Canada corn...

While most American farmers are debating climate change, neighbors to the north are trying to cash in. Here is where there are now enough GDU's to grow corn.

[Much better bigger - click]

Growing seasons on the Canadian prairie have lengthened about two weeks in the past half-century. The mean annual temperature is likely to climb by as much as 3 degrees Celsius (5 degrees Fahrenheit) in the region by 2050, according to Canadian researchers.In Canada, that means amber waves of wheat are giving way to green fields of corn. Farmers sowed a record 405,000 acres of corn in Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta last year, double the amount two years earlier and almost eight times what it was 20 years ago. That compares with an estimated 95.4 million acres sown in the U.S. last year. [More]

One key is crop insurance, which as we all know now determines how we will farm. And insurers are on board.

Improvements to the Crop Insurance Program for 2014 include a pilot program to provide yield-loss coverage for corn in the east central and southeast areas of the province.  In addition, the establishment benefit feature has also been expanded to include coverage for corn of $65 per acre. [More]

In the words of economist Kevin Costner, "If you cover it, they will plant." - or something like that.

All over the world, businesses large and small are spending billions to mitigate (more likely) profit from global warming and other climate changes. Watching these unfold is probably more useful than trying to sway public opinion to the latest IPCC conclusions.

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As minimal as it is for North America (except the West), it's pretty bad news for India,China, Africa, and Australia. So we're talking ~7 billion folks with very probable food supply issues in the future.

Take a breath, cowboy...

If you want to see what cable-TV ranting has done to opinion writing, consider this jeremiad from a rodeo aficionado.

It’s time to man the Ramparts: Our Western Heritage is Under Attack
Guy Weadick and Pat Burns who were instrumental in organizing the first Calgary Stampede in 1912 must be rolling over in their graves with the most recent announcement about how the Rangeland Derby is being changed to placate those most of whom unfortunately, wouldn’t know the front end of an Angus Steer from the back end of a pick up truck. We are now going to have two outriders and not the four that we have had for time eternal in the Chuckwagon Races, and for all the wrong reasons. To those who made the decisions, if you think that this is the end of the battle about what a Rodeo or more specifically what the Rangeland Derby should look like you are sadly mistaken. This is only one small minute battle that a select group has once again won in the real war that is being waged and that ultimate goal is I believe to totally ban all Rodeos from existence.
It’s time to say enough is enough. It’s amazing how history repeats itself. In September of 1938, Neville Chamberlain, Prime Minister of the England, returned from Germany after signing the Munich Agreement with Hitler. The Munich Agreement gave the Sudetenland (a Czech territorial possession) to Germany on the premise that this would end Germany’s aspirations. This agreement was reached without
Czech input by Britain and France who wanted to avoid war at all cost. Remember how Chamberlain waved the document while debarking the airplane that returned him from Germany, all the while smiling and saying “Peace in our Time?” The ink wasn’t even dry on the document before Hitler invaded Poland, the event that kick started World War Two. The failed strategy caused Chamberlain to leave office in disgrace to make way for the British Bulldog Winston Churchill, but the damage had been done, and millions would die in the succeeding conflict. The reason that the Munich Agreement was a train wreck was that the European Powers failed to realize what Hitler’s true agenda was and what his ultimate objective from the start entailed. In short, Hitler played the other European powers very successfully and they ended up fighting a far more major conflict than would have been the case had they had the backbone to stop Hitler dead in his tracks early on.
Sacrificing one’s principles didn’t work then and it doesn’t work any better now. The well financed groups that incessantly challenge our rights and privileges to a rural way of life are not going away. They will not rest until they have achieved their ultimate goal which is to totally and completely decimate our ability to lead the life that we have all chosen. Do we have a right to protect our heritage? Do we have a right to protect our way of life? Do others have the right to superimpose their value systems on us? I say not now and not ever. If you continue to allow these groups to chip away at those things that we cherish and value then we will wake up some morning and those things will be gone forever, not only for us but for our children and grandchildren. I for one am sick and tired of being castigated for my treatment of animals. [More, and the hysteria only mounts as he takes his arguments to absurd predicted extremes]

Now it could be that I am misreading a pathetically bad attempt at sarcasm. If that the case, this cowboy should stick to their famed poetry.

But obviously he is unaware of Godwin's Law when invoking Hitler.

There are many corollaries to Godwin's law, some considered more canonical (by being adopted by Godwin himself)^[3] than others.^[1] For example, there is a tradition in many newsgroups and other Internet discussion forums that once such a comparison is made, the thread is finished and whoever mentioned the Nazis has automatically "lost" whatever debate was in progress. This principle itself is frequently referred to as Godwin's law. It is considered poor form to raise such a comparison arbitrarily with the motive of ending the thread. There is a widely recognized corollary that any such ulterior-motive invocation of Godwin's law will be unsuccessful. [More]

I don't even know what the "outrider" issue is, but I'm willing to bet it is not the End of Civilization he describes. And it is fair to point out I don't have much in common with this profession.

Still when all you have to get strung out about is rodeo rules,  it is a powerful argument that Canada is pretty good place to be living right now.

It wasn't just Vancouver...

Canada had no winter. At least by their standards.

From the balmy Arctic, to the open water of the St. Lawrence and snowless western fields, this winter has been the warmest and driest in Canadian record books.
Environment Canada scientists report that winter 2009/10 was 4 C above normal, making it the warmest since nationwide records were first kept in 1948. It was also the driest winter on the 63-year record, with precipitation 22 per cent below normal nationally, and down 60 per cent in parts of Alberta, Saskatchewan and Ontario.
"It's beyond shocking," David Phillips, a senior climatologist with Environment Canada, told Canwest News Tuesday. Records have been shattered from "coast to coast to coast."
"It is truly a remarkable situation," says Phillips, noting that he's seen nothing like it in his 40 years of weather watching. He also warns that "the winter than wasn't" may have set the stage for potentially "horrific" water shortages, insect infestations and wildfires this summer.
As much of Asia, Europe and the U.S. shivered through and shovelled out of freak winter storms, Phillips says Canada was left on the sidelines.
"It's like winter was cancelled in this country," he says. [More]

You have to wonder if corn seed companies are eying the Canadian Prairies.

Also there is good article on climate change in Successful  Farming March Issue, which they may get around to posting on the their website someday.

[Remember these are ℃ - the big ones]

Go, Canada...

Not being a hockey fan, but having a professional interest in plumbing, this struck me as deeply important stuff.

The water utility in Edmonton, EPCOR, published the most incredible graph of water consumption last week. By now you’ve probably heard that up to 80% of Canadians were watching last Sunday’s gold medal Olympic hockey game. So I guess it stands to reason that they’d all go pee between periods.
But still—the degree to which the water consumption matches with the key breaks in the hockey game is stunning. [More]

I guess this explains the phrase "flushed with victory".


[via iglesias]

While we're still facing north...

Jan passed along a helpful post from one of her favorite bloggers - Doug Green - who is (through no fault of his own) Canadian.  There are several helpful pointers for Americans who don't know much about our neighbors, but I think he nails one thing on the head.

The difference is much more profound than that.
The U.S. has enshrined the rights of individuals into its fabric – with those rights above the rights of any other group or organization.
Canada has built the rights of the “common good” into our system and this trumps the rights of the individual.
Our entire political structures (both countries) are based on this simple, yet profound difference.
We believe the common good demands health care access for all. You believe that individuals should have the right to decide.
We believe the common good demands control of handguns and military style weapons in private hands. You have organizations whose very existence depends on promoting this right for individuals.
We believe that the common good demands we set eduction standards that are enforced and met across each province so all children have equal access to equal education and we fund each student equally no matter where they live. You believe in leaving education and funding of that system to the individuals in their communities.

It is this difference in our view of the world – a view of common good versus individual rights that makes the subtle but profound differences in our institutions and way of life. [More]

Even better are the illustrative videos like..



I know I learn more about the world by simply crossing our northern border.  It's a shame we don't do it more often.

Winter is relative...

When I spoke in Regina last winter, I met a young woman who was changing careers and she has kpet in touch.  Her new home is...well, read for yourself:

I am Kelli and I am now in the Great White North of Cambridge Bay, Nunavut, Canada. I had a friend encourage me to create a blog of my adventure newsletter I have been sending out for the last month to a few of my friends. So far there are only two newsletters...I can't believe I have been here for a month already...and so I am going to take his suggestion and begin this blog. This one may be a bit long, but as he suggested I should include a little background to bring everyone up to speed. So, I will try to keep this short, but at least set the scene before I leave you.

Well, the story opens with me becoming like many other Canadians, I lost my job due to the economy. Ahh, the day sucked, but I held onto the thought that everything happens for a reason and there is a reason for everything. So, I began my self-preservation and keeping a roof over the head of my son and my son's nanny, my Mom. (believe me when I say thank heavens for Mom's, they are the greatest creation in the world!). And the world does work out for the best as you will find as you read on.

I looked for work for 5 months putting out 55 resumes and received about 5 interviews. In the mean time I kept busy working part-time for a wonderful group of people at a pharmacy across the street from where I lived to try and tried to look on the bright side of life. I was stressed, but I just clung to the thought that everything would be ok in the end. I also leaned on a lot of shoulders during that time and talked to people that gave me some fantastic advice. Well, that 5th interview was with the company that I currently work for and I found myself moving to the Great White North. I was OK with everything because I felt that this was my dream job in a dream location. (Honestly, I even said that in my interview! Ask them, I really did!)

I have had opportunities to work in the north during the summers of my consulting career (8 years total) and fell in love with what I saw. Mind you what I saw was a lot of short trees because I had never been north of the treeline/arctic circle. But, I felt that this was my chance to live in the great white north. My son is young enough that he hasn't started school yet or he hasn't gotten highly involved in activities so it would be a life-building experience for him and me. I want my son to have the things that I didn't have (every parent's dream right?). I also wanted to experience a place that not many others get to see or experience in their lifetime for a variety of reasons. Never mind Hollywood, for this girl the north is where dreams come true :) [More]

Good luck, Kelli!

I'll be following her adventure and will post more from time to time.  Check her blog for the continuing story from what can only be described as a frontier, and a woman as indomitable as any pioneer.

Canada is dry...

When I was in Alberta recently, farmers from several areas were talking drought.  You know how hard it is to get your mind around that problem when you can't drain water off fast enough - or get much sunshine and degree-days.

But, the problem may actually just be starting.

A huge swathe of farmland spanning central Saskatchewan and Alberta, and angling northwest into British Columbia’s Peace River valley has suffered its driest winter and spring in at least 50 years (and 70 in some districts). Rainfall has been less than 40% of its normal level. Ranchers are staring at dry water holes and desiccated pasture, forcing them either to sell cattle or buy feed. Farmers are kicking at shrivelled crops. Heavy rains in late June and early July may make some fields worth harvesting but many are already lost. Some 900 farmers around Kindersley, south-west of Saskatoon, have ploughed their crops under and claimed insurance, according to Stewart Wells, the president of Canada’s National Farmers Union. He foresees losses of up to 30% in wheat, barley, rapeseed and hay, and more if the drought continues.
Worse, such conditions may become the norm. David Schindler, an ecologist at the University of Alberta, says that evidence from tree rings and ancient algae suggests that the prairies were drought-prone in the past and that the 20th century was unusually wet. The prairies lie in the eastern rain shadow of the Rocky Mountains. Almost all their rivers flow eastward from the Rockies. As global warming melts mountain glaciers, the rivers’ summer flow has dwindled by up to 60% (more in one case) of their historical average. But more water is being drawn from them for cities, irrigation and the processing of oil from tar sands. Mr Schindler fears that unless these trends are reversed, the prairies risk becoming semi-desert.[More] 

While I resist pointing to this as evidence of climate change, since I refute contrary claims of the same sort, the oil-shale-water linkage is a known issue in the Canadian water management problem.

Development of oil shale resources will require significant quantities of water for mine and plant operations, reclamation, supporting infrastructure, and associated economic growth. In 1980, the US Office of strategic assessment estimated water requirements of 2.3 to 5.7 barrels of water per barrel of oil.^[21] More current estimates based on updated oil shale industry water budgets suggest that requirements for new retorting methods will be 1 to 3 barrels of water per barrel of oil.^[22] For an oil shale industry producing 2.5 million barrels per day, this equates to between 105 and 315 million US gallons of water per day. These numbers include water requirements for power generation for in-situ heating processes, retorting, refining, reclamation, dust control and on-site worker demands. Municipal and other water requirements related to population growth associated with industry development will require an additional 58 million gallons per day. Hence, a 2.5 MMBbl/d oil shale industry would require 180,000 acre feet (220,000,000 m³) to 420,000 acre feet (520,000,000 m³) of water per year, depending on location and processes used. ^[23]

The largest deposit of oil shale in the United States is in the Green River basin. Though scarce, water in the western United States is treated as a commodity which can be bought and sold in a competitive market.^[23] Royal Dutch Shell has been reported to be buying groundwater rights in Colorado as it prepares to drill for oil in the shale deposits there.^[24] In the Colorado Big-Thompson project, average prices per share (0.7 acre feet/share) increased from some $2,000 in 1990 to more than $12,000 in mid-2003 (constant 2001 dollars).^[25] CBT Prices from 2001 to 2006 has had a range of $10,000 to $14,000 per share, or $14,000 to $20,000 per acre foot. ^[26] In August 2009 asking prices in Utah (ex-salt lake city) ranged from $8,000-$15,000/AF.^[27] At $10,000 per acre foot, capital costs for water rights to produce 2.5m bbls/day would range between $1.8 bn-$4.2 bn. [More]

Complicating this whole economic analysis is the fact mineral rights are retained by the provinces, not the property of private owners.  Consequently, some very peculiar business decisions could be made under political pressure, I would hazard.

Intelligence from Canada...

[Insert your joke here].

I spoke today to a remarkable group of Canadian producers at a ski resort near Calgary.  It was 8°. (You do the math.) 

Some impressions:

• Saskatchewan is about as far from the perils of the global recession as The Shire is from Mt. Doom. Seriously, the stunning change of political power in 2007 has unleashed a torrent of entrepreneurial output and is propelling the province forward like a miniature China.
• Of course, oil, uranium and potash revenues don't really hurt either. Also, even Canadians admit potash prices are way outta line.
  
• I'm pretty sure these guys could hand us our heads as technology users if they only had a few more years of global warming and the Canadian Wheat Board disappeared.  I was tres impressed with the sessions I sat through.
• I drove to the Kananaskis resort area in the rain, but coming back today, it was one of the most dazzling mountain vistas this flatlander has ever beheld.
• I'm going to get some of the files from the presentations I saw.  The one on fertilizer was truly impressive with one chart that really captures this bizarre market. (Pure tease)
  
• As the new administration works to undo years of unproductive socialist programs they are racking up impressive economic gains that will be harder to sustain long-term, I think.
• Canada's livestock industry is already hurting - especially hogs. Any hint of more protectionism from the US (and I think it's coming) will not be good news for this cattle-intense province.
• I now know more about Falling Numbers than I want to.
  

No pictures, but I'm getting a new Blackberry in August. (It's amazing how our lives revolve around cell-phone contracts.)