politically unthinkable, and economically nonsensical. The worst/best the EPA might be able to do is begin to add some burden of accountability to the most egregious water pollution actions.</div>
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Most of the fears are slippery-slope arguments carried to ludicrous extremes as I have done. But those extremes are as far as I can see, counterproductive to the supposed EPA purpose (clean water, remember?). <b><span style="color: #38761d;">At any rate, these underlying anxieties need to be articulated, instead of simply ominously hinted. The fact they are not only reinforces my conviction ag simply will always and automatically oppose any EPA action, making up reasons to do so in the face of contradictory facts.</span></b></div>
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[Ethanol mandates excepted, of course]</div>
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<span class="s1">Like I said at the beginning, maybe there is a detailed explanation of how my life will change as a farmer because of the WOTUS rule. But all I can find are hints and innuendo, so I've tried to create some possibles to ponder. Let me know what you think the end result might be. <b>After all, SCOTUS could uphold it.</b></span></div>
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John Phippshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03245790061133614986noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27951078.post-86647541310552330022015-06-26T16:31:00.001-06:002015-06-26T16:31:43.987-06:00<b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">One input bright spot...</span></b><br />
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Propane is essentially a byproduct of oil and NG production.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="background-color: #d9ead3;"><i><span class="s1">Propane is produced as a <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/By-product"><span class="s2">by-product</span></a> of two other processes, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_gas_processing"><span class="s2">natural gas processing</span></a> and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_refinery"><span class="s2">petroleum refining</span></a>. The processing of natural gas involves removal of <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Butane"><span class="s2">butane</span></a>, propane, and large amounts of <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethane"><span class="s2">ethane</span></a> from the raw gas, in order to prevent condensation of these volatiles in natural gas pipelines. Additionally, oil refineries produce some propane as a by-product of <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cracking_(chemistry)"><span class="s2">cracking</span></a> petroleum into gasoline or heating oil. The supply of propane cannot easily be adjusted to meet increased demand, because of the by-product nature of propane production. About 90% of U.S. propane is domestically produced.</span><span class="s3"><sup>[</sup><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Citation_needed"><span class="s2"><sup>citation needed</sup></span></a><sup>]</sup></span><span class="s1"> The United States imports about 10% of the propane consumed each year, with about 70% of that coming from Canada via pipeline and rail. The remaining 30% of imported propane comes to the United States from other sources via ocean transport.</span></i><i><span class="s1">After it is produced, North American propane is stored in huge <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_gas_storage#Salt_formation"><span class="s2">salt caverns</span></a>. Examples of these are <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fort_Saskatchewan"><span class="s2">Fort Saskatchewan</span></a>, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alberta"><span class="s2">Alberta</span></a>; <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mont_Belvieu,_Texas"><span class="s2">Mont Belvieu, Texas</span></a> and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conway,_Kansas"><span class="s2">Conway, Kansas</span></a>. These salt caverns were hollowed out in the 1940s,<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Propane#cite_note-10"><span class="s4"><sup>[10]</sup></span></a> and they can store 80,000,000 barrels (13,000,000 m</span><span class="s3"><sup>3</sup></span><span class="s1">) or more of propane. When the propane is needed, much of it is shipped by pipelines to other areas of the United States. Propane is also shipped by truck, ship, barge, and railway to many U.S. areas. [<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Propane">More</a>]</span></i></span></blockquote>
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<span class="s1">I have anticipated prices to drop every since North Dakota became the Saudi Arabia of the US. But infrastructure to capture, clean, and store propane takes time to get going. Perversely, dropping prices makes that investment more unfavorable.</span></div>
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<span class="s1"><b><span style="color: #38761d;">And boy have prices dropped!</span></b></span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4-x48AI7DqlOCLM-dn7KXB2CGmB73WxMCyxFQ5BW_ex_BymEYSnHleIw2avQJU2RQMoiKUOcZ13yugKI4c63moW2P-fPXJ_CmExi9IbhyphenhyphenLOpeo2hNIYFMLosH_W_NGhHPOTuhPw/s1600/MI-CK269_PROPAN_11U_20150624181229.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4-x48AI7DqlOCLM-dn7KXB2CGmB73WxMCyxFQ5BW_ex_BymEYSnHleIw2avQJU2RQMoiKUOcZ13yugKI4c63moW2P-fPXJ_CmExi9IbhyphenhyphenLOpeo2hNIYFMLosH_W_NGhHPOTuhPw/s400/MI-CK269_PROPAN_11U_20150624181229.jpg" width="397" /></a></div>
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[Click to embiggen]</div>
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Benchmark propane prices in Mont Belvieu, Texas, fell to 32 cents a gallon June 8, the lowest level since February 2002, according to the Oil Price Information Service. Wednesday afternoon, prices were up 3.44 cents, or 9.5%, to 39.69 cents a gallon, according to the service. [<a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/propane-prices-feel-heat-of-supply-glut-1435186536">More</a> and source for chart]</div>
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Anyhoo, this is all well and good, and comforting to free marketeers, <i><b>but am I the only one to be a little taken back by a price of 32¢</b></i>?</div>
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Crimony, I don't think <b>beer</b> has this good of a markup. (No, a bartender friend told me beer was 99% profit) To be fair, I just had a summer fillup and including taxes, it was under $1.10. So no gripes from me.</div>
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I do wonder how guys installing massive tanks after the shortage in the winter of 2013 (?) when it flirted with $5/gal. feel about this. the payback just got waaaay longer. But the intial fill looks more manageable.</div>
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<b>And with the way this growing season is splashing along, we may need a bunch of drying.</b></div>
John Phippshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03245790061133614986noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27951078.post-54835555432290094032015-06-26T11:40:00.001-06:002015-06-26T11:40:13.058-06:00<b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">TransparenSeed 6/26 Report...</span></b><br />
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The <b><span style="color: #38761d;">first of what will hopefully be several ever-bigger reports on 2015 seed corn prices</span></b> was emailed to participants today. Some things I learned:<br />
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<ul>
<li>While I anticipated it would be tedious, the bizarre naming conventions are an invitation to typos and confusion. Lists are subject to revision/correction.</li>
<li>It is hard to get useful comparisons because of all the different trait packages. It reminds me of how manufacturers make slightly different models, with and without various features, to confound shopping 'bots and make price chopping harder. Just the way it is.</li>
<li>There are some clues as to patterns, but participants can analyze and reach their own conclusions.</li>
</ul>
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<b>Please consider joining us.</b> While the <a href="http://johnwphipps.blogspot.com/2015/06/the-transparenseed-project.html">initial idea</a> was to verify scrupulously authentic prices, I have decided this can be too difficult and unnecessary, until some hint of deception is encountered. <i>Plus those scanned documents can be a bear for me to read.</i></div>
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So just send in your seed corn prices for 2015 including:</div>
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<ol>
<li>Zip code or region [SWMN, e.g.]</li>
<li>Brand</li>
<li>Hybrid #</li>
<li>Traits</li>
<li>Bottom line price/unit after all discounts</li>
<li>Pay date (optional)</li>
<li>Seed treatment (optional, if not included #4)</li>
<li>Any notes that seem pertinent</li>
</ol>
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Your email will be protected.</div>
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Send to: <a href="mailto:transparenseed@gmail.com">transparenseed@gmail.com</a></div>
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You will receive updated reports by email as new data comes in. </div>
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FWIW, the info is changing my buying plans.</div>
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John Phippshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03245790061133614986noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27951078.post-8284980117874735822015-06-24T06:58:00.000-06:002015-06-24T06:58:57.474-06:00<b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">Big Sugar vs. Big Corn...</span></b><br />
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A <a href="http://www.agweb.com/blog/usfr-johns-world/freer-trade-/">few weeks ago on USFR I talked</a> about how our domestic sugar industry was vulnerable due the the fact it is a wholly political structure - absolutely dependent on subsidies/protectionism for its existence. Too many other places can grow cane sugar too cheaply. I tried not to attack or judge, just mention that as we inched toward freer trade, it was one of ag's most likely and biggest losers.<br />
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The sugar industry responded with predictable counterpoints on the show.<br />
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<ul>
<li>All the other kids are doing it. (This is unkind, but essentially describes the argument). Brazil and Mexico subsidize sugar growers, so we have to do the same.</li>
<li>Jobs, economic activity (Actually, like the Keystone pipeline, sugars job impact is a rounding error for one-months US job growth)</li>
<li>Frankly deceptive remarks about how US consumers really aren't paying more for sugar (only in comparison to select countries - not world average)</li>
</ul>
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There are <a href="http://www.sugaralliance.org/get-the-facts/foreign-subsidies/">more rationalizations</a> that have become gospel for the industry. But the fact that Big Sugar spends almost as much on lobbying as all other commodities combined should suggest they are a political construct - not a viable economic enterprise.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj6DGqZ886g1RFrCqLllz_LlUZNoWhKrUmr65bO7A-gkGrcMCBvhDcDBba1FVJ9fjhTxXL3ktox0T223ooUvu88t4ee6o6LCQG_7f8EaUKPsTJHSsqea_avOKj_4XMfvlOzN0_S7g/s1600/BG-sugar-prices-2014-chart-3.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj6DGqZ886g1RFrCqLllz_LlUZNoWhKrUmr65bO7A-gkGrcMCBvhDcDBba1FVJ9fjhTxXL3ktox0T223ooUvu88t4ee6o6LCQG_7f8EaUKPsTJHSsqea_avOKj_4XMfvlOzN0_S7g/s400/BG-sugar-prices-2014-chart-3.gif" width="296" /></a></div>
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[<a href="http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2014/06/us-trade-policy-gouges-american-sugar-consumers">Source</a>]</div>
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All that is beside the point, and was not my main issue. I was simply trying to say the tide of commerce seems to be flowing in the direction of freer trade - and <b><i>sugar is vulnerable, despite whether the sugar program is good or not.</i></b></div>
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Actually, I edited out my main point: <b><span style="color: #38761d;">If other countries subsidize sugar, isn't the sane economic policy to <i>let them </i>pay for our consumption?</span></b> If people are paying part of the tab, why should you spend more - in our case much more?</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiXSJ7t0Nr6WegpG2WuyoXx6oZvM4DehJ_YR4Ca3kXLV00DwHLW1Ti82P9sm9dRvvk7Ez7ftuH_R8mnEeYeXcvJnaUaYfC6UsaaJy9XuHrqy-g5b3AGq3cbx0kQH92XyMdtRYzyPA/s1600/MI-CG643_USSUGA_9U_20141207170915.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="346" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiXSJ7t0Nr6WegpG2WuyoXx6oZvM4DehJ_YR4Ca3kXLV00DwHLW1Ti82P9sm9dRvvk7Ez7ftuH_R8mnEeYeXcvJnaUaYfC6UsaaJy9XuHrqy-g5b3AGq3cbx0kQH92XyMdtRYzyPA/s400/MI-CG643_USSUGA_9U_20141207170915.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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[<a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-sugar-soars-above-world-prices-1417999637">Source</a>]</div>
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The stakes has risen. I'm not the main problem by far for Big Sugar. Look who's making the sugar program a 2016 campaign issue:</div>
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<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="background-color: #d9ead3;"><span class="s1"><i><b>Joint SCOOP with Tom Hamburger: </b>The Corn Refiners Association, representing companies that produce high-fructose corn syrup, has just hired 10 outside lobbyists as part of an unorthodox attack on sugar producers and the unusually generous federal support that they receive. Their first target is an agriculture appropriations bill now working its way through a House committee. “While every other farm support program has received multiple rounds of reforms, big sugar has not been touched,” said John Bode, CEO of the Corn Refiners group.</i></span><span class="s1"><i><b>Watch for sugar supports to become the next Big Thing that movement conservatives oppose, even if they supported them in the past: </b>Some on the right predict this issue will play out a lot like the reauthorization of the Export-Import Bank. The bank’s charter is likely to lapse, at least temporarily, next week after a sustained push by conservatives to cast it as a symbol of corporate welfare. The 2016 presidential contenders continue to seek out issues where they can get to the right of one another.</i></span><span class="s1"><i><b>“Defeating the sugar lobby is the next campaign after Ex-Im,” Grover Norquist, from Americans for Tax Reform, told The Daily 202 last night.</b> “Both are cronyism in its undiluted, inexcusable majesty. Both have survived because they perfected the skills to control Congress for their own profit. If they go down, no political subsidy will be safe. The implication of these wins is bigger than the ban on earmarks.”</i></span><span class="s1"><i><b>The Club for Growth’s Andrew Roth added that fighting the sugar subsidy “is high on the list” of priorities after Ex-Im</b>: “If there is more muscle going into anti-sugar subsidy efforts, we welcome it.”</i></span><span class="s1"><i><b>Heritage Action’s Dan Holler argues that the war on sugar is “a whole lot further along” than the push to kill Ex-Im was just a few years ago.</b> Indeed, a 2013 amendment to reduce sugar price supports and enact other reform failed by just 15 House votes. “Using the protectionism that exists around sugar to highlight the dreadful nature of America’s farm policy is very important to us,” he said. (The sugar lobby declined to comment.)</i></span><span class="s1"><i><b>The coming sugar war could become problematic for Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush</b>, Republican presidential candidates from Florida who have been supportive of sugar but already have at least one big strike against them in the eyes of activists (immigration). [<span class="s2"><a href="http://link.washingtonpost.com/54831c3d3b35d083098bb6402r49j.c539/VYqJAkmOwu6jmGzSAf4b8">More </a>]</span>.</i></span></span></blockquote>
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<span class="s1">As we all know, if your party name starts with R, you don't cross Norquist. Or the Koch's. Or FNN. Or...never mind. To put it mildly, outside of sugar-producing state legislators, these is not a lot of love for our policy in the political spectrum, and it's become A Cause <a href="http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2014/07/sugar-shakedown-how-politicians-conspire-with-the-sugar-lobby-to-defraud-americas-families">for the right.</a></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: #d9ead3;"><span class="s1"><i>Subsidies for sugar producers raise prices for consumers and cost taxpayers billions of dollars per year, but now a bipartisan effort is underway in the Senate to repeal them.</i></span><i><br /></i><i><span class="s2"><a href="http://www.nola.com/politics/index.ssf/2015/02/another_battle_between_sugar_p.html">The New Orleans Times-Picayune reported</a></span><span class="s1"> on Tuesday that, “seventeen U.S. senators have introduced legislation to repeal the U.S. sugar price support system, renewing a fight that was won previously by sugar producers.”</span></i><i><br /></i><span class="s1"><i>Although some believe that Republican majorities in Congress might be more receptive to repealing the subsidies, the Times-Picayune predicts that, “the sugar industry is still likely to prevail.” <a href="http://dailycaller.com/2012/06/25/sugar-lobby-sweetens-deal-for-house-republicans-protecting-subsidy/"><span class="s3"><b>(RELATED: Sugar Lobby Sweetens Deal for House Republicans Protecting Subsidy)</b></span></a></i></span><i><br /></i><span class="s1"><i>Nonetheless, Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, along with Republican Sens. Mark Kirk and Pat Toomey, reintroduced the <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/114th-congress/senate-bill/475/cosponsors?q=%7B%22search%22%3A%5B%22s+475%22%5D%7D"><span class="s3">Sugar Reform Act</span></a> last week, quickly attracting an additional nine Republican and five Democratic co-sponsors. [<a href="http://dailycaller.com/2015/02/17/candy-land-senators-call-for-repeal-of-sugar-subsidies/">More</a> - I'm not proud of excerpting the Daily Caller, but it's to make a point about the far right position]</i></span></span></blockquote>
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<span style="background-color: #d9ead3;">B</span>ut this has become an internecine battle as <span style="color: #38761d;">Big Corn takes off the gloves</span>. HFCS is certainly struggling, and sugar policy has always driven them nuts. While there has been a running battle over <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/wellness/high-fructose-corn-syrup-vs-sugar/2013/06/18/fdbedb90-c488-11e2-914f-a7aba60512a7_story.html">competing health claims</a>, it's sales of HFCS that is driving this war.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwmaxpjJlSTwZ4w7d9si1NFLlbvI5qur3vsFG8h6TzVgk6pS9Ez3H0c136QpF2psMrw28_X-0nuC9y3KKWzGYBFpghL73lUFJ9mLI0Xqugd9j3Rf1ewzp64z07D4MAPKr_r8kx8A/s1600/US_Sweetener_consumption%252C_1966_to_2013.svg.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwmaxpjJlSTwZ4w7d9si1NFLlbvI5qur3vsFG8h6TzVgk6pS9Ez3H0c136QpF2psMrw28_X-0nuC9y3KKWzGYBFpghL73lUFJ9mLI0Xqugd9j3Rf1ewzp64z07D4MAPKr_r8kx8A/s400/US_Sweetener_consumption%252C_1966_to_2013.svg.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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[<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High_fructose_corn_syrup">"US Sweetener consumption, 1966 to 2013" by Royote</a>]</div>
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The HFCS-free trend has been noticeable, but the results are <a href="http://www.foodnavigator-usa.com/Markets/HFCS-free-The-trend-stalled-by-consumer-indifference">not showing up </a>in use figures significantly so far. While declining in the last few years, it has simply followed the total sweetener use curve.</div>
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Note the top line above. With sweetener use in general declining, producers have one main option: increase market share, and while attacking the sugar program seems to be one way to do it, I'm not so sure.</div>
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Sugar can be grown darn cheap in tropical countries like Brazil, Caribbean nations, and Australia. Now add in the muscular dollar, and we could save billions by imposting our sugar. <b>[Important note: while Big Sugar loudly proclaims the program doesn't cost the taxpayer, it does <span style="color: #38761d;">cost the consumer</span>. Which makes it a very regressive policy - hitting low income people harder than rich]</b></div>
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My guess is that these factors will combine to put extraordinary pressure on the sugar industry:</div>
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<ul>
<li><a href="http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/may/25/bill-heffernan-us-beef-imports-trans-pacific-partnership">TPP will give Australia leverage</a>, and Big Beef may join Big Corn to scuttle Big Sugar. [OK -I think it's time to give "Big" a rest...]</li>
<li>Conservatives see this as a low cost, high impact winner that burnishes free enterprise credentials while costing only a few MN, ND votes.</li>
<li>Sugar consumption continues to decline for health reasons, and the HFCS/cane battle becomes to the death.</li>
<li>Budget pressures. Although the economic payback will actually come in the grocery, some ag budget "savings" could be fantasized long enough to save something else in the ag budget or pay for a tax cut for somebody.</li>
</ul>
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So to sum up. The US sugar program may be a good thing and crucial to good farmers who are allowed to grow beets (closed coops) or cane producers. It's not IMHO, but that is not the point. <b><span style="color: #38761d;">It's that macro trends are combining to erode the political base of an non-economic industry.</span></b></div>
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<b><span style="color: #38761d;">This will not be pretty.</span></b></div>
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John Phippshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03245790061133614986noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27951078.post-71088318786978141382015-06-19T05:57:00.000-06:002015-06-23T16:09:23.146-06:00<b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">TranparenSeed II (Improved)...</span></b><br />
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I obviously <b><span style="color: #38761d;">made it too hard</span></b> by trying to ensure privacy. Just email your info (location, brand, hybrid, traits, final cost/unit; and special notes) if you want. I will protect your info. I'll post results here.<br />
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<a href="http://johnwphipps.blogspot.com/2015/06/the-transparenseed-project.html">Please contribute - the results could help us all.</a><br />
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Thanks!John Phippshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03245790061133614986noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27951078.post-78391046038233913292015-06-18T16:50:00.002-06:002015-06-22T07:08:18.746-06:00<b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">SAIB: Set-Aside In Bag...</span></b><br />
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I have a close friend who also happens to be the best farmer I know. I leech him for information and more importantly, real-life results. God knows what he gets out of our relationship.<br />
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Anyhoo, we were talking about seed prices and something he said casually began to rattle around in the back of my head. "I planted a conventional hybrid this year as a test. My calculations how it could yield<b> 27 bushels less than a triple stack and be as profitable</b>."<br />
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Hmmm.<br />
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The reasons we all know: about half the seed price ($330 - 170). Have to use at least half-rate residual herbicide on RR corn now. Some of you may be adding insecticide in addition to Bt. Meanwhile we haven't seen a corn borer around here is a decade or two.<br />
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OK - there is the cost angle. <span style="color: #38761d;">Now ponder our marketing problem</span>. Even with modest production issues - <i>the window for which is slowly slipping away</i> - we could harvest an ample crop. Prices could be much more dismal and with old-time surpluses, very sluggish to rally. After all, we can only keep the '14 crop off the market for so long.<br />
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I am pretty bearish on new demand. The bloom is off ethanol, China, and meat. Thanks to our dang economy not tanking, the dollar just won't wilt. And ethanol was <a href="http://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2015/05/some-key-trends-in-the-world-corn-market.html">THE source of new demand</a> for $7 corn. That's a whole 'nother post, but I find it hard to build a credible rising demand case to match our output increases.<br />
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If we head north of a 2B bu. carryover, subsidized crop insurance and a decreasing ARC payment will not satisfy many producers who believe in political solutions to economic problems. Murmurings of production controls, i.e. set asides, or other pay-me-not-to-plant schemes will be thrown out as solutions to the ag crisis. <b><i>But maybe there is a method at hand to tackle this using simple Adam Smith economic tools.</i></b><br />
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I call it Set-Aside-In-Bag. Basically let's all take a page from my friend and arbitrage the price distortion between trait costs and benefits. <b><span style="color: #38761d;">Plant conventional corn, and make the same money with lower yields by saving on costs.</span></b> In the process, <b>we lower US production</b>.<br />
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Price erosion has two effects in this scenario.<br />
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<ol>
<li>It expands the yield differential breakeven between conventional and traited seed.</li>
<li>It collapses margins.</li>
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Now suppose, in response, more farmers do like my friend. Yeah - I know there isn't nearly enough conventional seed now to plant major portion of the crop, but even at say 10% there would be some effect on the overall yield, reducing US production and possibly nudging prices up. Besides, after a year of selling out conventional numbers, some companies will break ranks and decide they can make good money without licensing their profit to Monsanto, et. al. Seed companies recognize the need for lower seed production costs in the era of $3-something corn. New genetics could pour into conventional numbers as well as traited.</div>
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I know, lots of things could go differently than I am describing. Let's look at some.</div>
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A. Seed companies lower traited seed prices to reduce the cost penalty. OK - that's not a bad thing. In fact, it's what were are griping about.</div>
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B. The yield differential turns out to be less or even non-existent due to the uselessness of defense traits in the absence of weed/insect pressure. US production doesn't decrease much, keeping prices low. With much lower costs, this is a clear win for SAIB</div>
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C. Prices jump up with lower production. Traited corn would still have to overcome a now much clearer cost/benefit threshold. If the economics reverse, and we can afford what seed companies think traits are worth, that's exactly what producers are wishing for now. I think the introduction of a choice would radically lower pricing power for seed companies after conventional competition. Advantage: SAIB.</div>
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<b>The Bottom Line: Lower costs never seem to hurt</b>.</div>
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Meanwhile, the decrease in BT and RR traits might prolong the the usefulness of those for another decade as a wider variety of protection methods are used. Resistance would likely slow. The growing confluence of green-snap susceptibility (which seems to be more problematic in new traited hybrids, IMHO) and more violent storms via climate change would be alleviated with sturdier genetics and lower populations.</div>
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I admit, I have strung together a daisy-chain of what-if ideas. None are terrible unrealistic, and they can link up in different ways with pretty much similar conclusions. At any rate, I've learned that my friend does something like this, its good to pay attention.</div>
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<br />John Phippshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03245790061133614986noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27951078.post-73773451507708943172015-06-17T07:26:00.003-06:002015-06-17T07:26:55.088-06:00<b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">A few details might help...</span></b><br />
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FJ's Paul Neiffer has <a href="http://www.agweb.com/article/paul-neiffer-cut-these-3-costs-NAA-nate-birt/">an obligatory </a><a href="http://www.agweb.com/article/paul-neiffer-cut-these-3-costs-NAA-nate-birt/">interview</a> on what expenses to cut to make your budget work. It is wonderfully vague. He suggests:<br />
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<ol>
<li>Living expenses</li>
<li>Farmland and machinery</li>
<li>Inputs</li>
</ol>
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I have to say, this column does not break much new ground. <b><i>I mean, have none of us thought about those categories that make up ~90% of our budget?</i></b> But rather than just criticize, here's where I would aim the axe. And I am.</div>
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<ol>
<li>Professional services: Cripes, most of us have ag and business degrees. Software has made everything from accounting to analysis learnable with reasonable effort. Stop paying for people to do stuff you can do yourself.</li>
<ul>
<li>Accounting. Learn QuickBooks. You might actually begin to understand more intuitively how you earn a living. It is liberating to not ask someone what to do with every dollar. To those who claim that accountants earn save more than they cost, then pay them on commission rather than per hour. If you are worried about doing your taxes, try TurboTax and remember all the IRS asks is that you don't lie - not that you are exactly right. Besides IRS budget cuts means your odds of an audit are vanishingly small. Be honest, you'll be OK. It is not rocket surgery.</li>
<li>Crop consultants: get off your backside and look at your own fields. Besides the threshold points for spraying something expensive get pretty high when corn is $3. Your fields won't wither if you skip grid sampling for 4 years. You'll be surprised how much advice you've been getting to spend more money was simply to justify advisor fees.</li>
<li>Market advisors: the rule about passive marketing that is <a href="http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2014/08/22/the-decline-and-fall-of-fund-managers/">slowly emptying Wall Street</a> also applies to commodities. The average is not to be despised. Sell 1/12 every 12th of the month (or a date of your own choosing). Seriously.</li>
</ul>
<li>P and K: Keep the pH right and draw down some of the over-application you've done the last few years. You know how hard it is to raise the K test on a field. It also goes down as slowly. The only way fertilizer will get a market signal is if we say no. The handwringers at the university cannot talk rationally about this due to strong conflicts of interest and blame avoidance. But they are on tenure - you are not.</li>
<li>Refinance: you may have missed the absolute bottom, but if you can roll long and mid-term debt into one mortgage with longer amortization, you may buy time and working capital. We are still near record low rates. </li>
<li>Additives: from seed coatings to fungicides - leave out everything except what you absolutely know you need: grass and broadleaf control. Remember the rule of "extras": if they really work, they are guaranteed. Apply at pesticides at 75-80% label rates. Yeah - I know you CAN'T do that and get the chem rep to give you a check, but it makes real money. Oddly, it is probably better for the environment as well. We may have a short window in rootworm and certainly corn borer before they make a comeback. Check for silk-clipping to plan next year's insecticide. Use residuals on corn, with as-needed glyphosate. Get the resistant broadleaves in corn - you can't leave them for soy.</li>
<li>Seed: go conventional corn. Drop 3-4K/A seed rates - the curve is really flat at 36,000. Try half-rate rootworm insecticide on some. Tune your planter, plant more carefully and cut soy seed rates. Shop harder and know how much yield every trait needs to earn to pay for itself. Make offers for seed, instead of asking prices. Share price info with friends.</li>
<li>Labor: for cash grain farms, you may be paying for year-round labor when you need 12 weeks. I realize you'll have to mow your own roads and your machinery won't be washed as often, but permanent help is rapidly becoming a luxury. I appreciate loyalty to employees, but you have to put a real dollar value on that emotion. Besides, I think there may be a sudden rise in the number of just-retired neighbors looking for SS supplements.</li>
<li>Machinery: this is obvious, but hard to do anything about. Adjust your "maximum-hours" threshold - 3000 hours on a well-kept tractor is not what it was 20 years ago. However, if you need to lighten up, <b><span style="color: #38761d;">get that stuff sold tomorrow</span></b>. Remember, if you cut back on labor, you may not need as many tractors.</li>
<li>Rents: here is the curious thing. While most will fixate on $50/A from a landowner, this may be wiser to recoup elsewhere. And always remember, if your competitors expect to solve their cashflow problem via rents instead of slimming down their own expenses, opportunities arise. It happened in the '80s. Make this the penultimate target. Fight the farm-size fixation by making sure all fields pay their way. Nobody likes to give up ground, but if you do, don't burn bridges. If you don't think this slump will last long, find a way to cut elsewhere to hang on to ground, but make that decision out loud to make it real.</li>
<li>Family living: accountants jump on this first, but it has gradually become a much smaller percentage of overall expenses. Making your family miserable for $5000/year when you could just stop the fungicide could yield a better life result. Do NOT cancel a modest vacation unless you have exhausted the above remedies. You will need your brain and family team at full ability, and downtime is a necessary ingredient. Living expenses are not money wasted in most cases.</li>
</ol>
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<b>We have confused doing what we are told with doing what really helps.</b> The first step to managing this profit squeeze will be to reassert some of the<b><span style="color: #38761d;"> self-reliance</span></b> that worked in previous downturns. Things will not be perfect. <b><i>But perfect is something we can't afford anymore.</i></b></div>
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Our ship could soon be <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=u06mgHhocDIC&pg=PT33&lpg=PT33&dq=in+extremis+meaning+nautical&source=bl&ots=uSNjyhJxkk&sig=6-BHnMDHLdOSP69whXmcSqd7PHE&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0CFMQ6AEwCGoVChMI6cCth_GSxgIVDhiSCh0rVwUV#v=onepage&q=in%20extremis%20meaning%20nautical&f=false">in extremis</a>, I suggest. The usual recipes for changes may not be enough. Breaking old habits and patterns can mean the difference in outcomes. Keep in mind that any outside help, like handouts from the government, should be bonuses, not lifesavers.</div>
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There are solid reasons to strongly disagree with these recommendations on one point of another. But the need to generate your own should be obvious to all but the wealthiest producers.</div>
John Phippshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03245790061133614986noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27951078.post-65442240063681911622015-06-15T10:49:00.000-06:002015-06-15T10:49:13.823-06:00<b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">The TransparenSeed Project...</span></b>
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Like many of you, we are engaged in an all-out effort to get our costs down to survive <$3 corn. Hope your efforts are going better than ours, BTW.<br />
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A few weeks ago, a brief Twitter exchange tipped us off to one area where we might find some savings: seed. Reportedly, it seems like Aaron and I now hold a record for paying the most for seed corn. In fact, we <i><b>may</b></i> have paid ~ $80 more for the same hybrid compared to producers 100 miles away.<br />
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<b><i><span style="color: #38761d;">Very important: this is not the fault of the seed company. It is our fault.</span></i></b> Recall the maxim of American capitalism: "<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada_Bill_Jones">It is immoral to allow a sucker to keep his money."</a><br />
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We are anxious not to repeat this feat in 2016, so what can we do?<br />
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I think the answer is the tried and true efficiency-booster for any market - transparency and more symmetrical information. Seed companies have amassed significant data on my buying habits and what I will pay. They are employing sophisticated market quantitative analysis as well. They also know what competitors are doing. We have nothing besides vague verbal comments among acquaintances to verify our analysis.<br />
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I have pondered long and hard on this one and do not see why seed prices need to be cloaked in conspiratorial pricing. After all, other inputs can at least be roughly comparison-shopped.<br />
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<li>DTN offers <i>(paywall)</i> <a href="http://www.dtnprogressivefarmer.com/dtnag/common/link.do?symbolicName=/free/news/template2&forceNavUpdate=false&topic=DTN/Ag/Fertilizers&vendorReference=a3ac979d-5a02-4fcb-b295-377c566dbad7">current and historical fertilizer price info</a>. Also interest rates.</li>
<li><a href="http://www.machinerypeteprices.com/">Machinery Pete </a>(and copycats) have been organizing machinery prices; plus there are lots of online shopping sites.</li>
<li>A thin but still modestly <a href="http://www.farmtrade.com/chem/buyers.asp">useful pesticide market exists</a> - and probably will expand in coming months.</li>
<li>Cash rents, which still hard to pin down for accuracy since they are are self-reported, are at least developing<a href="https://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/wholefarm/html/c2-10.html"> the beginning of a price-reporting regime</a>.</li>
</ul>
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Why don't we share what we pay for seed? My conjectures include 1) we never have, 2) we think <b><i>we</i></b> are getting the good deal, and 3) we have somehow been led to the belief it just isn't done by upstanding farmers 4) ???. It is also not unthinkable that seed company ad dollars have made this a no-go area for ag media. Maybe seed pricing is too explosive to touch.</div>
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I honestly don't know. <b><i><span style="color: #38761d;">But I think it would be fun to find out.</span></i></b></div>
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The Internet has broken open lots of formerly dark markets simply because it's hard to stop a sole actor with sufficient bandwidth. So I hereby announce:</div>
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<div style="text-align: center;">
<b><span style="font-size: large;">The TransparenSeed© Project</span></b></div>
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Goal: I will collect <b><i>and disperse to participants</i></b> actual, final seed prices paid by producers in a form searchable by area and hybrid. THIS WILL BE DONE IN A MANNER THAT PRESERVES ANONYMITY TO THE PARTICIPANTS <i>(as much as I know how, but I'm sure the NSA will know you got taken on your triple-stack)</i>. My hope is to break your hearts first by publishing real prices for 2015 and then this fall have the system worked out so that 2016 pricing quotes can be published in time for it to actually be of some use. Every step will be done openly and I will work to assure the numbers are legitimate.</div>
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Here is how it will work (subject to revision as we learn stuff, of course).</div>
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<ol>
<li>Price information will be accepted from <b>actual invoices</b> redacted to exclude names, addresses (except zip code - see below), exact volumes and final prices (more below) to protect against retaliation or embarrassment (which may be a paranoid fantasy of mine, I'll agree).</li>
<li>Zip codes will be translated into regional abbreviations like Machinery Pete uses: NWIA; ECIL; SWIN; etc. </li>
<li>Prices will include quoted list price and final, actual producer cost after discounts, but will be rounded slightly to aid anonymity. Volumes will be treated likewise so valid comparisons can be made.</li>
<li>The list will include company, hybrid number and traits.</li>
<li>The results will be available both as a PDF file and Excel and <b>distributed only to those who send in their info</b>. I am aware this could leak to the Intertubes, but that will only happen if it amounts to something due to good participation. I won't do it, but participants may. I hope they don't but who are we kidding?</li>
<li>Every effort will be made to make sure users compare hybrid XXXX RR/Bt/RW with XXXX RR/Bt/RW and not the same number with XXXX RR2/AQ or something. It will make the database a little clunkier, and no promises on my organizing skills. Ditto with payment date and volume discounts.</li>
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<b>HOW TO PLAY:</b></div>
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<ol>
<li>If you want, create a new email account on Gmail or whatever with a random address like qwerty&#@gmail.com Use the privacy settings to control what name is shown (or not) with the username. I will not be selling or using your email for any purpose other than the TransparenSeed reports. But these days I understand your reluctance to cough up your info, so you can take this optional step to set up a protective account.</li>
<li>Make a copy of your actual, final invoice that clearly shows how much you paid for a bag of XXX seed after all discounts. Explanatory notes in the margin are welcome.</li>
<li>Redact (hide) all identifying information such as name, account number, dealer info,etc. leaving only zip code, hybrid and trait identification, list and final prices. This can be done two ways:</li>
<ol>
<li>Take a black marker and color out the private info. (This why is why you need to make a copy first - you may need the original for the IRS)</li>
<li>Scan the document into a PDF file and <a href="http://www.wired.com/images_blogs/threatlevel/2009/12/redaction.pdf">redact more professionally</a> if you want.</li>
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<li>You can skip the redacting if you believe me that I will protect your info. No offense taken if you don't, but I would be crazy to destroy the trust needed to capture enough info to make this work.</li>
<li>Scan the document into a PDF - most inkjets will do this - it's not hard.</li>
<li>If you don't have a scanner or don't use it, try a photo with your phone. You can email it directly, but try the horizontal orientation first to maximize print size. I tried this and it seems to work, although I felt like James Bond in a Soviet lab.</li>
<li>Email the PDF/jpeg/whatever document to: <b><span style="color: #274e13;"><a href="mailto:transparenseed@gmail.com">transparenseed@gmail.com</a></span></b></li>
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I will not use emailed text "I only paid $XX for triple stack" reports. It's not I don't believe you, but that just doesn't work in today's environment. Anonymity does weird things to ethics. </div>
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<b>For the record, this is my idea alone, nobody else it to blame, and I'm not going to make any money on it. In fact, there is a faint chance it could become another time-suck like...this blog and tweeting.</b></div>
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I hope to publish timely updates <b><i>to those who send in their info</i></b>.<b><span style="color: #274e13;"> </span><span style="color: #38761d;">In short, it's "pay to play"</span></b>. These reports will be sent to the email from which the info was received, so be sure to add your new account (if you added one) to your mail client.</div>
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<b>This whole idea may go down in flames.</b> There may be nothing there to find other than seed is eerily and uniformly expensive. <span style="color: #38761d;">One big issue is deep discounts to very large operators may understandably buy their silence.</span> Fair enough - don't blame them. This has been my issue with FBFM-type data: under-representation of large farms. But even BTO's can't be sure what other BTO's are getting. </div>
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And I could be talking to myself here. I'll report that as well. There may be tantalizing teases on Twitter (follow <b>@jwphipps</b>) and here on <b><i>Incoming</i></b>, but I will not make results generally available except to participants.</div>
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Final note: I may be overlooking some really, really important detail about security or accuracy or efficiency that is obvious to you. Add it to the comments and we can make this a kind of Wiki-Seed effort. </div>
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John Phippshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03245790061133614986noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27951078.post-61722328627095701982015-05-21T15:13:00.000-06:002015-05-21T15:48:33.001-06:00<b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">Thinking unthinkable thoughts...</span></b><br />
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Don't ask me why, but I have been struck by two seemingly disparate events the last few days that led to a minor epiphany, or major wild-ass guess - take your pick.<br />
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First the <b>DuPont boardroom skirmish</b>.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="background-color: #d9ead3;"><span class="s1"><i>It turns out that activist investor Nelson Peltz came very close to being elected to DuPont's board of directors, according to vote totals released Wednesday.</i></span><span class="s1"><i>Peltz, principal at Trian Fund Management, launched a proxy war to gain four seats on DuPont's board. He conceded defeat last week at the company's annual shareholder meeting after DuPont shareholders elected all 12 of the company's nominees.</i></span><span class="s1"><i>The preliminary vote totals, disclosed in a Securities and Exchange Commission filing, reveal that Peltz received 293 million votes, just 77 million votes behind DuPont Director Robert Brown, who had the fewest number of votes among the company's nominees. Brown, president of Boston University, received 370 million votes.</i></span><span class="s1"><i>Peltz got 43 percent of the 681 million total votes cast. Although 77 million may appear to be a large gap, DuPont's three largest shareholders own between 25 million and 50 million shares of company stock.</i></span><i>Just one of those shareholders could have made a difference, but it is unknown how the company's biggest stock owners voted. Typically, large pension funds that vote in multiple proxy fights disclose their votes in all of them in one report released in August. [<a href="http://www.delawareonline.com/story/money/business/2015/05/20/peltz-falls-votes-short-dupont-board/27641099/">More</a>]</i></span></blockquote>
This was interesting in and of itself, but the case Peltz made was supported buy <a href="http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/30554/000093041315000692/c80358_ex-1.htm">an SEC filing</a> which included this slide <i>(apparently all business is now done in PowerPoint)</i>:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiBl9v1RnR3Zkx5mgs5CEqVrLkavE5C8mQGKl3BLi9NjVgs2w0d_EhibxFftUtPDrRGiIuHbakfW5-svlSPOM8S_phXOP43HIF4SA3TB3qQ9qtLTJZwgEMcg9upmA5TUANnyyTjCA/s1600/Screen+Shot+2015-05-21+at+8.25.07+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="303" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiBl9v1RnR3Zkx5mgs5CEqVrLkavE5C8mQGKl3BLi9NjVgs2w0d_EhibxFftUtPDrRGiIuHbakfW5-svlSPOM8S_phXOP43HIF4SA3TB3qQ9qtLTJZwgEMcg9upmA5TUANnyyTjCA/s400/Screen+Shot+2015-05-21+at+8.25.07+AM.png" width="400" /></a></div>
[Please do click to enlarge]<br />
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But...but...the PIPELINE! We have been promised all kinds of wonderproducts emerging assembly-line-like that will make yields soar and demolish problems like weeds, fertility, rain, and baldness. <b><i>And here's this guy who owns 20-odd million shares of DuPont suggesting there's nothing there.</i></b><br />
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So, looking at this from the DuPont POV is unsettling. You have:<br />
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<ol>
<li>an activist shareholder who could conceivably oust/hassle management if performance doesn't improve (came fairly close this time)</li>
<li>not much new coming in ag to dazzle customers, who can barely afford your old products</li>
<li>a meh-economy that isn't showing great results for the non-ag portion of your corporation</li>
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It seems to this uninformed layman that DuPont has almost no room to lower seed prices. Corn prices sure seem to indicate no expansion in acres, so a bigger market is not in the cards. They have $5B in sunk costs (research) to recover and they sure as heck aren't going to get it from shareholders. It comes down to how much blood is in the farmer turnip.</div>
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Bottom line: even if they wanted to, DuPont would struggle to compete on price. But that may not hurt them that much. Because of the same licensing fees listed above, other seed companies likely don't have much margin to cut either. At the very least seed corn has a floor price for stacked varieties and that floor could be over most farmers' heads with <$3 corn.</div>
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Now add in this <b>ongoing struggle with fellow giant Monsanto</b>.</div>
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<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="background-color: #d9ead3;"><span class="s1"><i>So what does Monsanto do? Instead of hiving off Roundup and becoming a non-pesticides seed company, it does the precise opposite. In <a href="http://www.wallstreetdaily.com/2015/05/19/monsanto-takeover-syngenta/"><span class="s2">seeking to take over Syngenta</span></a>, it looks to double down in agro-chemicals, including many more forms of pesticide and insecticide in Syngenta’s current portfolio, most of them far more toxic than glyphosate.</i></span><span class="s1"><i>Indeed, <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/scotts-miracle-gro-extends-deal-to-sell-monsantos-roundup-1432123867"><span class="s2">according to the Wall Street Journal</span></a>, Monsanto has pledged to regulators that it would sell off Syngenta’s seeds division, keeping the chemicals instead. It combines this with the <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/05/15/monsanto-syngenta-ag-backlash-idUSL1N0Y611D20150515"><span class="s2">usual arrogant corporate PR campaign</span></a> with soft-focus imagery and warm words – all the sort of stuff that just puts thinking peoples’ backs up. [<a href="http://www.marklynas.org/2015/05/monsanto-makes-the-wrong-choice-again/">More</a>]</i></span></span></blockquote>
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<span class="s1">I have my doubts that Monsanto is overlooking the above author's point. In fact, this move signals to me their pipeline that looks much like DuPont's. Monsanto could be getting back into the pesticide business because they too have seen the RR/Bt Profit Cliff.</span></div>
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<span class="s1"><br /></span></div>
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<b><span style="color: #38761d;">My complaint about GM seed has not been about safety - it's been cost.</span></b> Stacked corn has very high fixed costs for seed companies, which translates into very high variable costs for farmers. Seed companies have no downside flexibility as their customers lose income. While the consumer resistance doesn't help, mostly I think it's a side show used by seed companies to distract farmers from the economic problem. If GM protests went away tomorrow, a 2B bushel carryover would still be squashing prices. More than anything, this reminds me of Detroit making cars of declining quality and affordability just before Toyota and Honda showed devoured chunks of market share. </div>
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There may not be much of market for $400 seed corn, even if that is what it costs to produce. Maybe it's down to guessing how long low prices can last, but that seems unlikely for companies this sophisticated. Monsanto looks like it is hedging bets on what they can get for seed by getting back into pesticides. DuPont...they look to be in a much tougher position.</div>
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While it's possible trait fees between companies could plummet, I'm not sure how long the licensing agreements last (and am too lazy to do the homework). Should stacked hybrids stop selling, I have to believe those fees would be under intense pressure.</div>
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<b>Input suppliers seem to be convinced other input suppliers will break first</b>. But they are all competing for a rapidly shrinking income-per-acre. While normally this would mean farmer and landowner returns would bear the brunt, there is an <a href="http://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2015/05/negative-returns-and-downward-pressure.html">approaching limit there too</a>. Lenders probably won't fund negative cash-flows for long, and there are not many economies of scale left to exploit for massive consolidation.</div>
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It is the lack of apparent options that may be deceiving suppliers. Farmers will grow corn no matter what, they may think. To a degree they are right - what else can we do? But gambling with the possibility of a meltdown in farm economics, or betting on government intervention like the extra AMTA payment of the eighties (very unlikely with this Congress, IMHO) seems to be the directions we are heading. </div>
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After watching financial sector collapse in 2008, I am no longer so sure such apocalyptic outcomes are unthinkable. Looking at the seed industry, I'd say one piece of tinder is in place for a wildfire.</div>
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John Phippshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03245790061133614986noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27951078.post-11007791561658521072015-04-06T06:48:00.003-06:002015-04-06T06:48:32.519-06:00<b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">The savings glut hypothesis...</span></b><br />
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Is gaining some momentum. Very slowly, the idea of low returns to capital for a loooong time is becoming not just less unthinkable but more inevitable.<br />
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<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span class="s1" style="background-color: #d9ead3;"><i>Third, we may be headed into a world where capital is abundant and deflationary pressures are substantial. Demand could be in short supply for some time. In no big industrialised country do markets expect real interest rates to be much above zero in 2020 or inflation targets to be achieved. In the future, the priority must be promoting investment, not imposing austerity. The present system places the onus of adjustment on “borrowing” countries. The world now requires a symmetric system, with pressure also placed on “surplus” countries. [<a href="http://larrysummers.com/2015/04/05/time-us-leadership-woke-up-to-new-economic-era/">More</a>]</i></span></blockquote>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1">I'm still working through what this means for farmers. Could Aaron spend his career believing that borrowing at 4% is to be expected? Will any project that can earn a 5% ROI be worth looking at?</span></div>
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<span class="s1">
</span></div>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span class="s1" style="background-color: #d9ead3;"><i>For example, at a negative (or even zero) interest rate, it would pay to level the Rocky Mountains to save even the small amount of fuel expended by trains and cars that currently must climb steep grades. [<a href="http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/ben-bernanke/posts/2015/03/31-why-interest-rates-low-secular-stagnation">More</a>]</i></span></blockquote>
It is looking to me more likely that this is indeed the future. Working through what this means for investing and saving, especially for retirement is not encouraging for many. If the best you can hope for is 3-4% return, <b>the mountain of wealth needed to retire becomes immense</b>.<br />
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Which, of course, tends to increase the savings glut, postpone consumption and - yep, you guessed it - <b><i>reduce interest rates</i></b>.John Phippshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03245790061133614986noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27951078.post-73821164067629146622015-04-01T06:07:00.003-06:002015-04-01T06:07:44.848-06:00<b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">Tough turning back...</span></b><br />
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Just as guys are trying to plant more non-GMO seed due to resistance, cost, or whatever, <a href="http://www.extension.umn.edu/garden/master-gardener/volunteers/teaching-tools/docs/minimizing_gmo_contamination.pdf">producing seed pure enough</a> for non-GMO standards is getting nearly impossible. I've talked about<a href="http://geneticliteracyproject.org/2015/02/zero-tolerance-policies-on-gmo-contamination-hurt-organic-and-conventional-farmers-alike/"> the problem </a>of growing <a href="http://www.naturalproductsinsider.com/news/2014/11/ingredion-debuts-non-gmo-ingredient-video.aspx">non-GMO specialty corn</a>.<br />
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I think the standard for seed is 0.1%; my standard for non-GMO is 1% and it can be really problematic, even with big (200+ A) fields.<br />
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This is pure hearsay - and I can't even remember who said it, but the rumor is is takes huge fields of beans to bury non-GMO seed corn production in to meet the purity test.<br />
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If you have any better info please comment or give me a tweet. [<a href="https://twitter.com/jwphipps">@jwphipps</a>]<br />
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<br />John Phippshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03245790061133614986noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27951078.post-23861343951730463492015-02-04T07:08:00.001-06:002015-02-04T07:08:21.610-06:00<b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">The few are enough...</span></b><br />
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As most of you know, I do not and have not participated in phone surveys of any sort for a decade or more. I have always suspected that I was not alone - and I'm not. But counter-intuitively, declining <b><span style="color: #38761d;">participation rates do not appear to be affecting results as much as I thought.</span></b><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="background-color: #d9ead3;"><span class="s1"><i>This is not to say that declining response rates are without consequence. One significant area of potential non-response bias identified in the study is that survey participants tend to be significantly more engaged in civic activity than those who do not participate, confirming what previous research has shown.<a href="http://www.people-press.org/2012/05/15/assessing-the-representativeness-of-public-opinion-surveys/#fn-20041070-2"><span class="s2">2</span></a> People who volunteer are more likely to agree to take part in surveys than those who do not do these things. This has serious implications for a survey’s ability to accurately gauge behaviors related to volunteerism and civic activity. For example, telephone surveys may overestimate such behaviors as church attendance, contacting elected officials, or attending campaign events.</i></span><span class="s1"><i>However, the study finds that the tendency to volunteer is not strongly related to political preferences, including partisanship, ideology and views on a variety of issues. Republicans and conservatives are somewhat more likely than Democrats and liberals to say they volunteer, but this difference is not large enough to cause them to be substantially over-represented in telephone surveys. [<a href="http://www.people-press.org/2012/05/15/assessing-the-representativeness-of-public-opinion-surveys/#comparisons-of-standard-and-high-effort-surveys">More</a>]</i></span></span></blockquote>
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<span class="s1">This unexpected (for me) result does confirm my belief that farmers - well, a lot more in all professions - need to make <b>statistics and probability courses a higher priority</b> when in college. Of course, that daisy-chains back to taking calculus, I would guess, which has been a big hurdle for freshmen of all flavors.</span></div>
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<span class="s1"><br /></span></div>
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<span class="s1">But just notice how many of the debates within and without agriculture are based on public surveys or estimates of probable outcomes. Unless we have better tools to comprehend and utilize such information, we will be limited for the most part to trial-and-error. That doesn't strike me as competitive in a word where quants deploy algorithms to outfox our instincts in the marketplace. </span></div>
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John Phippshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03245790061133614986noreply@blogger.com0