Thursday, December 13, 2007

Visions of sugarplums...

This oughtta dry up farmer selling.
The bank was positive on agricultural commodities, sharply raising its 12-month-ahead soybean price forecast to $14.50 per bushel from $9.00 on expectations for a fall in acreage and inventories.
It also raised the 12-month-ahead forecast for corn to $5.30 per bushel from $4.40 previously, while the wheat price forecast was raised to $7.50 per bushel from $6.00 previously.
"Ongoing weather-related supply disruptions in wheat and robust demand growth for soybeans from both the biofuel and feed end-use sectors have pushed nominal prices of both of these crops to record-high levels," Goldman said.
"Despite the recent strong performance from soybeans, we believe that both supply and demand drivers will further tighten global soybean fundamentals over 2008 and into 2009, suggesting there are still good investment opportunities in the oilseed." [More]

I don't think my spreadsheet will handle numbers like these.


Anonymous said...

Your spreadsheet? My BRAIN can't handle figures like that. I wonder if I could get a big loan for some new farmland with those numbers?

Anonymous said...

Two thoughts to temper our outlook - exponentially increasing input costs and check out CPI adjusted prices from '74. Corn = 16.95 wheat = 27.34 beans = 60.70

John Phipps said...


You are dead right. The more we look back the more remarkable that spike was. The difference between now and then will be the duration of the price increase.