Tuesday, April 06, 2010

Oh, yeah...

We're gaming the system, IMHO.  Consider the results from my county cash rent survey for 2009:

Oddly, I have seen little retreat in my cash rents.  Indeed, the charge ahead continues. So what could be happening?

  •  Producers are not as naive about this data as NASS thinks. No good can come from reporting a high cash rent.  It could add to CRP rental rates, taking ground out of production, for example.
  • We are only getting low rents in the survey.  I did not report mine, for example.
  • Producers are phoning them in low to keep comparables from pushing rates up. Producers need to point to a low average to convince owners what a good deal they are getting.
  • Rents on poorer ground in my county are dropping.
  • Variable cash rents are kicking in more emphatically.
It is possible cash rents have dropped back, but color me highly skeptical. Neighboring counties like Champaign saw a rise of ~5%, for example.

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