As you can see...  

From the updated speaking schedule at right, I'm on the road for a while. I'll post when I can and when I learn something interesting. 

Speaking of which, what up with the root worm insecticide shortage? Could it be people are doubling down on 17-stacked trait-hybrids or (like us) are planting more "refuge" corn?

As for the reports this week, I'll let time render a verdict.

BTW, Mike Hoffman (the USFR Meteorologist) is beginning to eye the NWS long range forecast of a wet, cold, late spring. Doesn't mean squat now, but I'm not bailing on my sales yet.

So I'm working on my presentations...

For next fall and winter, and I searched for some professional advice.





[via ezra]

Tired of bullets?...

You're not alone.  There is a small but growing segment of teaching as well as speaking who find PowerPoint to be less the magic bullet (heh) it seemed to be a few years ago.

Teaching with PowerPoint has a different pace and structure than teaching with chalk or markers. It’s not just about overall fast vs. slow (though that’s part of it), but about when you go fast and when you go slow. When I use the board, I write down the major points, terms, definitions, etc. That forces me to slow down at exactly the moment when I’m making a big point and students should be attending closely. Once the critical information is on the board, I can elaborate, discuss with the class, ask questions, etc. while it hangs up there behind me for students to refer to. And since writing slows me down, I don’t give as much emphasis to relatively minor points — giving students an additional cue as to what’s more and less important. (“Don’t ignore this completely, but it’s not as central as what I said earlier.”) You can reproduce this kind of pacing and structure with PowerPoint, but in practice it’s difficult to do during a live performance in front of a classroom. You have to write your presentation with delivery (not just content) in mind. Otherwise it’s just too easy to blow through major and minor points at a constant pace.
Another point that she makes… I still use PowerPoint in my big introductory classes (though I make my own slides from scratch, use animation to help regulate my delivery, and try to avoid the mind-numbing bullety templates). I always have a few students ask me to post the notes before class. I don’t — I post them after class, but honestly, I have sometimes wondered if I’d be better off not posting them at all. Carolyn modestly writes “while [posting notes] is great for a lot of students, it doesn’t work for me…” but I actually think this describes most students. A lot of students misread their internal cues — if it feels like they are expending a lot of effort then they think they must be struggling with the material. Actually, though, if the professor is presenting challenging material, then you shouldn’t feel relaxed — relaxation is a sign that you’re probably thinking superficially or zoning out, not that you’ve quickly mastered the material.

I also found it impressive that Carolyn reached this conclusion on her own. Because frankly, it’s fundamentally very difficult to introspect into your own learning processes. A few years back, when I started moving away from PowerPoint, I got feedback on my student evaluations from people who wanted more PowerPoint. When I talked with students who felt that way, they thought they’d be able to focus more on the material if they didn’t have to bother taking notes. I realized that reflects a fundamental misunderstanding of what note-taking does for you. I’ve been getting less of that feedback lately — maybe because I’ve gotten better at using the board, or maybe because recent students have been around PowerPoint longer and see its limitations more clearly. [More]

Having spent a lot of time watching other PPT presentations (mostly mediocre, IMHO) I think a new balance needs to be found. Teachers and presenters are getting lazier and I think the audience is following their example.

At the very least, after you finish your PPT, halve the number of slides and bullets and you'll be about right, I've found.

What's the rush?...

We've decided to savor this wonderful harvest and set aside our anxiety about finishing.  With about 130 soggy acres to combine (and dry) we're hoping for some temps in the teens to help out.

(But no snow/sleet/freezing rain)

Posting is hard because of the Cargill schedule and my brain isn't working well, so I'm concentrating on just keeping up with TP and FJ columns, USFR, and speaking - since they generate income.

It's not as bad as the pledge breaks now roiling the PBS schedule, anyway.

I just might make it...

By "I", I mean "we", of course.  Even though I'll be flitting to Cargill meetings this week, our harvest might be done by the breakfast I'm speaking at for the Marketing Rally.

As you can guess, there is plenty of room for late-comers, so if you're done or getting close, restart your marketing for 2009 and 2010 (yup - I'm selling corn and beans both now).

Click here to register, and good luck this week.

Not only Christmas...

Is coming.  The traditional Fall Farmer Meeting Season is about to commence - ready or not!  As you can see from my calendar at left the other left, I may not be around for closure on this harvest.

As I struggle to concentrate on the financial outcome for this year and the prognosis for 2010, I have realized one thing: I am not thinking very clearly.  I think I have pre-PHSD (Post Harvest Stress Disorder).

I am NOT equating my mental issues to veterans coping with PTSD or making a lame comparison.  For several years, however, I have noted a pronounced change in my mental processes after harvest - and this harvest is one for the books.

One thing that seems to help me is re-establishing my bearings by conferring with other producers and experts. So despite the obvious difficulties, I am glad to be a part of the FJ Marketing Rally.

I would enjoy the chance to visit with you there.  This could become the premier marketing meeting of the season, and the first one could be the pattern.  Do the calculation and if you can see making it, it could be another reward for enduring 2009.

Besides - and you didn't hear it from me - the talk about a free-for-all Jello-wrestling tournament  between the market analysts may not be that far off.

[It will take some time getting that image out of your mind, won't it?]

Looking forward to tweckling....

I don't tweet.  I have introductory phrases longer than 140 characters. So this new challenge for public speakers such as yours truly made my presenter-blood run cold.

Tweckle (twek'ul) vt. to abuse a speaker only to Twitter followers in the audience while he/she is speaking.
Conference speakers beware: Twecklers are watching.
They're out for blood.
And you may be their next victim.
Once upon a time, conference goers could do little more than passively fork their cheesecake when a snooze-inducing keynote speaker took the podium. No longer. The microblogging service Twitter is changing a staple of academic life from a one-way presentation into a real-time conversation. Flub a talk badly enough and you now risk mobilizing a scrum of digital-spitball-slinging snark-masters. This is from a higher-education conference in Milwaukee:

• we need a tshirt, "I survived the keynote disaster of 09"
  

The Twitter "back channel" can be a powerful tool to quickly knit a gathering of strangers into an online community, a place where attendees at meetings broadcast bits of sessions, share extra information such as links, and arrange social events. But the same technology can also enable a "virtual lynching." That's the phrase one twitster used to describe what happened at last month's HighEdWeb Association conference, an event that has gone down in social-media history as perhaps the most brutal abuse of the back channel yet.
The setting was a midday keynote speech before some 400 college professionals in Milwaukee. The presenter was David Galper of the now-defunct online music service for college students, Ruckus Network. The Twitter reaction as he spoke included the T-shirt suggestion, and continued:

• it's awesome in the "I don't want to turn away from the accident because I might see a severed head" way
  
• Too bad they took my utensils away w/ my plate. I could have jammed the butter knife into my temple.

Perfect conditions propelled this Twitter torrent: a speaker who delivered what was apparently a technically flawed and topically dated talk to a crowd of Web experts who expected better. They reacted by flaying him with more than 500 tweets in one hour. The onslaught grew so large that it went viral—live. The conference became one of the most popular topics on Twitter, meaning strangers with no connection to the meeting gaped at Mr. Galper's humiliation when they logged onto their home pages. One consultant who coaches academics on public speaking now uses the disaster as a what-to-avoid case study. [More]

I could just raise my fee.

Or be more interesting.

Harvest update...

Thank goodness for a stretch of great weather and some corn reluctantly drying down to about 20% so we can bin it (nervously with air).  At the same time yields - and especially test weights - are in the toilet.  Very disappointing after some credible, but hardly outstanding early numbers.

You know the feeling: you don't want to open up the next field/number.

Thanks for your patience, and I hope your efforts are going better.  However, I flew from Las Vegas to ORD yesterday and saw NOT ONE combine going after we entered IL.

Memo to self: rethink scheduling speeches in November.

Thank God for a spouse and son who are going above and beyond in my absence.

BTW, if you would like to meet both Jan and Aaron (and offer condolences) he and I will be speaking at the TP Young Farmer Meeting in January.

Assuming we're done...

Update update:  I spoke today in LaGrange, IN and visited with some grain dealers/feed millers/farmers.  Yields seem to be pretty good, but within this week the mold problem has exploded with no place to go with badly damaged grain.  Mostly gibberella up here - but because of the mycotoxins more problematic than diplodia in my area.  Moisture is still 25-30%.

Help for your marketing...

And mine.  I will be working with the folks at Cargill in upcoming weeks with their Cargill Connection meetings.  And, no - I'm not giving marketing advice, other than some personal experiences and insights  - many of which I've shared here - about how my brain is sometimes the enemy of my wallet.  I will be moderating and trying to insure everyone has a chance to develop a better relationship with folks who buy a lotta grain.

I'm happy to be a part of these meetings for several reasons.  First, Cargill is my best customer, and I have had very good results working with them for decades.  Second, I will get the chance to visit with producers all over the Corn Belt.  Finally, after being in a dozen or so presentations, perhaps some of the advice might sink in and my marketing improve slightly.

At any rate, I'd love to hear what happening on your farm, so check out the dates/locations below, and call your Cargill rep.  As we move into an uncertain future, you may be surprised what tools to are available to help manage risk and reduce stress in your marketing.

Full information here.

Maybe it's me...

So I speak to IA Soybean Growers and when I arrive, a whopper hailstorm shows up too.  No kidding, the next day's drive home was stomach-churning.

Then today I speak to the Farm World Expo.

And a nasty wave of storms clobbers the area.

Look out, Columbus.

Intelligence from Canada...

[Insert your joke here].

I spoke today to a remarkable group of Canadian producers at a ski resort near Calgary.  It was 8°. (You do the math.) 

Some impressions:

• Saskatchewan is about as far from the perils of the global recession as The Shire is from Mt. Doom. Seriously, the stunning change of political power in 2007 has unleashed a torrent of entrepreneurial output and is propelling the province forward like a miniature China.
• Of course, oil, uranium and potash revenues don't really hurt either. Also, even Canadians admit potash prices are way outta line.
  
• I'm pretty sure these guys could hand us our heads as technology users if they only had a few more years of global warming and the Canadian Wheat Board disappeared.  I was tres impressed with the sessions I sat through.
• I drove to the Kananaskis resort area in the rain, but coming back today, it was one of the most dazzling mountain vistas this flatlander has ever beheld.
• I'm going to get some of the files from the presentations I saw.  The one on fertilizer was truly impressive with one chart that really captures this bizarre market. (Pure tease)
  
• As the new administration works to undo years of unproductive socialist programs they are racking up impressive economic gains that will be harder to sustain long-term, I think.
• Canada's livestock industry is already hurting - especially hogs. Any hint of more protectionism from the US (and I think it's coming) will not be good news for this cattle-intense province.
• I now know more about Falling Numbers than I want to.
  

No pictures, but I'm getting a new Blackberry in August. (It's amazing how our lives revolve around cell-phone contracts.)

Watt gratitude...

I drove down to Jonesboro, AR to speak at the Arkansas State University Agribusiness Conference yesterday. The last two hours were bouts of heavy rain and mile after mile after mile of downed powerlines and utility crews working in abysmal conditions.

At the reception last night local residents were telling me entire towns were still without power from the ice storm two weeks ago, and some customers don't expect service restored until March.

The whole are looks like it has been badly mowed with a giant BushHog set about 15' high.

When you flip the light switch on this morning, say a little thank you. And if you can spare a thought and prayer for these folks, it would be appreciated.

I will be at the Louisville Farm Machinery Show tomorrow taping USFR in the afternoon.  Stop by and say hi!

They shoot speakers, don't they?...

Today I had the particular pleasure of speaking to the ND Commodity meeting in Bismarck.  Lord knows, I barely got here.  But the discussion and surprising news were well worth it.

Except for one thing.  Our four-year old grandson has become an agent of a biological warfare laboratory: preschool.  He has suffered and shared several viruses and maladies over the past few months, and so when I began to speak this morning I knew my throat was doomed.

I was right. 

Still things from other speakers that made me take notice.

• The US used less electrical power in the last year than the year before - for the first time in history.  Don't tell me there is no demand curve.
• Fertilizer prices have broken hard here at least.  MAP ~ $600; NH3 ~$600; urea down even more (proportionally)  - I can't remember the number.  No words on K.  Don't tell me there is no demand curve.
  
• The Bakken oil field will change ND forever, and it's just now beginning to be seen.

 Finally, this nugget: fat people now outnumber the starving.  Yay?

Man, I'm going to bed.  I speak at the IA FB meeting on Thursday.

I hope.

No doubt about it...

I gotta raise my speaking fees.

Commodity Classic final thoughts...

I drove home this morning through TN and KY and in the bright sunshine and wheat fields looking slightly greener, I experienced my first spring urgings. Of course, I am reminded the #1 item on my "Too due" list is the Hippo-Tillage Oath:

First, do no compaction.

The roads are at their marshmallow softest. More winter undoubtedly awaits and I need to lose 10 pounds before my summer clothes will fit painlessly. Still, the days are getting longer.

More trivia from Nashville:

• The freebies were most excellent this year. My absolute favorite - other than the Asgrow Pickup I was ineligible to enter for - was the YieldGuard VT Triple remote weather station. You had to get a high score on a Whack-a-mole game to win one, but I faked an old Spanish-American War injury, and they gave me one to get rid of me. Without a doubt, between free food and gadgets (GPS units, etc) this was by far the most lavish handout bonanza I've ever been to.
  
• Charlie Cook was superb, although I had forgotten as emcee about the delay on satellite transmissions. The most amazing thing he said was he was just as flabbergasted by the Obama and McCain surprises as we were. He thinks we are in the midst of a unique event in history. Oh yeah, you will soon be able to subscribe to his newsletter with a credit card. Charlie told more in 20 minutes about this election that you could get in 20 hours of reading.
• Had a chance to fill in some of the blank that is our new Secretary of Ag. I dunno - about all I can say is there was no hint of budging on the administration positions in that speech.
• Kudos to the wheat growers and the cinnamon rolls. Nature's most perfect food. I had 14. And somebody was giving away ice cream that looked like dry cottage cheese. Big favorite!
• We had 'em jammed in like a revival meeting at the USFR Round Table taping. I couldn't stay but reportedly no animals were harmed.
• While there were big crowds it wasn't hard to get to an expert within minutes, especially the machinery dudes. The access to people-who-know and better yet can let slip hints about tomorrow was worth the trip alone.
• Signup for the Corn College was brisk. I was informed by my boss I would be speaking at both sessions. Also we'll be taping round tables for USFR there as well. But mostly it will be The Ken Ferrie Show.
• There was less "How long's it gonna last?" and more "How do we make the most of right now?" Also, serious buzz about bringing Jr. back and the Changing of the Guard. A few were beginning to to see an estate tax train wreck about to occur.
• Rising protectionism is not getting the alarm it should, except for the wheat growers. This is really short-term thinking. Ag should be on the forefront defending NAFTA and rational immigration policy despite the political flack this will cause, IMHO.
• Mike Rayburn, the guitarist who performed at the General Session killed! I did not know you could even do things like that with a guitar - let alone that fast. Had a few jokes worth stealing as well. Not that I would do that, of course. Dow AgroSciences outdid themselves booking him. [Look - I know it's a blatant plug, but Dow has been making the General Session better for all of us for many years and this producer is grateful.]
  
• I had about 10 guys come up and tell me their wives thought my woodworking article was really funny. The poor schmucks didn't realize the ladies were laughing at them as well.

A good time was had by all. And up until the time I left, no indictments had been issued.

Stuff I heard...

Over the roar at the Trade Show at the Commodity Classic. Whoa - they'll have to start serving decaf to this crowd before it gets untidy. I've been to several hundred Commodity Classics and this is the rowdiest by far.

Could it be the continuing rally made possible by yours truly?

Anyhoo, things I took aboard.

• Some ground within a hundred miles of me sold for $8800. That's for every single acre.
• I'm not quite the fool I thought I was for renegotiating my contracts this year for what seemed like astronomical rents at the time.
• Some students at UM are live blogging the Classic. Find Whitney's blog here.

• No, I don't know if she has a boyfriend. I'm just glad we had sons, because I'm pretty sure this type of offspring would be beyond my management expertise.
• I talked with the head of global commerce for Monsanto. Halfway through our discussion it hit me how much both of us has at risk from the rising tide of protectionism. I'll post more about this later, but I'm dismayed by sentiments from both sides of the aisle about NAFTA and free trade in general.
• This is the largest Classic ever, which is amazing since Las Vegas seems to bring out the biggest crowds.
• I saw my sprayer. I just traded for the exact sprayer sitting on the display floor. And the pathetic reason why I traded a 2005 model with 207 hours and no problems? To get a seat in the cab for my grandson, now that he is back on the farm. Sometimes you have to know what values to put on things.
  

• 

• I heard three stories about small elevators on the brink of something not very good. We could be heading for a straight cash market for many grain originators.
• I really think producers are missing something important (and I don't mean me) when they don't take the chance to attend meetings like this. I learn more about the state of our business sector in two days here than two weeks at the computer.
  

More later. I think I heard a wine cork popped.

Hey - it's an agricultural product. In fact, one of our major ag exports.

Off to the Classic!...

I'm leaving at 0h-dark-thirty tomorrow to attend the Commodity Classic and perform my favorite role: emcee the General Session. While we have Big Names in attendance - political analyst Charlie Cook and brand-new Secretary of Agriculture Ed Shafer - I frankly am more interested in what the three commodity presidents will say when we talk together.

We're all going where no farmer has gone before and I get most of my great ideas from colleagues like them.

Hope I see you there. If not, I'll be blogging about what happens as I can.

Maybe I'm wrong...

Hardly a news flash, huh? When I was in Canada I spoke with some young ag communications students who had attended my presentation. One of them said my presentation was inspirational. My reaction was close to offense, although I'm pretty sure she saw it as an attempt at least at modesty.

I have never wanted to be lumped into that category, and frankly find the motivation industry to be pretty dang shallow. I feel they manipulate people emotionally (which I despise), and yet find myself reminded constantly in my research how important it is to respect our "old" brain - which is basically our emotional center.

I hope to do this in a way that at least has some respectable and defensible hard data, preferably with pie charts and linear regression. But the deeper we probe into how we decide and choose to act, into how we plan and the effect of those plans, and especially into how important it is to connect with those around in our lives and our value chain, the less goofy some of these guys sound.

I'm not talking about the speaker-circuit fire-walkers or goopy self-help guru/authors, but people who can touch our emotions in a delicate and honest manner to help us change our lives for the better.

So when a friend sent me this link, I checked it out and decided to post it. Make of it what you will, but it can't offend or diminish your life, I'm sure. And if you decide I'm getting old and sloppily sentimental, I think I'm OK with that too. This won't happen very often.



[Thanks, Dave]

It used to be such a nice country...

I tried to get into Canada today to speak to the Innovative Farmers Association of Ontario. I remembered to bring my passport. But when I got to the border dude the conversation went something like this:
Why are you coming to Canada?
To speak at a meeting in London.
What kind of meeting?
Farmers.
What about?
About the boom in grain farming and what it might mean for the future?
Are you being paid?
Yes.
How much?
Excuse me?
How much are you being paid?
Umm, $XXX
One moment.
(Closes the window)
(Opens window)
Take this ticket and go talk to immigration (gives directions)

In the immigration office:
Why are you speaking to Canadian farmers?
They invited me. They watch US Farm Report and read my blog, I think.
Take a seat, we'll call you after some checking.

(About 5 minutes later)
You can go. Give this paper to the officer at your car.

Weird, no? According to my hosts, the Canadian government doesn't want "furriners" coming into do jobs Canadians could be doing.

Their suggested "right answer": I'm going to look at a planter.

No, I'm not making this up.

ORD 2, JWP 1 - The battle continues...

Just like the Democratic primary, O'Hare and I fought to a draw yesterday coming home from Colorado. I got to Chicago two hours late and mushed through the snow to arrive 2 minutes before midnight.

Anyhoo - thanks for a great time at the High Plains No Till Conference! Some have asked for the file for my presentation Wednesday - The Prediction Problem: Why the future isn't what it used to be.

Find it here.