The Junkbox...

Is now my Twitter feed.  I'm using Twitter to post my links to stuff with brief comments - it's much faster than copy-pasting and I can do several a day.

The longer stuff will still be here.

Just follow @jwphipps.

Twits on Twitter...

Yes, I've degraded myself to 140-character wisecracks and am tweeting.

Worse yet, I think I'm starting to enjoy it.

FWIW, I will tweet whenever I have a new post, so if you follow me you can follow Incoming as well.

In transition...  

For my handful of loyal readers, this explanation of what is going on here at Incoming.  Basically, I am dealing with a confluence of several transitions in my life and career(s). These include:

1. Shifting the farm operation to Aaron.  This has proven mildly complicated but we are moving forward with rental ground renewing under his name, experimenting with machinery transfer/rental schemes, and getting a handle on what my contribution needs to be.
2. Forming a joint operation with a neighboring family with a similar family structure. Begun this year, it has exceeded all my expectations and we are rapidly finding ways to exploit more efficiencies and adapt.
3. Preparing for retirement economics.  Our goal is to have minimal income but still be able to backstop Aaron with cash rent adjustments on our own ground to help him to weather difficult times or take advantage of unexpected opportunities. Our effort to transfer assets and income to our sons has been in place for some time, but I'm still trying to get my head around how to adapt to a new leaner economic status. Profligacy turned out to be one of my core skills.
4. Completing the income tax hangover cure as my farm income drops and depreciation becomes a thing of the past. See also "machinery" in #1. One more year should get me past this economic time-bomb. $4 corn doesn't help, BTW.
5. Slight adjustments at US Farm Report - I'll be taking more time off  - as well as fewer speaking engagements (maybe 4-5 per year). Bluntly put, I'm tired of the road, even with clearly generous compensation. FJ has been very kindly flexible, and I'll still be writing for TP and FJ as usual.
6. Get maybe one more major trip/cruise with friends accomplished before any or all of us no longer are capable or interested in traveling. This can happen much sooner than we want or expect, I have learned this year.
7. Free up more time for woodworking, church, supporting friends and family during tough times like illness, and doing more Grandpa stuff. Plus Jan and are both more keenly aware the time we have together in good health may not be as unending as we had always assumed. This year has seen a spate of heartbreaks for couples we care for and we are rethinking our own time allocations. Like most farm couples, we have gotten used to enormous chunks of time together, and we no longer take them for granted.
8. I will be participating in the Good Judgment Project this year.  It will take considerable research time on my part. This will affect Incoming, of course. I will share my results and more info on the blog.
9. Maybe collect and self-publish my columns - humor for sure, but perhaps the commentary as well.

While I sorta saw all this stuff coming, the social and economic context keeps shifting even as we work through the issues. Many of the these developments were unexpected and the future undoubtedly holds more surprises we can't imagine right now.

Here is the deal for you guys. Looking at December 2014 (when I turn 66, hint, hint) as a major milestone, I will try to post at least 1-2 times per week until then. But I love blogging and once I'm home more will target about then to return to 1-2 posts daily. I have yet to decide how to handle the growing paywall problem for bloggers at WaPo, NYT, WSJ, Sullivan, The Browser, etc. I think it is reasonable for me to expect to invest a chunk to have full access, but you guys should be able to follow the links for free.

Bottom line is I will continue to post fitfully for a few months with a return to full-blown blithering around the end of next year. Thanks for reading and your friendship over the years, and I look forward to your inputs and put-downs as I opine on just exactly how the world would be if I were King.

Just suppose...  

I told you that Jan and I were going on a cruise to somewhere in Europe. [Hint] We're thinking about asking local friends to go with us. Would any of you oddly loyal readers want to know about this and possibly join us? No organization, but honestly, I would love to sit down and visit with some of you guys without having to type with two fingers. We'd just be a bunch of peculiar persons who wind up on the same ship and decide then how much time we want to spend with each other.

This would be next year.

Probably. Or not.

And I may be able to get some discounts, but no promises.

No, you don't have to attend any lectures by yours truly.*

No pressure. We'll go without y'all, anyhoo.

*Unless that would make it tax-deductible.

[You can reply privately (not counting NSA) to my e-mail.]

Taking some time...  

Loyal reader Kevin asks about what's going on here in IL.  The posts have been sparse for a variety of reasons: some distant family health issues, lack of motivation, competition from my woodshop, and The Paywall Problem (about which I will post soon).

As for the crops, we thought we would have a three-day window beginning 5/15 so the two families now working together on our adjacent farms decided to hit it as hard as possible. Running almost 24/7 we put the whole crop in in 8 days - 4100 acres. The three day window expanded just enough to get it done, and the crop has emerged very well. However, it took the older generation some time to recover. (We were counting on some interruptions that never happened, I think)

I think this type of season - with narrow windows - may be more likely in the future for our part of the world. It what climatologists told us would happen. The expensive tile we installed finally generated some payback, but also illuminated the need for yet more.

Since then, the corn is showing variability - not unusual, but more than expected. Still, I wouldn't trade ours for any fields I have seen in my travels. All in all - absolutely no complaints.

We are working to get spraying done in between showers, but have not had the big rains experienced both north and south of us.

I appreciate all who read, and have been feeling guilty for not posting, but not quite guilty enough, I guess.

More soon.

Author's note...  

A recent comment questioned whether I even read comments. Actually, Blogger - my blog engine - emails each comment to me before it is posted, even the spam. I normally do not reply, since I make my comments in the post itself or a follow-up post. I view comments as a place for readers themselves to interact, if they wish, rather than a debate forum between readers and me.

Thanks for both reading and commenting.

Rejoice!...  

Here's wishing you a great Christmas. We're full of excited <7 yr-olds poised to open presents. Jan and I are up because that's what old people with old habits do. Meanwhile I still have to get ready for my bank meeting Tuesday.

Am I the only one who is continuing to be shocked by the hockey stick that is the business of farming? The numbers are relatively enormous compared with just a few years ago - and that's QuickBooks talking, not just me. Now add in I'm not farming the whole farm either - just about half.

In talking to farmers and those who work with us, I haven't heard one suggest our businesses could either stay this good or get better. And yet...

Oddly, I believe they can and very probably will. Moreover, I am convinced we are beginning to manage this prosperity slightly better each season.

Anyhoo, that outcome is what I wish for all of you guys.

Better and better...  

After Herculean effort, my ISP guy (a young farmer/engineer neighbor) has fired up a REAL Internet connection.  I use picpitstop.com to measure speed and I've been hitting 13+ Meg (down) and nearly 1M up.

However, something screwy is going on with my Mac and Airport router.  I have to restart several times, swap cords, reconfigure, sacrifice a chicken, and I still don't know what happens. I have to get that squared away and write the Christmas letter today.


I'll try to post some stuff before I drop off for no good reason.


(I'll bet I need a new 27" iMac, don't you?)

A squirrel ate my Internet...  

This could become Numero Uno in my Timeless Excuses List™. I was getting intermittent signals from my WAN radio and it finally gave up altogether this week after over 4" of rain* last week.


The coax cable was leaking water from outside into the power port.  A squirrel (my guess) chewed the insulation off up by the receiver. 


I just can't take the fuss of posting from the iPad so I went dark, and surfing was so slow I fooled around getting the floor finished in the new woodshop. We're back to a full 5 Megs without periodic hangs to boot, so life is good. I"ll try to get some stuff up this weekend.

*November is now my wettest month at 8.1". Go figure.

Weekend Update...  

We've only done about 80 acres, but the early (105 day) corn was better than expected (185-200). The later planted, fuller season drops off, judging by some end rows and half-ears.

Guys around me are getting very good beans, however, 60-65. Our early beans were less, but still better than we imagined. For the first time in four years we at least had some plants on the heavy black parts instead of holes, so those areas handled the dryness better.

Lighter soils and c-o-c are 30-50 bpa less reportedly.

Meanwhile, the cold temps last night have me scrambling to get the heaters in the greenhouse and GSS going.

If you had any doubts...  

About the attitude of at least some financial traders, this should dispel them.

[Yeah - the posting is really slow, but I sliced my thumb open on some electrical tubing and my whole hand is useless. It will pick up after harvest and construction completion. Honest.]

Priorities...  

As I spend almost all available time in my new workshop getting the power and water systems running and moving tools, etc., I have found I feel less guilty about posting. As if I had the time anyway.

I think Jan and I may be moving to another phase of our lives, and I'm finally letting go of a lot of the pressures to speak and write above and beyond my FJ obligations. I having more time to farm and already have my growing list of projects (furniture, mostly) for family members.

I'll probably post more this winter, as I am not speaking nearly as much. But I frankly don't know what my goals for Incoming are.

I'm keeping it open, and may surprise you and me both.

As always, thanks for reading. See you whenever...

Three engineers...  

With five degrees, and it took all we had to get this up this weekend.

It should be clear why a 64' x 30' workshop was needed to support this structure.

In case you had given up...  

I'm still blogging, but shut down following the last week of ProPricing and all our family coming home for Labor Day. We're using this event to get the greenhouse on the GSS.

Some random observations over the last few days.

• I see more and more examples of business decisions driven by climate change. From the carbon footprint analysis for pork producers to the curious Chinese Icelandic "resort" that could be related to post-ice trans-arctic trade. It is influences like these, from competitors to customers that will shift many opinions.
• Not to mention current weather trends.
• I still think acreage for corn will be heavily affected by corn-on-corn performance (or lack) in much of the eastern Cornbelt. What if those years of just-as-good yields were the exceptions due to remarkably good weather? And the possible single-Bt failure is equally ominous.
• Which leads me to think seed corn pricing could be a debacle, between trait value questions, another "Liberty-like" blunder, and seed supply problems.
• Our corn is surprisingly wet - like 26%. I had assumed it had given up weeks ago, but apparently not. I am still not optimistic about yields, but our plan to start early (Tuesday) is on hold until we can get more than ear samples. BTW, the slight tendency is for NASS to overestimate the yield.
• I can't get my mind around the concept of an early frost. Especially after this weekend.

Thanks for your patience.

Slower and slower...  

I can't quite put my finger on it, but it seems to take me longer to do less than say when I was 35 or so. Who knew?

Anyhoo, I'll finish the Cargill Propricing meetings* this week (until December), and we'll start corn right after Labor day. Meanwhile, I need to get the GSS heated, plumbed, and wired. The actual greenhouse is going up next weekend as a project for the whole family.

So posting may be shallow until post-harvest, so to speak.

Thanks for reading.

*At the risk of sounding like a Tool, check out the new ProMax contract. If I had to design a contract, it would look like this. Given my belief in continued strong demand and production issues, the Jul-Nov high-tick guarantee on 50% of the bushels looks like a solid.

Weekend Update...  

Just can't get much posting done. This may sound lame, but part of the problem is my iPad. There is no good app for posting on it, and even the ones I've tried don't do links very well.

But the truth is between meetings (see at right) and the show (USFR), I just run out of time and ambition. Plus I think a little time off would not be amiss.

So my spare time at home will be spent working on my GSS, getting ready for a harvest approaching at warp speed (nope - no rain to date, and I think the fat lady has sung on the corn anyhoo).

Yield checks were dismaying, but at least we don't have any corn-on-corn (Yikes!!).

Thanks for reading.

Entertaining the unthinkable...  

Conservative David Frum continues his journey toward a workable political philosophy. His experience is similar in many ways to mine and others I have listed. Today he offers a short, but profound admission that you will not hear from many who cannot embrace their own possible fallibility.

If I can’t follow where most of my friends have gone, it is because I keep hearing Susan Sontag’s question in my ears. Or rather, a revised and updated version of that question:

Imagine, if you will, someone who read only the Wall Street Journal editorial page between 2000 and 2011, and someone in the same period who read only the collected columns of Paul Krugman. Which reader would have been better informed about the realities of the current economic crisis? The answer, I think, should give us pause. Can it be that our enemies were right?

To those of you who write in opposition to my opinions, I hear you. I feel the scorn and anger in your words. And I remind myself often you could be right. It is my hope that painful and relentless exercise will best get me to solutions and hope.

Meanwhile, back at the desk...  

I installed Mac Lion this morning, with all the high drama an OS entails.  So far it is going fine, but the indexing will keep it running slow for a few hours. I'll try to give you a review once I have used it some.

This month is also the month I sold my soul to Cargill.  We have 2-3 meetings a week all month. I'll post the dates/locations.

Greenhouse was delivered today (as I was leaving) so another project for the immediate future.

We got a little rain (missed some great rains) but are no worse than last year. Really tired of hot weather and especially hot nights.

I'll try to read about the debt deal and cogitate on the road what it might mean for ag.

Balls in the air...  

Latest count: about 5.  I'm pretty busy with Aaron gone on vacation and the drainage contractor showed up to lay the main for another 200 acre field this fall. It's really creepy mowing down perfectly good soybeans and 10' corn, but getting it done now means we'll be at the top of the list for the rest of the system when the crops come off. Although we are dry, the lawn is just now starting to brown, and the corn is only showing minimal stress.

Meanwhile, I am busy wiring my new GSS (Greenhouse Support Structure). Jan wanted a greenhouse and I talked her into a lean-to model.

 

 [Update: this is the catalog photo - just an example of what it will look like, after my skilled craftsmanship tangles with glass and plastic]

This is the actual GSS. Greenhouse will be located by the middle door.

My suggestion was a modest 30' x 64' woodshop for it to lean on. It was finished about 3 weeks ago, and the electrician just finished the entrance.

BTW - have you priced copper wire lately!!!

So, I'm wiring and plumbing and getting ready to actually erect the greenhouse.  Which is where we came in, I believe.

Bottom line: blogging is falling down the list. While these are "interesting times" as they say, I am pressed for computer time and having more fun with these other ventures.

Thanks for reading. I'll post as I can.

Did I miss anything?...  

Arrived back from Italy/Turkey/Greece yesterday. (Tomorrow?) It's either 4 am. or September according to my body clock, so just letting you know the trip was a once-in-a-lifetime event. It was the longest I have ever taken off from my job, and as such, a powerful experience in perspective about what I want the future to look like.

Sometimes you really need to stop and smell the martinis.

More soon, but I have a USFR taping/speech for Wyffels today (Tuesday) and tomorrow and Cargill ProPricing on Thursday. 

Maybe I'll  see you there.