This from the Energy Blog referencing this post.
Some key points from the first of four posts in EnergyTechStock.Com: * There is only about 1.2% more oil available each year, not enough to keep up with 1.5% annual demand growth. * Between now and 2010, this supply shortfall will be made up through a drawdown in inventories, helped out by a slowdown in demand in 2008 and 2009 due to a recession or near-recession in the U.S. * In 2010, the shortfall will become greater than can be made up by what’s still in inventory, thus beginning a period of global oil scarcity that will lead to a “peak” in conventional oil production in 2012 or 2013. * It gets even worse in 2015, which is when he expects a peak in the production of all liquids, a category that includes condensates, tar sands oil and biodiesel. * By 2025, “We can create some answers.” He explained that both plug-in electric vehicles and cellulosic biofuel are “wonderful ideas”; however, given that it takes 10 to 15 years or longer to turn over the world’s vehicular fleet, such technological breakthroughs won’t happen quickly enough to prevent the nightmare from happening. In part 2 he forecasts $12 to $15 dollars a gallon gasoline "in a few years" with oil at $180 a barrel in 2015 and $300 a barrel in 2020.Another reason I'm leaning toward more inflation soon.
1 comment:
Malthus lives. Long before $300 oil, world-wide recession will slow consumption growth. Scarcity doesn't lead to peaks in production, it leads to high prices which lead to increases in production.
The only %1.2 more oil available against 1.5% demand growth is a fine example of the Fallacy of Uninterrupted Trends.
Time will tell. In the meantime, it's an interesting subject.
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