I think I see one problem...

Like most corn/soy farmers, I'm essentially clueless as to how other crops are grown, especially when it come to irrigated crops. So when I visited Visalia, CA last weekend to talk to young farmers there, it was a true learning experience.

In fact, during one interview (to be shown later on USFR), an almond producer causally mentioned almonds "take about 4 acre-feet of water".  The figure slid by me at the time, but on the flight back, I starting thinking "per what?" - bushel, ton, etc?

It turn out it's PER ACRE. Yup - almonds need 4 FEET of water per year, more or less.

Which led me to this semi-helpful graphic.

[Source]

It turns out almonds are just one of many increasingly thirty, but lucrative crops straining the water supply in CA.

In the past 20 years, the Central Valley has doubled its acreage in almond orchards to nearly 800,000, producing 2 billion pounds a year and exporting 70 percent of the crop, which yields nearly $4 billion in revenue.But almond trees, unlike vegetable crops, can't be taken out of production in dry years. The trees would die. Each acre of almonds needs about 1.3 million gallons of water a year, twice as much as fruits and vegetables, but farmers have planted them without securing sufficient water rights. [More]

This situation looks like a train wreck from here, and that's pretty much what the producers I talked to hinted as well. It looks unlikely that long-term relief will arrive in time or quantity enough to prevent loss of trees (citrus, tree nuts, stone fruits, etc.) since drip irrigation, while efficient, encourages shallow roots which are useless in a drought.

One of the producers also had little sympathy for the almond "speculators" who planted without securing sufficient water rights to cover shortages. He also stated that since the surface water allotment for agriculture this year is ZERO, the rush to drill wells has drillers backed up for a year. His reference to "the longest straw" was explained as the guy with the deepest well will outlast others drawing on the same underground pool of water.

Those supplies are not easily replenished either, so wells are a short-term answer.

I'm looking for a more upbeat ending to this story. Just can't find it 

Why I think corn yields...  

Will be really, really hard to predict. From about 130 Iowa scientists, led by climatologist Gene Takle and signed by Elwynn Taylor, to name a couple familiar to farmers:

1. Globally over the past 30 years, there is clear statistical evidence that extreme high temperatures are occurring disproportionately more than extreme low temperatures. The climate likely will continue to warm due to increasing global emissions and accumulation of greenhouse gases.
2. In a warmer climate, wet years get wetter and dry years get dryer. And dry years get hotter ‐ that is precisely what happened in Iowa this year. We can expect Iowa to experience higher temperatures when dry weather patterns predominate. The latest science, based on overwhelming lines of physical evidence, indicates we can expect dry periods to be more frequent as soon as the 2020s.
3. Iowa also has experienced an increasing frequency of intense rains over the past 50 years (Iowa Climate Change Impacts 2010, www.dnr.gov), likely due to a higher surface evaporation in a warmer world. Because of these extremes in precipitation (drought and flood), Iowans will increasingly need infrastructure investments to adapt to climate fluctuations while developing and implementing mitigation. 
[Source] 

I have been trying to guess what one more strange production year would do in the ag economist community. My understanding is much of our belief in future yields rests on an assumption of weather being a factor whose average doesn't change very fast or much, so assuming past averages should work. Furthermore, as we saw last year, this assumption allows "outlier" years to be discounted as rare anomalies.

But how many 2012's will it take to start the hard work of generating a different weather assumption and its impact on national yields?

Meanwhile, the drought outlook doesn't seem optimistic.

 [More]

And watching The Dust Bowl certainly doesn't reassure either.

Major League Opening Sentence...  

I submit this entry:

When most Americans talk about good-tasting water, they’re talking about water that tastes like their own spit. [More]

Actually a very informative article for us drought-ravaged drinkers. As water tables drop, the old well water can take on an interesting new flavor.

Disaster may be too mild...  

At the risk of agreeing with The Gulk, I think more of us may be getting some rude surprises as we venture into fields that until recently looked decent, if not lush.

The availability bias is clearly in play here, I admit. But, if his experience matches others in areas that have actually had some rain, but didn't pollinate well, more than the Eastern Corn Belt is corn toast.

And his assessment of a "terrifying corn balance sheet" is not hyperbole, I suspect. I also bow to his undoubtedly clearer thinking: he has crop insurance. I do not.

IL on the whole doesn't do well with CI. Over the long term, we get about 43¢ back from every dollar in premium. But that's for the whole state. When you look at my "darn-near drought-proof*" acres, the payout is even less attractive.

 [Click to embiggen] [Source]

Once again, I accept full and final responsibility for my lack of insurance and the consequences due to a Black Swan event like this. I just wish I hadn't spent the last two years preaching about BS events, even pointing out climate change as our most likely BS possibility.

Still, it looks like early planted, early maturing hybrids will make something with three digits. I think we will also see some hybrids with a total FAIL across farms as a result of this year. Which makes seed supply a huge question mark.

But as I thought about it in church this morning, what I think will occur in our professional community will be very similar to a death in the family. Farmers will fluctuate between anger, grief, despair, determination, and courage during a drawn out mourning period. We will know professional embarrassment (This is MY field?) and personal reassessment of how competent we think we are.

It will take time and frankly, rain, to bring closure. So if we're still warm and dry by say, Thanksgiving, I expect some unprecedented decisions and actions. These reactions will impact those around us and along our value chain.

History looks like this. And we are slowly realizing that's what we are writing right now. That's a good thing. If you know it's one for the record books, you want to leave a good account of your own part.

Even if you have to fake it.


*Actual brag from the author. File under: Hubris In Progress

The best drought graphic yet...  

From the NYT. For librul MSM, they do a decent job on stuff like this.

[Click to enlarge]

[Wait -the dates didn't copy. So lower right is 1896. Upper left is 2012. Read left-to-right in each row]