Thursday, October 23, 2008

On second thought, cry for yourself...

Argentina is in a world of hurt economically. After surviving a crippling strike by farmers over export taxes, it now faces default on government debt.  In other words, they are going "Iceland".
That's right, Argentina. Ever the best at trading short-term gain for long-term pain, Argentina is now planning to nationalise private pension funds to help plug a budget gap that could lead to default. There are certain...side effects, however:
The yield on the government's 8.28 percent bonds due in 2033 surged 3.2 percentage points to 27.91 percent at 10:10 a.m. in New York, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. The bonds yielded 12.16 percent a month ago. The price dropped 4.11 cents to 25 cents on the dollar, leaving it down 11.91 cents in the past two days. The benchmark Merval stock index plunged 7.2 percent, extending its decline this week to 20 percent. 
Felix Salmon writes:
The fear is that they will be forced to dump all their long-term holdings and buy sovereign debt instead: Argentina might need to borrow as much as $14 billion next year, and there's no one willing to lend it that kind of money.
It's a damned-if-you-do, damned-if-you-don't scenario, but faced with such a scenario it seems senseless to take desperate measures that undermine confidence at home and abroad. Now, after a brief shining period when high commodity prices and rapid growth in government spending pushed economic expansion forward at an 8% annual rate, Argentina once again finds itself facing a downward spiral, after which it will try once more to rebuild its tattered economy.
That's right, Argentina. Ever the best at trading short-term gain for long-term pain, Argentina is now planning to nationalise private pension funds to help plug a budget gap that could lead to default. There are certain...side effects, however:
The yield on the government's 8.28 percent bonds due in 2033 surged 3.2 percentage points to 27.91 percent at 10:10 a.m. in New York, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. The bonds yielded 12.16 percent a month ago. The price dropped 4.11 cents to 25 cents on the dollar, leaving it down 11.91 cents in the past two days. The benchmark Merval stock index plunged 7.2 percent, extending its decline this week to 20 percent. 
Felix Salmon writes:
The fear is that they will be forced to dump all their long-term holdings and buy sovereign debt instead: Argentina might need to borrow as much as $14 billion next year, and there's no one willing to lend it that kind of money.
It's a damned-if-you-do, damned-if-you-don't scenario, but faced with such a scenario it seems senseless to take desperate measures that undermine confidence at home and abroad. Now, after a brief shining period when high commodity prices and rapid growth in government spending pushed economic expansion forward at an 8% annual rate, Argentina once again finds itself facing a downward spiral, after which it will try once more to rebuild its tattered economy. [More]
Although looking backwards, this economic meltdown seems to have come out of nowhere, it did not.  Nor will it reverse very rapidly, I believe. As each day reveals new holes in the global financial dike, more pressure is placed on leaders - and citizens - to rise to the occasion.

Meanwhile, the trust level between nations and finance executives dwindles, and in the end, that is the commodity in greatest shortage.

1 comment:

Ol James said...

"..that is the commodity in greatest shortage."
So true, Mr. John. Although..GREED seems to be the fuel it's running on. Here in BAMA the biggest county is 3+ Billion in debt to Wall Street. Back room politics and trading at it's finest.
In such a Global Economy how can the folks of this world afford to go-long or short on such a commidity??