Sunday, December 30, 2007

How bad is it?...

A. Really bad.
As the credit paralysis stretches through its fifth month, a chorus of economists has begun to warn that the world's central banks are fighting the wrong war, and perhaps risk a policy error of epochal proportions. [More]

B. Not so bad
As the U.S. savings and loan crisis worsened in the 1980s, analysts tried to top each other's estimates of the debacle's cost to the federal government. Much the same thing is happening now with losses linked to subprime mortgages, with figures of $300 billion to $400 billion being bandied about. A more realistic amount is probably half or less than those exaggerated projections -- say $150 billion. That's hardly chicken feed, though not nearly enough to sink the U.S. economy. [More]

So how are you betting? My guess is most farmers are mildly amused bystanders, and will be until a crisis forces some change in farm policy via subsidies or energy mandates.

As for the credit crisis, I believe it will get much worse, and interest rates could fall below the historic lows of just a few months ago.

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