Lucky us...

While we're whining about this bitter, and unending winter, the rest of the world is sweating it out.

We seem to be a smidgen self-centered, no?

Who's the umpire, here?...  

The news this morning:

Today marks a milestone in recent U.S. tornado history that we like: the longest stretch of days without a tornado death.
January 9, 2012 marks a milestone in recent U.S. tornado history that we like: the longest stretch of days without a tornado death. It will go down in recorded history as the longest streak with no tornado deaths: 197 days.  [More]

But it only seems like last month when...

The tornadoes on Christmas Day marked an end-of-year rally in the number of twisters to strike the U.S., and ended the third-longest streak of days between deadly tornadoes, at 165. After a record tornado season in 2011, when 1,692 tornadoes left 553 dead and thousands more injured, 2012 has set records for the fewest tornadoes, with just 886 observed through Nov. 30. The month of July 2012, for example, set a record for the fewest tornadoes on record for that month since modern records began in 1954. [More] 

Huh?

How hot was it?...  

 By now you've heard about the US temperature record in 2012.  My favorite graph:

[Source]

Meanwhile, Down Under it's been so hot, they are adding new colors to the maps.

Australia's "dome of heat" has become so intense that the temperatures are rising off the charts – literally.

"The air mass over the inland is still heating up - it hasn't peaked"

The Bureau of Meteorology's interactive weather forecasting chart has added new colours – deep purple and pink – to extend its previous temperature range that had been capped at 50 degrees.

[More]

It's hard to believe after all the stories Dad told about '34 and '36, I've been through two hotter years. Of course, a brutal heat wave in July is one thing - 80's in March and December is quite another.

Still the one...  

After 10 months of 2012, we've kinda lost track of how honkin' hot this year has been.  A little refresher:

 [Click to enlarge][Source]

Unless something bizarre happens soon, 2012 is truly going to stand out from the crowd.

The best drought graphic yet...  

From the NYT. For librul MSM, they do a decent job on stuff like this.

[Click to enlarge]

[Wait -the dates didn't copy. So lower right is 1896. Upper left is 2012. Read left-to-right in each row]

I think I see the problem...  

Our production headache this year in one chart.

Make your own here.

Whee.

How unusual was February?...  

Cool new site to check extreme weather records.

 

First!...  

So we decided to mow the lawn today. 

I'll start on the pool tomorrow...

Keep an eye on Mike Hoffman* next week on USFR. He's out on a limb about an abrupt dive into deep winter next week, but I'm not so sure (at least for us).

If he's wrong, I'll try not to mention it...

*Seriously, this guy has made me a lot of money when deciding whether to plant or let stuff field dry, etc.

15 Minutes of Fame Winter...  

My snow shovel is rusting out this "winter". This is surprising because it's plastic. But it doesn't look like I'll need it soon.

[Click to embiggen]

[Source]

Accuweather is the longest range forecast I check routinely along with Intellicast, and NWS. The last is fun because we are only 2 miles from IN, and the forecast for Dana, IN next door can often be remarkably different.

Meanwhile we ponder how much we want to tear up our lane hauling corn on unfrozen gravel.

On a side note, I asked some friends if a really warm March, which produced warm, dry soils by say, the 20th would induce them to put seeds in the ground. This would be about 10 days earlier than most of us have traditionally felt comfortable with. All said yes, since their earliest corn had been by far the best the last 4-5 years.

At least one part of our brains are coping with climate change, it seems. Maybe that's the way it will work out - we'll make adaptations all the time we proclaim AGW to be nonsense.

Button down the hatches...  

Alaska is about to be hit by a super-storm.

A ferocious, dangerous storm in the north Pacific is on a collision course with the west coast of Alaska. Referred to as the “Bering Sea Superstorm” by the National Weather Service Office in Fairbanks (NWS), damaging winds, severe beach erosion and major coastal flooding are expected. In some locations, heavy snow and blizzard conditions are also forecast.
“This will be one of the most severe Bering Sea storms on record,” the NWS wrote today.
The storm is predicted to deepen at an incredible rate, with its central pressure crashing from 973 mb this morning to 945-950 mb tonight.
“This storm has the potential to produce widespread damage,” the NWS in Fairbanks said.
Sustained winds of 80 mph (with gusts to 90 mph in some locations) may impact an area the size of Colorado with offshore waves to more than 40 feet according to the NWS Facebook page. A storm surge of 8 to 10 feet is predicted along the coast. The combination of wind, waves, and high sea levels will create many hazards as described by the NWS in a Special Weather Statement:
THE HIGH SEA LEVELS COMBINED WITH HIGH WAVES WILL PRODUCE SEVERE BEACH EROSION AND MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SHORES OF NORTON SOUND AND ALONG THE BERING STRAIT COAST. HIGH WATER LEVELS WILL PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF NORTON SOUND. STRONG WINDS AND WAVE ACTION MAY PUSH ICE IN NORTON BAY ON SHORE. [More]

Double Yikes!

I suspect this is another example of storm intensification due to global warming. I cannot prove this, I admit. But I'm not alone in thinking storms could become more powerful for this reason

Kerry Emanuel, the lead author of the new study, wrote a paper in 2005 reporting an apparent link between a warming climate and an increase in hurricane intensity. That paper attracted worldwide attention because it was published in Nature just three weeks before Hurricane Katrina slammed into New Orleans.
Emanuel, a professor of atmospheric science in MIT's Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, says the new research provides an independent validation of the earlier results, using a completely different approach. The paper was co-authored by postdoctoral fellow Ragoth Sundararajan and graduate student John Williams and recently appeared in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.
While the earlier study was based entirely on historical records of past hurricanes, showing nearly a doubling in the intensity of Atlantic storms over the last 30 years, the new work is purely theoretical. It made use of a new technique to add finer-scale detail to computer simulations called Global Circulation Models, which are the basis for most projections of future climate change.
"It strongly confirms, independently, the results in the Nature paper," Emanuel said. "This is a completely independent analysis and comes up with very consistent results."
Worldwide, both methods show an increase in the intensity and duration of tropical cyclones, the generic name for what are known as hurricanes in the North Atlantic. But the new work shows no clear change in the overall numbers of such storms when run on future climates predicted using global climate models. [More]

The combination of more energy from hotter air and more water vapor leads me to prepare for a wider range of weather possibilities. Luckily, I'm not quite as close to an ocean or Arctic air as those guys hunkering down in AK.

The new normal...  

Every now and then we farmers debate whether prices or yields have plateaued to a "new normal". We are seldom correct. But there is an agency who can declare what normal is.

Normals serve as a 30 year baseline average of important climate variables that are used to understand average climate conditions at any location and serve as a consistent point of reference. The new normals update the 30-year averages of climatological variables, including average temperature and precipitation for more than 7,500 locations across the United States. This once-a-decade update will replace the current 1971–2000 normals.
In the continental United States, every state’s annual maximum and minimum temperature increased on average. “The climate of the 2000s is about 1.5 degree F warmer than the 1970s, so we would expect the updated 30-year normals to be warmer,” said Thomas R. Karl, L.H.D., NCDC director.
Using standards established by the World Meteorological Organization, the 30-year normals are used to compare current climate conditions with recent history. Local weathercasters traditionally use normals for comparisons with the day’s weather conditions.
In addition to their application in the weather sector, normals are used extensively by electric and gas companies for short- and long-term energy use projections. NOAA’s normals are also used by some states as the standard benchmark by which they determine the statewide rate that utilities are allowed to charge their customers.
The agricultural sector also heavily depends on normals. Farmers rely on normals to help make decisions on both crop selection and planting times. Agribusinesses use normals to monitor “departures from normal conditions” throughout the growing season and to assess past and current crop yields. [More]

This change will ripple subtly through official benchmarks that touch our lives every day - from crop insurance actuarial calculations to electricity prices.

As I have said, many times before, you can treat climate change as a political issue or an economic/production problem. We don't have to agree. We all get to make our own bets.

This just in...  

From our correspondent in PA:

Demand rationing may have occurred in an unexpected manner (can you say black swan event?) here in Lancaster County. Friday's record heat of 103, not since 1966, was absolutely devastating to poultry and hog facilities. Friday evening saw dump trailers showing up at layer complexes to handle the mortality a tractor trailer load at a time. One of our son's works packing eggs, and hours needed to pack eggs are down 25%. If eggs are not there, the hens are not eating because they are not there. Fire companies were out Friday afternoon wetting down the roofs of livestock buildings to lower inside temps. I understand second handed that mortality was very high in sow units. If sows indeed are lost, again, not a mouth to feed, but also their offspring are not going to need that 10 bushels of corn each.

Meanwhile, O'Hare set a rain record.

It’s officially the rainiest day on record in Chicago since 1871, according to the National Weather Service.

As of 10:30 a.m., 6.86 inches of rain had fallen since midnight, according to NWS Meteorologist Richard Castro.

“This is the rainiest calendar day already,’’ Castro said. “It’s an incredible amount of rain.’’

Nearly all of it pelted the area between the hours of 1 a.m. and 7 a.m., when 6.85 inches fell at O’Hare – the most since officials began keeping records in 1871.

The prior record was the 6.64 inches that fell on Sept. 13, 2008, Castro said.

In the 24-hour period that ended at 7 a.m. Saturday, 8.20 inches of rain had been recorded at O’Hare, according to the weather service. [More]

Four years do not climate change prove, I freely admit. But how many years of below-trendline yields, deluges and droughts will make critics even pause to consider?

I'm guessing 7. (It's very biblical).

It went thatta-way...

A tornado track from space.

[Source]

The river will win...

That's my bet, anyhoo. Missouri ag is incensed at the idea of leaving the blown Bird's-Point levees open.

Three Southern Illinois University professors have written a letter to President Obama asking him to leave the Birds Point Levee breach open, turning 130,000 acres of productive farmland into a permanent wasteland, er, wetland.In my view, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers should rebuild the Birds Point levee if only to spite these three self-important individuals, who either don’t know, or don’t care, that they are rubbing salt in a very fresh wound and offending every hard-working farmer in America.Blake Hurst, president of the Missouri Farm Bureau Federation had this to say about the trio of egotists. “Those of us who remember the great flood of 1993 can write the script from here; environmental groups will use Mississippi County’s misfortune to attempt a land grab of massive proportions. “The professors, without bothering to provide any evidence, claim that 200 square miles of fertile farmland would better serve mankind as a swamp, instead of producing food the world so desperately needs. I’m not sure how big the ‘I Miss Malaria Caucus’ is, but it’s imperative we drown this foolish idea in its infancy. The levees must be repaired as soon as it dries enough for dirt to be moved.”Hurst noted that professors “are not only deluded, but self serving as well. The lack of concern they show for the families affected by the flood is breathtaking, the arrogance shown by their cavalier disregard for the efforts of generations of farmers is shocking. People are suffering, and the best that the academics can do is to propose a plan that will make the suffering permanent.”Hurst says the U.S. government “has a moral obligation to help those in the path of this man-made flood. The levees must be repaired, the ground must be restored, the roads, bridges, and homes replaced. [More]

The problem here is arrogance all right, but it's spread pretty evenly around. "Moral obligation"? This is the heady language of entrenched entitlement. It certainly captures the expectations from government

of many farmers, but whence does this "right" arise?

Let me see.  Public money pays for the levees, subsidizes the crops, and then covers the insurance claims. Is there no amount of dollars that would be undeserved? I doubt Blake would see it that way.

But the real problem is simply being ignored: the water's gotta go somewhere.

But the problem is one no one should be surprised about, experts said, and there is no easy solution.The leveesThe very things that protected Vidalia and thousands of other river residents up and down the Mississippi last month — levees — are part of the problem, according to Karen O’Neill, associate professor in the human ecology department at Rutgers University and author of a book focused on flood control, “Rivers by Design.”“The question is always ‘Where can the water go?’” O’Neill said.If levees force rising waters into a smaller area, she said, the water rises only within that area.“At some point, it’s just a question of volume,” O’Neill said. “Levees closer to the river give the river less room to spread at flood time.”Historically, she said, people built their houses on relatively higher land and planted crops in the low areas, taking the risk that those areas would be flooded at times whether they were protected by the levee or not.Now, though, as the design of levees becomes more advanced, O’Neill said, there’s a temptation to build them closer to the river to protect farmlands.“Private individuals and county and state government cut off some of the historic natural outlets, (as well),” she said. “The floodways that have been built since then do not replace the functions of these outlets.”Franklin Heitmuller, an assistant professor in the Department of Geography and Geology at the University of Southern Mississippi said, too, that levees are part of the problem.“The bad comes with the good,” he said.“Flood-control levees are absolutely critical in this day and time to protect lives, communities and properties,” he said. “If (the levees) were absent — or poorly built — we would have a big mess on our hands.”However, Heitmuller said, unintended problems arise.“At locations where flood-control levees reduce the area (for floodwater), the floodplain can build up more rapidly than would otherwise be expected if floodwaters and sediment were distributed across a larger area,” he said. [More]

Finally, let's submit that demand for farm output to  a little economic cost-benefit analysis. What if the public is paying more to serve farmers than they get back in commodities? And let me guess - these farmers are also outraged at the size of the federal debt and deficit.

I suspect it will take a few more outsized floods from now familiar heavy rain events for this new axiom to be accepted by bottom-land farmers. With the riverbed now above the surrounding cropland in many areas, artificial efforts to contain it simply raise the potential for ever more catastrophic failures.

Given a close race in some MO Congressional seat, the levees will likely get rebuilt. But my money is on the frequency of these events increasing dramatically. And the flooding to be worse as a result of a narrow view of what is "moral".

Something's fishy...

If not actually rotten in the state of Denmark.  I been spending some time with friends from DK over the last few days (and trying to get planted of course), and their mood was uncharacteristically downbeat.

DK farmland prices are trending down. Despite record grain prices, their heavy dependence on livestock on their smaller farms has made the last few years very difficult. In fact, they are to the point of liquidation to stop the bleeding. This in a country that has had all the pigs the law will allow for years.

While U of I economists tsk-tsk the use of the term "demand destruction", that is sure what it looks like to me. We are at the least shifting the demand curve as we lose entire farms of corn eaters.

Meanwhile, the crop in Europe is not good. Winter barley in France is down ~20%, German grains are poor as well, and dry weather continues.

Europe’s wheat crop, making up a fifth of global output, is under threat in the U.K., France and Germany from the driest growing conditions in at least 36 years.France’s soft-wheat crop, the European Union’s largest, will drop 12 percent, and German output will slide 7.2 percent, local forecasters said today. Wheat jumped 4.5 percent to the highest level since Feb. 14.Smaller-than-expected harvests may boost wheat prices that already rose 59 percent in a year after crops were hurt in the last growing season by floods in Canada and drought in Russia. This year, China is contending with drought while U.S. farmers are facing dry weather in some areas and too much rain in others. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is forecasting a second consecutive annual decline in global stockpiles.“Given the tight levels of stocks for grains and oilseeds we need everything to go right,” Luke Chandler, global head of agricultural-commodity research at Rabobank in London, said in a phone interview. “Downward revisions such as in Europe have the potential to set us on another bull market over the summer.”French soft-wheat production will slide to 31.65 million metric tons, the least in four years, from 35.7 million tons last year, as drought slashes yields to the lowest in at least 16 years, Agritel, a Paris-based farm adviser, said today. [More]

I think there is a partial inability in the minds of American farmers to entertain the fact the world's growers cannot simply increase production at will, and that a massive shortfall is truly possible. In fact, I think it is unfolding as we speak. One more flood somewhere in the US, another month of drought in the EU/China or a monsoon failure in India and the supply demand curves will have trouble meeting, or at least intersecting anywhere congenial.

On a side note, my driving through central and northern IL was not pretty. Waaaay too much water, and mucho beans to plant.

After 12 hours...

Our power came back on. I wept like Michael Landon.

But other than that, the Big Storm has not been as advertised right here, and I think I know why.

[More] [Click to embiggen]

Uh-oh...

Just had a 5 second power interruption. Normally, if they power drops for more than 2 seconds it means we're on our own, but maybe we just dodged a bullet.

The forecast for Edgar County is not a happy one, however. We have about 1/2" ice on the ground and 1/4" on the trees.

Our main computer is on an emergency bus powered by our automatic generator (possibly the best $3500 I have ever spent) so I'll probably keep posting for something to do.  But this could be a bad one for folks in my area. Aaron and I were speculating about trying to move snow with ice under the drifts.

Be careful out there.

Can't buy a break...

Jeez - the Australians in Queensland can't get seem to find the end of the tunnel.  Or storm.

Still cleaning up from devastating floods that killed some 32 people, residents along a wide swath of Queensland’s north coast are now being told to brace themselves for what may become the largest cyclone the “sunshine state” has ever faced.
Cyclone Yasi is expected to slam into the Queensland coast around 1 a.m. Thursday local time, packing winds of more than 250 k.p.h. (155 m.p.h.). This puts it on a par with the force of Hurricane Katrina, which devastated New Orleans in 2005 and clocked winds of 175 m.p.h., before weakening as it neared the coast.
...
Yasi is also threatening around a third of Queensland’s sugar cane crop. Australia is the third largest sugar exporter in the world and Queensland grows more than 90 percent of the country’s sugar cane. The state’s banana crop, another major earner, is also expected to be severely impacted. This latest hit comes as Queenslanders clean up from floods that have caused some $5.6 billion in damage. [More]

For me there is something terribly wrong about center pivot fields underwater.

 

OK. Now imagine you are a Chinese government official and you source food supplies for your increasingly wealthy and expectant citizens. One of your best sources can't get out from under clouds (Australia) , another came up short on their corn crop (US) and the rest are fighting La Nina-related production problems.

Now you turn on TV and see popular uprisings triggered in large part by people who want cheaper and better food, and expect their government to make it happen.

I would do three things:

1. Root for appreciation in the value of the yuan to boost my buying power overseas.
2. Keep my domestic inventory numbers very secret (assuming I even believe them).
3. Buy at any price to get what is needed. Those dollars stacked up in Beijing won't be getting stronger anytime soon anyway.

Sentences that catch your attention...

Stuff like this article talking about natural gas futures.

“The first two weeks of January, you’re going to see the market turn around from December cold,” said Dave Melita, president and chief meteorologist of Melita Weather Associates in Durango, Colorado. “The snow cover will be melting fast. It will be 20 degrees above average on some days.”
Temperatures in Chicago will dip to a low of 19 degrees Fahrenheit (7 Celsius) on Jan. 1, 2 degrees above normal and 14 degrees higher than a year earlier, according to AccuWeather Inc. in State College, Pennsylvania. New York will fall to 38 degrees, 10 above average. About 52 percent of U.S. households use natural gas for heat.
Natural gas for January delivery advanced 11.8 cents, or 2.9 percent, to $4.23 per million British thermal units at 12:29 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract expires today. Gas for February delivery rose 13 cents to $4.285. Heating demand drove gas prices above $6 last January.
‘Blowtorch Hot’
Higher-than-average temperatures will persist throughout the Midwest and eastern U.S., with potential in February for “blowtorch hot” weather compared with seasonal norms, Melita said.
The Energy Department reported last week that inventories declined by 184 billion cubic feet in the week ended Dec. 17 to 3.368 trillion cubic feet. Stockpiles reached a record 3.84 trillion the week ended Nov. 5.
Gas stockpiles will total 1.833 trillion cubic feet at the end of the winter heating season in March, about 171 billion cubic feet higher than at the end of March 2010, the Energy Department said Dec. 7 in its Short-Term Energy Outlook.
U.S. natural gas production may reach a record high of 62.09 billion cubic feet a day this year, the department said.
“It’s a pretty bearish picture weather wise, and we’re really not seeing a decline in production,” said Hamza Khan, an analyst with the Schork Group Inc., a consulting company in Villanova, Pennsylvania.[More] [My bold]

I tend to take these comments with some gravity as these guys are betting real margin money on NG which is very sensitive to weather.

And speaking of margin calls, I'm guessing more than a few grain merchandisers are looking at a similar working capital Money Pit they barely escaped two years ago. I've heard far-forward contracts are already being curtailed and also that few grain buyers really took serious steps to off-load their margin risk with swaps or similar financial devices.

Which means a bullish surprise in the January report - like lower final production and/or relentless demand - could close up the shops again except for nearby delivery.

And I don't doubt more than few farmers are shuffling cash to cover positions taken earlier.

Another fiasco in the grain marketing system would not engender warm feelings of confidence in our system, IMHO.

Remember the Bermuda high?...

As we rip bone-dry fields and neighbors pause to debate applying NH3, the faint memory of drought and the mysterious "Bermuda high" came tumbling back into my thoughts.  It could be worrying about our well here at house helped trigger this speculation.

Anyhoo, this may be just another aspect of climate change from global warming that was predicted by ag climatologists.

A new study by a Duke University-led team of climate scientists suggests that global warming is the main cause of a significant intensification in the North Atlantic Subtropical High (NASH) that in recent decades has more than doubled the frequency of abnormally wet or dry summer weather in the southeastern United States. 
 

The NASH, commonly referred to as the Bermuda High, is an area of high pressure that forms each summer near Bermuda, where its powerful surface center helps steer Atlantic hurricanes and plays a major role in shaping weather in the eastern United States, Western Europe and northwestern Africa.
By analyzing six decades of U.S. and European weather and climate data, the Duke-led team found that the center of the NASH intensified by 0.9 geopotential meters a decade on average from 1948 to 2007.  (Geopotential meters are used to measure how high above sea level a pressure system extends; the greater the height, the greater the intensity.)
The team’s analysis found that as the NASH intensified, its area enlarged, bringing the high’s weather-making western ridge closer to the continental United States by 1.22 longitudinal degrees a decade.
“This is not a natural variation like El Nino,” says lead author Wenhong Li, assistant professor of earth and ocean sciences at Duke University’s Nicholas School of the Environment.   “We thoroughly investigated possible natural causes, including the Atlantic Multivariate Oscillation (AMO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), which may affect highs, but found no links.
“Our analysis strongly suggests that the changes in the NASH are mainly due to anthropogenic warming,” she says. [More]

It is back-to-back episodes of heavy rain and drought that has me most concerned about how to prepare our farm. To be sure we have been tiling like crazy (BTW - plastic tile is hard to get around here), but the on-off nature of rain the last 3 years is growing tiresome.

Frankly, I think it will continue to be a massive marketing headache for seed and biotech companies, as the traits don't sem to add much value if the borers are extinct and the rootworms drown.All the drought-tolerance in the world won't help a plant underwater during May and June. DAMHIKT.

Luckily, we're soon to be legislatively freed from any climate change problem. But just in case, that doesn't work, I think I'll have a backup plan.

[Update: for help with the idea of "geopotential meters" this is the best I could do. And I'm still pretty vague.]