Bleats from the right...

Now that the Doha Round has been pronounced "pretty deceased" by experts, solemn tut-tuts are issuing from so-called conservative organizations.

This really gripes my gourd.

The Doha Round represented a once-in-a-lIfetime chance to rationalize our farm program and blame it on foreigners. Not to mention maybe helping those industries doing the heavy lifting in our ecomony like software, insurance, financial services, etc. But the right wing of American politics has rolled over for the farm lobby to get any other socially conservative vote they could think of - abortion, gay marriage, gay abortions, gay flag-burning gun-banning abortion, etc. To pretend they truly gave a hoot about de-socializing agriculture is despicable desembling. A sample of the vebiage:

Just to put this in perspective, the non-farming sectors of the U.S. economy make up between 80 to 90 percent of the GDP. Yet through its actions, the U.S. government is saying that it is willing to forgo new market openings for its most productive sectors so that wealthy landowners can continue to receive lots of money not to farm. [More]

So if the trade talk failure suddenly comes home to roost as deflated portfolios of companies whose intellectual property rights are ignored or trust funds shrunken by a debilitated dollar, you won't hear me sympathizing.

The sanctimonious right could have put their votes where their rhetoric was, but farmers weren't important enough to protect their constitutional rights to equal treatment under the law. What the conservatives railed about welfare - that it degraded the recipient and made them clients of the state - was ignored for the farm sector.

It was like giving candy to babies.

Thanks for nothing, conservatives.

Theoretically, I could live to 154...

If light drinking is good for you then if my calculations are right...

Deep in the (no)rainforest...

Brazil seems to have fallen off the radar for most farmers. Thanks to ethanol, we'll all be growing a few beans just for comic relief.

Meanwhile our neighbors down south have a drought problem of their own - the rainforest isn't getting any rain.

The consequences would be truly awesome. The wet Amazon, the planet's greatest celebration of life, would turn to dry savannah at best, desert at worst. This would cause much of the world - including Europe - to become hotter and drier, making this sweltering summer a mild foretaste of what is to come. In the longer term, it could make global warming spiral out of control, eventually making the world uninhabitable.

Since last year the Amazonian jungle has been starved for rain. While ecologists can be given to pretty melodramatic prose this could be an area to watch. Ongoing research into SA water balance may also help us understand what is going on.

Other hearts in other lands*...

While I have been trying to figure out how much damage the Doha Demise will cause, others are celebrating. Perhaps for good reason.

What makes Indian agriculture significantly different from the industrial agriculture in America and European Union (and for that matter in other OECD countries) is that Indian agriculture is diverse and based on available biodiversity wealth. India grows 260 crops every year whereas Europe and America cannot count more than 30 crops, of which 10 crops or so are commercially important. In India, each of the 260 crops is linked to millions of livelihoods.

And yet, the international magazine The Economist (July 8, 2006) wrote: "India is more worried about upsetting subsistence farmers than it is excited by the prize of freer trade in the services that now matter so much to its economy". What it fails to tell us is that the gains in services only provides employment to less than 1.5 million people whereas 650 [million]people are directly dependent upon agriculture and another 200 million are indirectly banking upon farming for survival. Moreover, the gains in services would have happened in any case with or without WTO since the service sector required cheaper manpower.

The writer is not completely wrong. Nor should we continue to write off this many people as non-players. As China and India outgrow and "out-educate" the West, our inability to look beyond the next ten minutes may be remembered as a foolish choice.

Let's start with U.S. and European agricultural subsidies, a key target for the Doha negotiators. Are those subsidies too big? Certainly. Is the Doha Round the right forum for lowering them? Probably not. Here's why: The people who suffer the most from those subsidies are the taxpayers of the U.S. and Europe, who pay billions of dollars a year to politically well-connected farmers in their own countries. If voters haven't managed to get rid of those subsidies in their own countries, it's difficult to see how foreign diplomats are going to have any luck. And, in fact, they haven't.

Too many of us were looking for Doha to do the dirty work of deregulating agriculture and restoring adult status to farmers in the EU and US.

Looks like we'll have to do it the harder way.

* Finlandia by Jon Sibelius

Maybe genetic modifiction has gotten out of hand...





[More]

[via Boingboing]

Art or something like it...

Somewhere taxpayers paid for these statues.



The Man Who Measures Clouds

[More] [Note: loads slowly]

[Via BoingBoing]

The other ethanol...

As we rush to distill corn into alcohol we are following the example of sturdy Americans who found their own nationalistic pride swell with the introduction of rum - the American gin.

This may seem a strange claim for a nation with as strong a history of militant temperance and Prohibition as ours, yet there's more than a little truth to it. Rum was invented in the Americas -- probably, though not certainly, in Barbados -- and quickly became an important part of the diet in the American colonies, where consumption of alcoholic beverages was very high. Rum and slavery were intertwined, both in the slave trade and on plantations where rum was made. "Demon Rum" became a shibboleth of the temperance movement, and rum itself became one of the most widely consumed alcoholic drinks once Prohibition forced drinkers into speakeasies or onto ships bound for Cuba. During World War II, rum and Coca-Cola "became the de facto national drink of many of the troops," and now the mojito is one of the most popular drinks among the fashionable young people who are bringing new life into the country's old cities.

I have often been puzzled by those who deify the Founding Fathers as saints when both the times and the people involved were very much like us - truly fallible. While some were abstemious Puritans, most enjoyed gambling (below), drinking, and um, wenching.

In other colonies, English attitudes towards gambling and recreation prevailed. These settlers brought with them the view that gambling was a harmless diversion. In these colonies, gambling was a popular and accepted activity. Legal gambling tended to be those types that were considered proper gentlemen's diversions. For example, it took a long time for cock-fighting to become legal because it was not considered a suitable game for gentlemen.

Sounds familiar.

I do not raise this point to diminish our progenitors, but to suggest that, like them, we are capable of far more.

Questions you always wanted to ask...

16. Why Is It Called "Blackmail?"

The first blackmailers were Scottish landlords who exploited farmers by making them pay rent in livestock or services if they couldn’t pay in cash. The goods they had to hand over were usually worth more than the rent owned, and the landlords didn’t make change.

Around the same time, local chieftains started going after the same farmers with the kind of scheme the mafia usually refers to as "selling insurance." They made an offer the farmers couldn’t refuse: pay a fee for protection. If the farmers didn’t pay, then the chieftains would unfortunately be unable to prevent ruffians from destroying crops and sacking property.

The Scottish farmers called both nefarious deals "black" because they associated that color with evil, and because both payments were made in goods rather than silver coins (called "white money"). As for the "mail" part, it doesn’t refer to the postal system. That "mail" comes from the German word for "pouch." The "mail" in blackmail is related to the Old Norse word for "payment" or "agreement."

Neatorama’s note: The photo above is of Monty Python’s skit Blackmail [wiki], where "Michael Palin plays a smarmy television game show host who extorts money from his viewers by threatening to reveal embarrassing or illegal facts about them. One game is "Stop the film," where a scandalous film is played until a phone call is received, and the amount of money needed increases the longer the subject waits."

[More] [My emphasis]

Things don't really change that much, do they?

[via Neatorama]

Maybe it is some of your beeswax...

The bee population in the US is in trouble - I think. While the immediate threat is an invasive mite - varroa destructor - many beekeepers also cite the loss of pesticide-free felds and moncultures of unsuitable crops for a sharp decline in bee numbers.

"Pollination is a valuable service that we're destroying through our land management practices," says Kremen. But she points out that there are many ways conventional farming could change to support bees. One is to grow cover crops like rye and clover, which aren't harvested but instead plowed under to enrich the soil after they've flowered. Farmers could also use roadsides and ditches to restore native plants and create bee-nesting areas. They could reduce their use of pesticides or apply them at night, when bees aren't flying. Growers ought to do these things, Kremen believes, not out of selfless concern for threatened bees but because, in the end, it will protect their own bottom line. Since honeybees -- which now pollinate up to $14 billion worth of crops annually in this country -- are in steep decline, native bees are needed as a backup. The costs of managing bee habitat could be offset by reductions in the amount a farmer spends on renting honeybees, a cost that continues to increase for many crops. In 1999, for example, U.S. plum growers paid about $6.4 million for honeybee pollination.

It is ironic that honeybees are themselves non-native species - so I guess introducing exotic species is OK if it works out - a rather flexible dogma for enviromental purists.

The other question I have is if loss of bees threatens crops like alfalfa (presumably seed alfalfa) why haven't prices skyrocketed? (Be sure to read the part about why they need young, stupid bees)

I also wonder if GM crops wouldn't be better for the bees. (I don't think Bt affects them). That would put GM opponents in an odd place.

The hammock of the future...

Wait 'til Homer Simpson sees this hammock. Rain tight, bug proof and scientifically designed.



Trees not included.

[via Futurismic]

The vital signs are not good...

The latest on the WTO talks is discouraging.

Trade ministers are due to gather again later today at the lakeside offices of the WTO in what could be a final attempt to salvage a deal.

Diplomats say another failure by the six, who have already made several "last ditch" bids for a deal, would leave the 149-state WTO without enough time to complete all the complex details of a global free trade treaty by the end of the year.

The end-year deadline for concluding the Doha Round, which was launched in the Qatari capital amidst much fanfare in late 2001, is dictated by the 2007 expiry of special US presidential powers to negotiate on trade.

The round has been billed as a once-in-a-generation chance to boost global growth and lift millions out of poverty.

While more talks are scheduled for 7/28-9, without progress today, the outlook is poor.

Mr Lamy has set a further two days of talks for July 28 and 29, but diplomats said without some progress this weekend there could be little point in a further session.

"It is difficult to imagine that we can continue coming here without anything happening," EU Agriculture Commissioner Mariann Fischer Boel said as she headed for the talks.

As for the implications, we just don't know. Some opinions from smarter people than me (a very large population):

Longer-term consequences: The longer-term consequences of a Doha Round failure are serious:

-- Loss of WTO credibility: As a forum for negotiation of trade liberalization, the WTO would be seriously discredited. In the absence of any other global instrument, multilateral trade negotiations would be blocked, probably until the next decade.

-- Free trade agreements: Bilateral and regional agreements would proliferate still further, at the expense of the core WTO principle of non-discrimination.

-- Dispute settlement: The WTO's second main function, adjudicating disputes between member countries about the application of its rules, might initially be reinforced. However, this aspect of its work could also eventually suffer.

-- Multilateral cooperation: More broadly, the setback to the WTO would be damaging to the whole concept of multilateral cooperation.

The Doha Round risks collapse because participants, preoccupied with concerns about the effects of opening their markets, are reluctant to make concessions needed to achieve a deal. Possible consequences of failure for the future of the international trading system could be much more serious.

[More]

If that is not pessimistic enough try this:

Fifth, the breakdown of the trade talks would likely precipitate adverse shocks in financial markets. Given current global economic imbalances—with the US current account deficit of more than 7 per cent of GDP and a large and growing Chinese surplus—markets are sensitive already to threats of new trade protectionism and their knock-on effects on capital flows. Markets are good at discounting the value of current commitments but less secure in projecting the impact of new protectionism that could sideswipe financial and currency markets.

[More]

That one caught my attention. As we juggle record oil prices, rising interest rates and a jittery stock market, failure of the WTO could be a significant downer for even wealthy investors. While they may seek the safety of the dollar, I am not so sure any more.

Maybe I'm too late already...

Vinod Khosla, a well-known venture capitalist has ignited a fire under ethanol investing. Although long (68 minutes) this video of his presentation during a visit to Google in March is worth the investment of your time if you farm in the Midwest.

Vinod Khosla is a venture capitalist considered one of the most successful and influential personalities in Silicon Valley. He was one of the co-founders of Sun Microsystems and became a general partner of the venture capital firm Kleiner, Perkins, Caufield & Byers in 1986. In 2004 he formed Khosla Ventures.

On Wednesday, March 29th, by invitation from our co-founders and CEO, our special guest, Vinod Khosla, visited Google to deliver a tech talk about the emergence of ethanol as a viable, market ready, and competitive source of renewable energy.

His presentation has been making huge waves in the investor, policy, and business communities and we are privileged to have had him take time to talk to us about the tremendous potential for ethanol's explosion into the market.

I think information like this is important because as I posted below, the ethanol bandwagon is turning into a juggernaut that will be controlled by very large amounts of invested capital. What was striking to me were his ideas about ag policy and what my life as a farmer should be like.

Because we have insisted on goverment (public) involvment in our lives, we may learn that we also gave the public the right to change our lives to fit their visions - not ours.

Keep an eye on the idea of a "cheap oil tax" to set a floor under petroleum prices.

Waterskiing will never be the same, though...

High gas prices are crushing the power boat industry. Higher interest rates aren't helping either.

Consumer anxiety is clearly drifting from Wal-Mart and General Motors up the economic ladder. "Our products aren't necessities," Brunswick CEO Dusty McCoy said on the conference call. "Customers have to be financially able to complete the purchase, but feel comfortable making the purchase." Thanks to higher interest rates and concerns about employment, the types of people who would be expected to buy these luxury items aren't pulling the trigger. All but the wealthiest of the wealthy are feeling the pinch in some way. McCoy noted that sales of large yachts that its Hatteras unit makes have been strong, but the cruisers, the midsized boats that cost in the low six figures and are the most profitable line, have been particularly weak. The economic tide may still be rising. But it's not lifting all boats.

This perhaps explains the dragon boat craze.

Hogging the covers doesn't help either...

To the surprise of very few husbands scientists have discovered that men sleep better alone. Women are just the opposite. Anyhoo, after sleeping with a partner, men woke up stupider.

I know - how could they tell - ha ha ha.

Maybe Rob and Laura Petrie had it right.

Hard to explain, but worth viewing.

Where the hell is Matt??

[via YouTube][Broadband]

Why we are losing math teachers...



Found some of my old math tests in the basement.

[via Neatorama]

Watch what you eat. Please...

Just when your TiVo has freed you from commercials, the advertising industry finds new routes into your consciousness.



Laser-etched eggs will carry ads for upcoming TV shows for CBS.

Mr. Parker said the destination of eggs was tracked so precisely that he envisioned being able to offer localized advertising, even aiming at specific ZIP codes, to promote events like local food festivals and concerts. He is setting aside a portion of the ads for charities, too, he said. The imprint is applied in the packaging plant, as the eggs are washed, graded and “candled,” or inspected for flaws, when the eggs are held by calipers and moved along a production line at 225 feet a minute. Right before an egg is packaged, laser light is applied to the shell, giving it the etching. Each imprint takes 34 milliseconds to 73 milliseconds, so the processing of eggs is not appreciably slowed down, Mr. Parker said.

Can't those guys just leave us alone? I mean everywhere you look there are ads!! All over. Like right on this very page...

Oh, wait.

Ummm, never mind.

The Great Confused Energy Debate...

Much of the problem with our energy policy is energy ignorance. Most of us rely on intuitive or emotional responses to the complex problem of energy production and consumption, but a little hard information may force re-evaluation.

F'rinstance, while I have written about the perception that all our imported oil comes from the Mideast, in fact only about 1/6 does. Our biggest suppliers are our neighbors to the north and south.

Surprisingly, the U.S. is the third largest oil producing country in the world and the U.S. imports the most oil from Canada and Mexico. Bottom line, the “red states” politically produce energy while the “blue states” consume. If all energy and power were converted to BTUs, the state of Wyoming would produce more than Saudi Arabia.

Now for another shocker. Big Oil's profit margin is less than Big Biotech, Big Software, Big Food, etc.

But wait! There is more: Hummers are better for the environment than hybrids. Really.

The problem with our energy policy is not politics - it's math skills.

STAR WARS on a banjo...

He's pickin' - Darth's grinnin'

What more can I say.

Except I am so very sorry...

[Thanks, Aaron]

It's ALIVE - I tell you! It's ALIVE!!!...

Rising from the open grave, pulling the wooden stake from its chest, the WTO Doha round has entered true zombie status.

Dan - an earnest follower of John's World to whom I have subcontracted the job of monitoring the Washington Post - sent this link *regarding the Undead Trade Talks. The money quote:

The United States is prepared to do more to cut domestic farm subsidies, but needs a signal from the European Union and advanced developing countries that they will cut tariffs deeply enough to generate new trade flows, Schwab said.

"President Bush has indicated the U.S. will be more flexible on domestic support when we see more flexibility on market access from our trading partners," Schwab said.

The flexibility to which she refers derives from your LDP account, comrades.

Then again, it may be all over, after all.

(I love this topic - this could go on for years!)

* The old WP is free but requires registration - which has been OK for me, unless they are the bozos selling my address to the Viagra spammers.