Monday, July 30, 2012

Whiskey Tango Foxtrot, USDA!...  

From the recent July 2012 Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Update:

Production:
• Beef: 2011 annual production was changed from 36,195 million pounds to 26,195 million pounds.
• Pork: 2011 annual production was changed from 22,752 million pounds to 22,758 million pounds.
• Pork: Third quarter 2012 production was changed from 5,260 million pounds to 5,620 million pounds.
• Total red meat and poultry: Annual 2012 production was changed from 92,132 million pounds to 92,140 million pounds.
• Total red meat and poultry: Annual 2013 production was changed from 92,742 million pounds to 92,052 million pounds. 
[My emphasis]

Ten million freaking pounds!!!  How do you miss by dang near 40%??

This is hardly confidence inspiring. It involves - to my untrained eye - a spreadsheet cell that should contain a formula adding the four quarters.  Something like:

=SUM(Q1...Q4)

The quarterly numbers seem about right:  ~6.5 million pounds.  So the only way to get 36 M pounds is to a) have a basic and obvious error b) override the total.

Or maybe call it a typo, which itself is damning evidence of incompetence.

Here is a screen shot of the erroneous table:

Sheesh!


Another bushel of trust in the accuracy and integrity of USDA reports is lost.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Not to mention the dyslexic 3rd quarter pork adjustment!