Does this really happen?...

 Part of an e-mail from a friend:

On the grain front, got a call from my closest grain dealer, asking me to change delivery of my remaining August corn to his elevator in southern Lancaster County. He is loading trucks to go to Georgia with corn and does not have enough in the bins to fill the trucks!!! Apparently there is an area that needs corn and likely does not have rail access. The trucks are hauling wheat to the flour mills in this area and taking corn back. Can you say 'long haul'. The story is there is corn nearby, but rain is delaying harvest, so they are coming to Pa, an already corn deficit state for 'surplus' corn.
There are stories of some 1 million bushels still in bins in Pa however. I talked to a trucker who was loading corn out of a bin that the producer told him was 4 years old. I just wondered where he has been the last 2 years with an opportunity to sell in the last 14 months at 9.69 a bushel. I also realize that the truth sometimes can get in the way of a good story.

Man, I have trouble keeping corn until June.  I can't imagine 4-year old corn, but I've hear these stories all my life.  We had trouble with bins picking up moisture this spring, so Maybe they dry it to 12% or something.

Meanwhile, I have always needed to turn grain into money to like, buy groceries, and pay off loans, so maybe I never really had the right circumstances.

FWIW, we had a storm last night to boost our August rain total to .51", which means it won't be a new record low. While there was modest wind, it sure broke a lot of corn over. Is it me or are new hybrids remarkably wind-sensitive?

One day more...  

Before I can go back to being a smartphone user. I sorta drowned my iPhone in the pool two weeks ago, and...it's a long sad story soon to be a FJ John's World.

Anyhoo, I find myself singing.

 

(Boy, Russell Crowe really can't sing, can he?)

After all my bad-mouthing...  

Apple Maps comes up with a cool view of my farm.

If you have anything with iOS6 (iPhone, iPad, etc.) and have upgraded to iOS6 enter my address:

23957 N 2100th. St.
Chrisman, IL 61924

Then select "Satellite" view.  

If you magnify down you can see my house, our farm to the NNE about 1/2 mi. and our combine in the field cutting beans just east of the house.  At the north end of the field is the grain cart half-full, with me likely sleeping in it. The date was September (?) 2011.  The weird patchwork to the east of the combine is a Pioneer Impact plot. The pattern in the field to the north was down corn from a wind in August.

I would have waved had I known...

Disaster may be too mild...  

At the risk of agreeing with The Gulk, I think more of us may be getting some rude surprises as we venture into fields that until recently looked decent, if not lush.

The availability bias is clearly in play here, I admit. But, if his experience matches others in areas that have actually had some rain, but didn't pollinate well, more than the Eastern Corn Belt is corn toast.

And his assessment of a "terrifying corn balance sheet" is not hyperbole, I suspect. I also bow to his undoubtedly clearer thinking: he has crop insurance. I do not.

IL on the whole doesn't do well with CI. Over the long term, we get about 43¢ back from every dollar in premium. But that's for the whole state. When you look at my "darn-near drought-proof*" acres, the payout is even less attractive.

 [Click to embiggen] [Source]

Once again, I accept full and final responsibility for my lack of insurance and the consequences due to a Black Swan event like this. I just wish I hadn't spent the last two years preaching about BS events, even pointing out climate change as our most likely BS possibility.

Still, it looks like early planted, early maturing hybrids will make something with three digits. I think we will also see some hybrids with a total FAIL across farms as a result of this year. Which makes seed supply a huge question mark.

But as I thought about it in church this morning, what I think will occur in our professional community will be very similar to a death in the family. Farmers will fluctuate between anger, grief, despair, determination, and courage during a drawn out mourning period. We will know professional embarrassment (This is MY field?) and personal reassessment of how competent we think we are.

It will take time and frankly, rain, to bring closure. So if we're still warm and dry by say, Thanksgiving, I expect some unprecedented decisions and actions. These reactions will impact those around us and along our value chain.

History looks like this. And we are slowly realizing that's what we are writing right now. That's a good thing. If you know it's one for the record books, you want to leave a good account of your own part.

Even if you have to fake it.


*Actual brag from the author. File under: Hubris In Progress

Yeah, I know...  

I haven't been posting much at all, but I finally decided something had to give. Nonetheless, I miss it, and when I'm retired (date now postponed), I will be back to considerably more activity. Here's where we are in my corner of the Dozen Drought™.

• Last rain 5 weeks ago. Maybe 6 days over 100℉ so far. We are on full water conservation right now as in "Does anybody else need to go?" Rural water district is still 3 years away, but the process to get funding is inching forward. Why do I think this program is likely to be axed during budget talks?
• My March 28 corn (short season) experiment is dented, and the milk line halfway. The shucks are dry and some ears dropping. Leaves fired up to the ear. It counts out to a decent yield, but does the ear drop signal poor test weight? Estimate harvest about 18 August.
• Meanwhile, the full season high amylose corn is strange looking. Variable height, even though it is single cross. Good ears, but just beginning to dent. It was planted late April. Generally yields about 70% of regular corn, but in droughts does comparatively better. No idea how the ears will hold up.
• Beans are waist high, have pods and look OK, except when leaves are flipped in the afternoon. Cripes, how can you tell? A friend who sprayed a fungicide/insecticide mix seems to be on to something. I will look into it next year.
• Spoke to IA Farm Bureau this week. I emceed the whole meeting and the talk there was how fast the road to riches turned south. Driving from home to Ames to Lanesboro, MN showed me plenty of decent corn, although every patch of lighter, higher soil is starting to brown. Also it seems much father behind than home. SE MN looked great. People were actually mowing lawns.
• Speaking with every expert I can find, I am amazed at the range of indemnity payout exposure for the government: $12-50B. While insurance companies and reinsurers are on the hook for much of it, I think the Treasury takes over after certain limits are hit. If this does result in a big hole in the budget, it seems to me a switch to an all insurance-type farm bill gets tougher, especially if it gets booted to next year. The new scheme already has big exposure from low prices. 
• I've got a friend who thinks he will be over $200/A better off than if he had raised 200 BPA corn at $5 due to CI.  Is this a feature or a bug? I am uncomfortable with that being how we make a living in ag. Of course, it is a one-time boondoggle maybe, but still. Reminds me of the Dakota Shuffle.
• I guess premiums could go through the roof next year as a result. I say all this stuff because as part of the 15% (about 40% in my area) who have never had insurance, I am not fully initiated into the deeper mysteries. The curious thing is I can't lose anything if the insurance program gets cut - a perverse comfort.
• I will reconsider crop insurance next year unless we get a mess of rain before March. I suspect it will be a tough call for us, due to a puny APH, uninsurable crops, and expected high premiums. However, I don't want my philosophical positions to pollute Aaron's analysis.
• We have prepared our Apocalypse Budget, and have ways to draw down the equity we put all those premiums we didn't pay into. Looks like we just may skate by, if beans can make 30. Family member and long-time landowners are helping, which is why we have been voluntarily raising rents for years. I think we can make them whole over the next 2-3 years.
• Signed on for another year with Farm Journal. I was drifting toward giving up the commute and responsibility, but I would miss the guys and I am hideously overpaid. Humor articles, however, are little tricky right now.

Like everyone experiencing a painful Black Swan event, I am sure my brain isn't working at optimal efficiency. This is another reason I haven't been posting. The savage political atmosphere doesn't help and I don't want to rant. Frankly, I'm having trouble concentrating.

So I'm just woodworking in the Greenhouse Support Structure. I forked out for a split-unit air conditioner. It works great and is remarkably efficient (SEER = 19). Coupled with time-of-day electricity pricing, I can keep a/c costs quite low. Plus I can't see the fields from inside.

FWIW.

Let's form a club...  

I have somehow neglected to get a tattoo. I'm not alone.

But the new extreme inking is by no means confined to the sporting set. Everywhere I look in Florida, I clock old geezers with hammocks and the word “Margaritaville” emblazoned across their burly sun-blasted torsos. Chicks, too: Today I saw a superannuated South Beach swinger boasting a tarantula on her right shoulder. Every time she hoisted her sippy cup to her lips the spider jiggled. And it’s no longer just a class thingy: I even saw tats at the legendarily WASP-y Bath and Tennis Club in Palm Beach. OK, so they were on the leg of the car-park valet, but just you wait. Next year, the old broads in the canasta salon will be sporting radical ink. Mark my words.

In the past there was one reason, and one reason only, to ink up: A tattoo confirmed your status as a scary outsider rebel carny outlaw sociopath. “Don’t mess with me because I am insane,” was the intended message. And it worked. Remember Robert Mitchum in Night of The Hunter? When he cuts Shelley Winters’ throat we are hardly surprised: We knew trouble was on the horizon as soon as we saw the words LOVE and HATE inked across his knuckles. Tattoos meant mayhem.

Cut to today: Having a tattoo has lost its original meaning. Having a tattoo now has no meaning. Having a tattoo means that you have a tattoo. [More]

I prefer to think of it as "like-new" condition.

****

On a totally unrelated note: Anybody need a automatic talc dispenser? It is similarly new-in-box, and too big for our embarrassingly small model of seed tender. Will autograph. Make an offer.

Since "summer" is here...  

We've opened our pool (three weeks earlier than ever) due to nasties growing in the warming water. Danged if it might not be briskly tolerable by Easter! (We don't heat it).

So this timely PSA:

Drowning, it turns out, does not look like drowning. It often looks like nothing at all. From your point of view at the pool side, in the cabana, at the beach, or on the boat, drowning simply looks like this: The person simply isn't there any more because they quietly slipped to the bottom of the water after quietly struggling mostly out of your sight.

The new captain jumped from the deck, fully dressed, and sprinted through the water. A former lifeguard, he kept his eyes on his victim as he headed straight for the couple swimming between their anchored sportfisher and the beach. "I think he thinks you're drowning," the husband said to his wife. They had been splashing each other and she had screamed but now they were just standing, neck-deep on the sand bar. "We're fine, what is he doing?" she asked, a little annoyed. "We're fine!" the husband yelled, waving him off, but his captain kept swimming hard. "Move!" he barked as he sprinted between the stunned owners. Directly behind them, not ten feet away, their nine-year-old daughter was drowning. Safely above the surface in the arms of the captain, she burst into tears, "Daddy!" How did this captain know - from fifty feet away - what the father couldn't recognize from just ten?...

Read that here.
Drowning is the second most common cause of accidental death among children. Between 500 and 1000 Americans under the age of 15 will drown this year, about half of them within 25 feet of an adult who does not see it happening, and in about one in ten cases the parent will be watching as it happens, watching the kid drown, not realizing what they are seeing. [More]

****

On a hilarious note you'll all enjoy, seconds after I hit the "submit" button for my taxes, I noticed Jan's 1099 for Social Security I had failed to include. Since it was her first year, TurboxTax didn't prompt me to add it. Well, it probably did, but I forget how really, really old she is. 

Filing an amended return is a hassle, BTW.

****

Missed another rain. Planters are stopped.

I'm calling it the "Dozen Drought*". 

*(2012 - get it? I kill me!)

This looks potentially troublesome...  

The newly announced possible link between corn insecticide treatments and bees is a cause for concern.

In Thursday’s issue of the journal Science, two teams of researchers published studies suggesting that low levels of a common pesticide can have significant effects on bee colonies. One experiment, conducted by French researchers, indicates that the chemicals fog honeybee brains, making it harder for them to find their way home. The other study, by scientists in Britain, suggests that they keep bumblebees from supplying their hives with enough food to produce new queens.

The authors of both studies contend that their results raise serious questions about the use of the pesticides, known as neonicotinoids. [More]

The reason I am going to watch this is the possible mechanism by which this occurs - a catalytic effect on fungicides given to the bees for other reasons.

Both Goulson and Mace Vaughn, pollinator program director at the Xerces Society, an invertebrate conservation group, said neonicotinoids won’t be the only cause of colony collapse disorder.
“If it was as simple as that, the answer would have been discovered a long time ago,” said Goulson. “I’m sure it’s a combination of things. I’m sure that disease is a part of it, and maybe the two interact.” He noted a study in which honeybees exposed to neonicotinoids were especially vulnerable to a common bee parasite. Another study found that neonicotinoids dramatically increase the toxicity of fungicides. [More]

That's the kind of complicated chain of events that has made the search for a cause of CCD so difficult. For that reason alone it strikes me as plausible.

Coupling that with issue with the planter-talc problem recently suggested, and you have the beginning of a complex theory of cause and delivery.

*****

 FWIW, we're planting. Central IL has made the drought map, as we have known for months now, and I worry about moisture levels dropping in worked ground faster than new roots can chase them. Also, we're running out of days for a frost, albeit historically, it could still happen, I know. There is no hint on any longer range forecast, however.


If the year turns out to be hot, I'd just as soon be pollinating in June. Soil temps at 4" are an astounding 68℉. If it weren't for the calendar, anyone would swear it was past time to plant.


With all those rationalizations, were going to put it in the ground. The idea of a significant Aug/Sep premium due to short supplies certainly seems possible after yesterday, too. If the season turns out to be great growing conditions, it might be the high for the crop.

Google to the rescue...  

This is about the tenth time this has happened in the last few years. I need a unique, particular device, tool or part, and after checking local sources, professionals, and dealers, I draw a blank.

The problem was attaching our JD 1770 planter to a Case MX315 tractor. We needed all 5 hydraulic outlets (including the mysterious "Power Beyond" set). Only they weren't regular 1/2", #8 BOSS O-ring tips. Cobbling NPT adapters and ORB fittings only slowed the leak to a dribble.

In desperation I googled "hydraulic hose fittings" and arrived promptly here: discounthydraulichose.com

The name alone made me laugh - how typical is that for the Internet age! But not only did they have exactly what I needed, but it was about half the price I could find comparable fittings - even after rush delivery.

This is what I mean by the oncoming productivity that will be boosting our bottom line via the "Borg Effect".  (I have trademarked that, BTW). This is the effortless ability to connect to information and resources that Aaron will use as second nature, and I am continually and happily surprised by.

From bizarre fasteners to appliance parts to unimagined services, my farm is much closer to the hub of the universe than ever before. In fact, we are slowly erasing all the social and cultural penalties for rural living.

Now if we can just get a rural water district...

Junkbox, Episode ILLINOT...  

Things are not going well in the Land of Lincoln

• We can't operate a land grant university
• We can't play college sports competitively
• We don't seem to grasp public finance
• We are missing needed rains
• Our one political moment in the sun was wiped out like an, ummm...

Multiple issues here on the farm, including working to get a rural water district started, speeches. field work, and the now-incredible complexity of hooking a green planter with a red tractor and third-party electronics. No excuse, but posting came in last.

The Phipps Grain Bin Rally...  

Oh yeah, I'm officially taking credit for this corn rally. The Argentines arranged their drought just to have one last cheap shot at me.

As I have mentioned before (at least in speeches) I have built two of the world's most expensive free grain bins under the Cargill Grain Bin Program. This year I thought I was home free.  My target price was $6.34 on the first trading close in February. If Mar corn closes below that, my 41,000 bushels no longer have to be delivered.

Once - just one - I thought I was going to win one. (This is third and final year of the contract) If we coulda just stayed below the trigger AND THEN HAD A BIG RALLY, I could have matched a friend of mine whose bin experience was just that: his trigger was a half-cent higher than the close, and he went on to sell the contents for zillions. He mentions it often...

So as we motor to $7 please wave to me in the rearview mirror.

[Just in case you are new or confused, this is all very tongue-in-cheek. I would never have built the bins without the program, they have already paid for themselves, and railing at higher markets because you voluntarily sold earlier is nonsense.]

It just doesn't feel like a win.

If only NASS could issue a report between now and then...

Junkbox, Episode XMEN...  

I hate moving to a new computer, so I was blown away by the "Migration Assistant" on my Apple iMacs. The computer asked me which computer I was moving from when it found my network, told me it would take about 5.5 hours, and started the move.

About 6 hours later, I essentially had two identical computers. The new 27" screen adds mostly width, but is still a welcome addition for worsening eyes. The speed is noticeably zippier, and I've eliminated some annoying freezes.

Best of all, I get to play Santa Claus to one of nieces/nephews/friends and hand off my old Mac.

Some stuff I've found:

• It's a big fracking deal. The magnitude of this energy boom is just sinking in. Especially in ND.
• Uneasy lie the heads that wear the expensive hats
• Where the coal trains will be heading
• Silicon Valley may be choking its own recovery
• Getting workers to rural boom towns. Not easy.
• The man who starved his country

First!...  

So we decided to mow the lawn today. 

I'll start on the pool tomorrow...

Keep an eye on Mike Hoffman* next week on USFR. He's out on a limb about an abrupt dive into deep winter next week, but I'm not so sure (at least for us).

If he's wrong, I'll try not to mention it...

*Seriously, this guy has made me a lot of money when deciding whether to plant or let stuff field dry, etc.

A squirrel ate my Internet...  

This could become Numero Uno in my Timeless Excuses List™. I was getting intermittent signals from my WAN radio and it finally gave up altogether this week after over 4" of rain* last week.


The coax cable was leaking water from outside into the power port.  A squirrel (my guess) chewed the insulation off up by the receiver. 


I just can't take the fuss of posting from the iPad so I went dark, and surfing was so slow I fooled around getting the floor finished in the new woodshop. We're back to a full 5 Megs without periodic hangs to boot, so life is good. I"ll try to get some stuff up this weekend.

*November is now my wettest month at 8.1". Go figure.

Kiss a half-hour goodbye...

My latest comic find: Savage Chickens

 [BTW, I was right. Full-season hybrids are worse.]

Weekend Update...  

We've only done about 80 acres, but the early (105 day) corn was better than expected (185-200). The later planted, fuller season drops off, judging by some end rows and half-ears.

Guys around me are getting very good beans, however, 60-65. Our early beans were less, but still better than we imagined. For the first time in four years we at least had some plants on the heavy black parts instead of holes, so those areas handled the dryness better.

Lighter soils and c-o-c are 30-50 bpa less reportedly.

Meanwhile, the cold temps last night have me scrambling to get the heaters in the greenhouse and GSS going.

Three engineers...  

With five degrees, and it took all we had to get this up this weekend.

It should be clear why a 64' x 30' workshop was needed to support this structure.

Tillage experiment...

We're testing a vertical tillage tool from Kongskilde (disclosure: I am on the board of directors).  It seems too good to be true, but this machine is allowing us to get into fields 1-2 days earlier. Nobody else is running beside us, and the finisher was a real mistake.

We're running about 2-3 inches deep, 9 mph, 4 degrees gang angle.  So far it opens up the thin dry layer and doesn't produce clods.  Our hope is to follow a day later with the planter.  It levels extremely well.

In the fall we'll use in on cornstalks.

I'll let you know.  But we're convinced we need to try something as the last four springs have not given us long stretches in between rains, and then you get what we got the last 6 days- a s-l-o-w storm that prevents drying even when you don't get much rain.

Coupled with more tile, I hope we're expanding our planting windows.

It's what you do when you agree with John Huntsman on climate change.

The right smacked Ryan and Gingrich into Correct Thinking. Let's see how long his belief holds up.

What is with this low pressure system?...

We seem to be stuck in a immobile storm system that features heavy overcast skies, occasional showers, and a constant 52℉. Worse still, like some lame Star Trek NG plot device, it is sucking my lifeforce and rendering me intellectually and morally inert.

So when I read about one of my favorite bloggers being assaulted last night in DC while walking home, it just seemed to fit.

So . . . I was walking back from the home of Megan McArdle and Peter Suderman and instead of doing the normal thing and taking Q Street west to 5th and then walking south, I wanted to take a shortcut by walking south on North Capitol to then cut southwest on New York. But then lo and behold right by Catania Bakery a couple of dudes ran up from behind, punched me in the head, then kicked me a couple of times before running off. Once, years ago, in Amsterdam a guy threatened me with a knife and took my money. These guys took nothing, and just inflicted a bit of pain. All things considered the threaten/rob model of crime seems a lot more beneficial to both parties than the punch-and-run model. But I guess it takes all kinds.To offer a policy observation, higher density helps reduce street crime in an urban environment in two ways. One is that in a higher density city, any given street is less likely to be empty of passersby at any given time. The other is that if a given patch of land has more citizens, that means it can also support a larger base of police officers. And for policing efficacy both the ratio of cops to citzens and of cops to land matters. Therefore, all else being equal a denser city will be a better policed city.That said, as a matter of personal ethics you really shouldn’t run around punching random dudes in the back of the head irrespective of the prevailing level of population density or policing. [More]

The comment thread really brightened my day, though. Check out some of the wit.

This just in...

(Or maybe out) I have a new grandson: Duncan Jack Phipps*.

10 pounds 2 ounces, 21 inches.

I'm going to see him and the blog can just wait.


*I'm assuming it's not "Dunkin' Jack" (which would be pretty awesome as well)