The Great Dance...

August is a time I have come to associate with the courtship of landowners and farmers. In order to satisfy the traditional leasing dates that came due in early fall (based on the need to get the fall crops like wheat sown) any changes in tenancy came to fruition during these days of deep summer.

The new transparency in renting farmland has altered this pattern somewhat, but we still see (at least in my area) feverish activity about now. Too many operators still don't get it. Farmers have little leverage compared to landowners. As a result, I have seen a 10-15% jump in cash rents in my area over last year.

There are still many in my area whose business plan is based on landowners who do not understand their pricing power. This happy circumstance can come to an abrupt halt when death, divorce, or reality intrudes. Especially at risk are those operators who have traditional leases that will convert to market-priced before they can close their career.

Like deer in the headlights, farmers freeze - waiting to be hit or missed. Most will be a victim of an economic collision, because the common expectation is share leases will be converted to cash leases. In other parts of the Cornbelt there is an active denial that such a competitive situation could ever taint their relationship-based economics.

Too many of us thought we were good operators when we were simply fortunate. Luck is a factor in all careers, but I have seen anough evidence to suggest the real test of operator proficiency is to withstand the market forces that currently buffet our profession.

We are, I believe, in the process of selecting the very few who will till America's land. And the choice will be made in in crisp clear numbers. The old myth of cash-renters raping the land has been challenged by a new breed of competitor who can bid high and farm well.

We have always talked about wanting to keep the "best and the brightest on the land". What if we have succeeded?