Wednesday, March 05, 2008

Is the market still open?...

While I was in Mt. Pleasant, MI speaking to a great group for Michigan Ag Commodities, the rumor broke that ADM was pulling its 2008 fall bids. At least, that's the word I got from a friend. Then Mark Gold, who spoke right before me, mentioned Cargill had followed suit.

[Why the heck does this stuff always happen when I'm on the road? Answer: Maybe I'm on the road too much.]

Not good news for this unsophisticated cash-forward-seller. As usual the early rumor was in the right direction but somewhat wide of the mark.

It seems ADM has stopped contracting 09 (and beyond) BEANS. Nothing else. There have been changes across the industry for more elaborate contracts (NBE, etc.) - mostly higher fees. But according to my Cargill rep (Amy), I can still contract 2010 crops. Once again, I find great value in having someone I can call/e-mail and get a straight answer immediately.

And I just might.

After all, I'm the guy who will deliver 41,000 bushels of $2.58 corn this month (to pay for my "free" grain bin). How bad can I hurt myself after that?

Seriously, I would be really careful acting as a creditor to any elevator by using free delayed pricing or no-price-established contracts. And if my customer is slow paying I would be doubly suspicious. These markets are exceeding most grain marketers' imaginations. And competence.

[Off Topic: the Soaring Eagle Casino Resort was very impressive. I wish my predecessors hadn't pushed/wiped out all our tribes here in Illinois.]

No comments: