It's hard to beat the average.
The faces below are the average of 4, 8,16, and 32 faces. According to an experiment, we judge the latter (more average) as more attractive.
[via B2Day]
Meanwhile, the ever discrete economists at the University-That-Formerly-Had-An-Indian-Mascot remind us once again that if a market is truly efficient advisors can't help much.
The purpose of this research report is to summarize the pricing performance of professional market advisory services for the 1995-2004 corn and soybean crops. The first indicator of pricing performance examined in this summary report is the proportion of advisory programs in the top-, middle- and bottom third of the price range. On average, the results show that the frequency of advisory programs pricing in the top-third of the corn price range over 1995-2004 is modest, between 17 and 25%. By far the largest average frequency occurs in the middle third of the corn price range, ranging from 58 to 63%. Price range results for soybeans are similar to the results for corn. The frequency of advisory programs pricing in the top-third of the soybean price is between 17 and 19% and the largest average frequency occurs in the middle third of the soybean price range, ranging from 67 to 69%. This evidence suggests that the average performance of market advisory programs relative to the pricing opportunities provided by the corn and soybean markets is modest at best.
Beating the average is not part of a sound business plan. Striving to seldom fall below it is.
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